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The Dwinell Political Report
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THE DWINELL POLITICAL REPORT September 27, 2002 Vol. 3, No. 38 Subscribe here *** NEWS AND ANALYSIS *** DENNIS THE MENACE It was Bernie the menace that David Hale lit out after Wednesday evening at the twenty-fifth anniversary celebration of the Central Vermont Development Corporation. Hale, a native of Saint Johnsbury, is the Global Chief Economist for the Zurich Financial Services Group. Last week he gave talks in Zurich and Paris, this week in Montpelier and Lyndonville, and next week in Singapore and Beijing. "Sanders is bad for Vermont. We have the highest ratio in the country of exports to GDP, twenty five percent. Vermont leads the nation. Yet our delegation wants to halt globalization and foreign trade. "It is not just that Sanders's views would hurt Vermont, foreign trade has been the key pillar of our foreign policy. Sanders's being against free trade is being against our war on terrorism. War on terrorism