THANKS EVERYONE 

It was an amazing show of sophisticated voting, of parsing the choices, of substance over emotion, of public interest over self-interest perhaps. The range of choices, from God’s avengers to socialist was all elected.

Some say that there is no diversity in Vermont, the whitest crowd in the New World. Phooey to that, there is so much diversity here that it aches, dirt poor to very rich, tall to short, fat to skinny, halt to Olympian, articulate to stuttering, God fearing to God unacknowledging, licentious to prim and proper, hippie to soldier, flatlander to native-born, teacher to student. And it was celebrated Tuesday. 

THANKS JIM! 

Would the White House been as motivated to help Jim Douglas if it had not been for Jim Jeffords’s putsch? Doubtful. In the end, the Douglas campaign will have spent over a million dollars. The White House probably would have sent two million if needed. There were television and radio ads from time immemorial till the election, full page newspaper ads everywhere day after day, polling, phone calls, mail drops, door to door get-out-the-vote. Nothing like this has a Vermont Republican ever done. And we owe it all to Jeffords. Thanks Jim! 

DON’T MESS WITH VERMONT  

Right. Those bold glory days of old. They will be talking about it in the bars in days to come, how we threw that fastball by ‘em. The move by Jeffords focused the White House like never before. Bush did not go door to door, but went state to state, city to city in pursuit of fifty-one senators. No more whinny Daschle. No more Leahy’s grandstanding. No more supercilious Jeffords. We think that Don’t Mess With Texas still rules in Washington.

They are fitting out utility rooms now for their new offices, ordering up some string and Dixie cups for communication. It is as if God speaks again, "Because thou hast done this, thou art cursed... upon they belly shalt thou go, and dust shalt thou eat all the days of thy life."

It is not just that the White House was mad. There were forty-nine of Jim’s best friends, his fellow Republicans, who unjustly got the shaft. It is not just them. There were thousands of staffers for committees and senate offices who wanted to lend a hand to the policies of their choosing and study. They too were hung out to dry. Jeffords and his staff members are probably the most hated folks on capitol hill ever. The contrast of being on the top of the world to being in the total pits might lead many to dust off their resumes.

We were attending Miss Briggs Kindergarten the last time the White House and both house of Congress are in Republican hands for a two-year term. It is not that Mr. Chaffee, RINO from Rhode Island, might not jump, but then it will only be fifty to forty-nine with Louisiana still in a runoff.

Perhaps retirement will follow humiliation. New blood will be nice. Two generations in place is at least a generation too long. 

THANKS VERMONT MEDIA 

Ah the ease of good feelings in the post election mood. We thank everybody. Really, the media did a darn good job for the most part, bringing to us debate coverage after debate coverage. Even political junkies were pleading, no more; I can't take another debate. If they did not cover and broadcast the debates, they would not have happened in a sense. In politics, if it is not on television, it did not happen.

Just when you were sure that you could not take another politician, on came Sunday’s marathon debate, better entertainment was hard to find. With the stage crowded with everybody but the ghost of Marley, candidates of all stripes, one recently wearing stripes, appeared with views ranging from a league or two right of Attilla to views to the left of Lenin. Great theater, all live coming into your living room.

Thanks to the media, the voters may have had more information, and more direct unfiltered information, upon which to make their decisions. 

DAILY RACING SHEET 

The great racing rag, the New York Post, today handicapped the presidential sweepstakes. Our own Howard Dean and the great Reverend Al Sharpton are at the rear of the field at 100 to 1 longshots. 

THE TRANSITION 

Former Governor for life, now governor for two months, Howard Dean announced that he spent Thursday with "governor-elect Jim Douglas and his transition team." Has a nice ring to it. Then Dean corrected himself. "Jim is not officially governor-elect but he will be the next governor of Vermont. The outcome is not unclear."

The governor was full of praise for Douglas, his transition team, and all of us. "They are very experienced. We have been meeting with both Racine’s and Douglas’s transition teams for about a month now.

"I think that Jim Douglas will be a good governor and a governor which will make the people proud. The state remains moderate and I am very pleased about that. Our views on the budget and fiscal responsibility are very similar. I am very confident in his ability to do the job.

"The voters thought that it was time for a change and I agree. With the change in Congress, it will help to have a Republican governor in this situation."

When asked about his change of rhetoric about Douglas since the election, Dean said, "It is time to put aside the more partisan approach." 

DEAN HANDICAPS THE SPEAKER’S RACE  

"It’s (Representative) John Tracy’s to lose. All he has to do is hold the Democrats, get all the Progressives and have two of the three Independents. However, the incumbent speaker has made promises and friends... And I can't tell you how much I appreciate what (Speaker) Walter (Freed) did last spring to help us balance the budget." 

PREDICTIONS 

We hit the nail on the head, we missed by a mile, maybe even an ocean or galaxy or two.

THE FEDS

One out of two here. For the house we suggested 221-213 and Bernie. The real world has it at 227-203 and Bernie and four yet to call. Close. This race was historic. You may have to dust off your Encyclopedia Britannica to find a year in which the party of the president gained seats in their first off year election.

The GOP and Bush were fantastic in keeping Iraq, terror, arrests, and war always on the front burner. Daschle allowed the vote on Iraq to linger until just before election. The safely seated folks did not really want to go out and kiss babies. The competitive ones were not released to do so. All pretty stupid.

We predicted that the Democrats would increase their margin in the senate fifty-two. Instead they shrank to forty-seven. Ouch, another one.

We thought that the liberal love-in following Senator Paul Wellstone’s death would remind people how lovely and idealistic liberal values are. All that peace, love and tie dye. Taking care of others, lifting everybody out of poverty, providing health care and love for all. The mean old GOP merely provides opportunities for citizens to provide all those benefits themselves. Or as Nicole Ertman, a UVM GOPer wrote, "They think with their hearts, which I consider a charming and admirable prospect, but that cannot stand up to our logic."

Instead, the mean spiritedness of booing GOP mourners and the cheering for the Clintons and the Kennedys was too much for the folks on Main Street. The prim and proper mores of Midwestern American were offended, offended enough so that fewer than 41,000 characters handed the senate back to the GOP in their victories in Minnesota and Missouri.

We only hope that the Senate Republicans show Trent Lott, the creator of all this mess, the door and greet one like Senator Bill First, who engineered this comeback, as leader.

CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES

Governor

We suggested that the race for governor was closer than anyone was saying, Douglas would finish between zero and three points behind Racine. He finished three points ahead. We wrote that more than fifty five percent would vote for change and fifty-seven did. Not bad.

We regret that Racine did not campaign on his beliefs and instead evolved. He lost anyway. He rose to forty two percent and could never move an inch beyond. We believe that there is a constituency for the liberal views that have been driving Vermont over the last decade. But the constituency was always a minority one imposing its beliefs and values on the majority. This result in part confirms that theory. If Racine had really run as a liberal we believe that the result would have been similar but more conclusive.

We take some credit for driving the jobs agenda. We began to pound that drum months ago, we pushed the O’Neal Report results a year and a half ago. This theme was picked up by others and in many ways dominated the election agenda.

Lieutenant Governor

Our guess was that Dubie would win but they result on Election Day would be tied. Dubie won by nine points. Right but wrong. He won but by quite the margin.

We heard anecdotally that women in the end just could not vote for Shumlin despite the fact that he, Dean, Racine, Kunin, Freyne, Hemingway and others beat the pro-choice drum hard over the last two weeks. As relayed to us by pro-choice women, "I wanted to vote for Shumlin, I went to the polls intending to vote for Shumlin, and I just could not vote for Shumlin."

We think that we may have had something to do with that. Our short story on Shumlin’s affair with a subordinate, magnified by your calls to talk radio, and read widely via Inside Track’s repetition of the story seemed to unsettle otherwise supportive females.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

We said Sorrell would win big, no brainer. We wrote Markowitz by fifteen and she won by twenty-two. We thought Spaulding by eighteen and he won by twenty-one. We had Ready by ten and she won by eleven. Not so bad.

The Senate

We were way off the mark. Should not have been. Hope over experience once again. We went with a tie and it was a Democrat landslide of nineteen to eleven. We were correct about Franklin County predicting the Republican would lose the former GOP open seat, about the GOP holding the open seat in Bennington, and that Rutland, Chittenden-Grand Isle, Orleans-Essex-Franklin-Lamoille, Caledonia-Orange, Washington and Windsor would stay the same.

We hoped that Kate Purcell might find a place in Chittenden and though close it was not to be. In Windham County we hoped again but it is the most liberal county and in spite of spirited efforts, no go for GOP. In Addison County, probably over $50,000 of targeted mail led to Tom Bahre's defeat, it also took out Representatives Mann and George.

In Lamoille County Susan Bartlett ran a clever race, a traditional Democrat class baiting race, a race who messages once again were false, misleading, or outright lies. She slammed Cathy Voyer for out-of-county money and lots of it, while once again she benefited from tens of thousands of concealed out-of-state money spent on her behalf in a targeted coordinated way by PACs and the party. Winning by 181 votes, she benefited by the redistricting which took Eden and their 2000 GOP margin of 140 votes and shoved them into Orleans County.

We missed Orange County too. Shouldn’t have. Bill Corrow told us that he was a long shot. Not only did he lose a 257 vote margin when Shumlin moved Orange out of Orange County, as a school board member he angered and alienated nearly everyone in Williamstown’s budget battles. Being within 346 votes was a victory of sorts.

The House

This was embarrassing. We missed the whole thing. We predicted eighty-two GOP and so on. Not even close, and maybe even a swing back to Democrat rule. How could that be?

At the 1988 Democrat Convention, a fellow Texan, Richards or Hightower, spoke of Vice President George Herbert Walker Bush of being born on third base and thinking that he had hit a triple. In our case, the Republicans in 2000 won eighty-three house seats and congratulated themselves. The eighty-three seats were won by voter outrage over civil unions. Many would have just as well voted for FIDO if they were opposed to civil unions.

Secondly, they won because of a concerted grassroots organization effort by Take Back Vermont which boosted turnout in some towns to an unprecedented turnout over ninety percent.

It is not that the GOP and their PACs did not organize, recruit, raise money and all. They did. But others drove the energy and the GOTV effort. Those others did nothing in 2002. The GOP did not adjust to the new reality. Up to the end, insiders were confident of not only holding their own, but picking up a half dozen seats. 

THE GUNSLINGER RODE INTO TOWN 

On the other hand, preeminent grassroots organizer and pathfinder Marty Rouse did come to town, often, and stayed awhile. The pro civil unions PACs mobilized, raised hundreds of thousands of dollars from around the country. In another beautifully coordinated attack, the Democrat Party, the House Democrat Committee, the Fund for Families, the Senate Victory Fund, the Chittenden County Senate Fund, the Conservation PAC and the Socially Responsible Business PAC probably spent over $500,000 in targeted direct mail both against conservative Republican candidates who voted for the repeal of civil unions. Those whom they did not defeat, they probably silenced. Money talks. Give it up, civil unions are here to stay. 

THE JILTED SNARL 

It was strange to listen to and watch the aggressive and withering fire directed at Governor Dean by reporters Peter Freyne and Tracy Schmaler.

It is all your fault that Racine lost. You angered folks by all your presidential travels. You angered them with the state paying your trooper on all those trips. You didn't campaign with Doug. There is even a new website, AngryDemocrats.com. Many folks voted for Douglas just because of you.

Only a rumor, but it is a rumor that Tracy was to become Racine’s new press secretary. No wonder she was so hot. Sue Allen went from the press to press secretary. So did Peter Freyne. This is not healthy. If you are covering the race for governor when you are or are expecting or are hoping to be the new press secretary, might that not color your reportage? Even if the rumor is groundless, this has happened before and is not good for the credibility and legitimacy of the process. It does not help the citizens believe that all is well in their republic. 

EGG ON FACE 

In what must have been one of the major inappropriate and plain wrong media comments was the one in the Stowe Reporter. After endorsing Cathy Voyer over Susan Bartlett, they went on to write something like this: While endorsing Voyer, we want to acknowledge and thank Susan Barlett for her years of service. Cool. As if Bartlett and her supporters were not motivated enough already. As if Stowe or the Stowe Reporter could write the election script.

A triumphant Bartlett then presented herself on Wednesday to say, "I hope Stowe will help me bring down the wall of prejudice and distrust between the town and the rest of the county." This from same one who just helped to build it. Now she goes on to replace Peter Shumlin as senate pro tem. At least the Democrats are consistent. 

WEB SITE ELECTION COVERAGE REVIEW  

Not having television, we chose to follow the election via the Web. Fascinating and addictive. We visited the web sites of the Burlington Free Press, WCAX, the Rutland Herald, the Times Argus, the state parties, the secretary of state, Vermont Pubic Radio, and assorted weeklies and radio stations.

The parties, the secretary of state, the weeklies, and the radio stations we visited including VPR had no dynamic ongoing results. The Times Argus had some early ones and then gave up it seemed. The Rutland Herald did not seem to post anything after 9:56 PM.

The Free Press only posted the Chittenden Senate race and the Chittenden results by town for governor and lieutenant governor. They were interesting to follow. We noted that when Douglas won Jericho, district of liberal Representative Gail Symington, that maybe he could win. The Free Press did not include Colchester as a Chittenden County town for the governor and lieutenant governor’s data however.

WCAX had good consistent data on all statewide, senate and legislative races. It was slow in coming though, the senate not until Wednesday morning. And they went to bed about 12:30 AM.

The best site was not surprisingly the Washington Post. Their data on Vermont’s statewide races was about an hour faster than Vermont’s best, WCAX. Their graphics were great. You could move in seconds from state to state, from race to race, up and down the ticket. Fascinating. You could see and feel they GOP sweep building. 

THANKS TO THE DPR FAMILY 

The Dwinell Political Report has been produced weekly in one form or another for more three and a half years. And that is thanks to thousands. First, you the readers. We were curious whether or not one could create a sense of community on the web. We were curious if one could create a sense of community via a newsletter based on a common interest.

We think that we have. We hear from many of you via letters, others via requests for information, others in conversation, and others by being a fly on the wall. You let us into your lives, to have a conversation and it works.

Many of you contribute directly to these pages, some via letters, some via leads, some with stories themselves which we then edit. There is many a long night when our webmaster is kept up well past midnight correcting, editing, organizing, preparing to send and sending this newsletter to you.

We have contributors, sponsors, and even the odd advertiser who have recognized and supported our efforts through the years. We have adversaries who read what we write. To all of you from all of us, a huge thank you. 

*** THE ROAR OF THE CROWD: EMAIL ***

VERMONT-NEA ELECTION GUIDE 

»» Rob Skinner, South Hero: The VT-NEA "Election Guide 2002" Booklet just arrived this afternoon, and Surprise, Surprise... Every Democrat was endorsed from Bernie to Mitzi Johnson.

Oh, it didn't matter that Mitzi (Grand Isle, Chittenden 1) had not responded to the VT-NEA questionnaire and that she's a first time candidate with no governing experience at the any level - she's a Democrat so naturally she has a good caring, bleeding heart. It's a rubber stamp by the VT-NEA so she gets the "thumbs up " icon next to her name. Like Mitzi, Paul Cheesman a Republican from the same district did not to respond to the VT-NEA questions. But unlike Mitzi he has loads of school board and selectboard experience. But Paul is Republican so the VT-NEA gives him the virtual "thumbs down." By VT-NEA criteria he must be a meanspirited, bigoted and intolerant Republican - like all Republicans.

The VT-NEA never met a Republican they liked and never met a Democrat they couldn't find any reason to deny an endorsement. But I'll say this - this year many more candidates of both parties did not respond to the VT-NEA as compared to 2000. Even Democrats seem to be sensing that the flagrantly biased VT-NEA is all too transparent to have any real impact on the electorate. 

TOUCHED BY A BARTLETT 

»» Ed Wilson, Morrisville: In this weeks News and Citizen the Susan Bartlett ad lists Rose Lambert as a supporter. If she were still alive, Rose would probably be supporting Susan Bartlett, but Rose Lambert died about a year and a half ago. Perhaps Sen. Bartlett is pulling out all stops and contacting "Crossing Over" for additional supporters. I guess that deceased supporters are OK during the campaign, but I sure hope that they don't get to vote for her! 

NEED BEVER'S TOUCH 

»» Betty Ferraro, Rutland: Please tell Fred Bever he is really needed back in Rutland for some FAIR reporting. The Herald readers are being suffocated with extreme one-sided reporting; for instance, when their reporters were told 'NOT to cover the Mayor's endorsement of Jim Douglas' when two television stations showed up to do just that. Republican letters to the editor are not being printed, with some subscribers saying they are discontinuing their subscriptions. How about the Dwinell organization buying the Rutland Herald?? Then we would have true, accurate reporting. 

HERDING CATS 

»» Kevin Goodridge, Albany: I read with interest your predictions for the 2002 elections and unfortunately you may be right. Here in "six pack" country there seem to be some "Republicans" who maybe have an agenda against their own party. One example is we have a former conservative Republican House member endorsing a mildly liberal democrat candidate. This endorsement is on the democrat's candidate brochure and in the former members place of business. To top this off this candidate opposes all that our former house member supported. Another example is a Republican town chair running as an Independent. GO FIGURE. It looks as if this County Republican Committee has some work/house cleaning to do after the elections. 

WHAT ABOUT THE MALE?  

»» Karen R. Makowski, Shelburne: In reference to parental notification...don't be fooled by the reason for this proposal. It is not to protect our teenage daughters. It is to erode a young woman's right to decide for herself what happens to her body. If the goal of the bill was to protect our teen girls, the bill would require paternity testing to determine the father. If it is a teen boy, his family would be notified to help him with the trauma of an unwanted teen pregnancy. If the 'father' is not a teen under 18, then the bill would require we charge them with statutory rape and send them off to jail!

There are good reasons why the pediatricians of our state oppose this law. It is bad for the 30 or so young women who face this hard choice. For my daughters, access to safe health care is more important than my need to know! 

THEY LIKE US 

»» Ed Wilson, Morrisville: Thank you for the great work that you do on the "Political Report." I really appreciate your efforts.

»» Dennis C. McMahon, Esq, Burlington: This is GREAT stuff and I want to thank you for sending it; I really appreciate it. 

ARROGANCE 

"Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who is expected to run for president in 2004, said he was not worried Wednesday by poll results saying people in his home state would not vote for him. 'Well, my reaction is that I'm kind of thinking that it's two years away,' Dean said. 'I think people are just a little angry that I'm not going to be governor anymore.'" http://www.thechamplainchannel.com/news/1751215/detail.html  

THE PHOENIX RISES 

"It is 1:52 in the morning. The Republicans have won the Senate. The Republicans have won the House (and gained seats) Our next Governor, Republican Jim Douglas is up with 45% of the vote to Doug Racine's 42% with 96% reporting. Our next Lieutenant Governor, Republican Brian Dubie has soundly thrashed his opponents with a 41% share to Shumlin's 32% and Pollina's 25%.

"Kudos go out to the Douglas/Dubie team including UVMers Nathan Rice, Dennise Casey, and Jimmy Candido - all of whom put in ENORMOUS amounts of time into the campaigns. If you see them walking around campus, be sure to congratulate them.

"Everyone who made phone calls, everyone who put up signs, everyone who participated in lit-drops and sign-waves, wrote letters to the editor, everyone who VOTED made a difference. What was it the Cynic said last week? Racine and Shumlin look for Clean Sweep? Well they found it." --Jon G. Kantor, UVM Republicans 

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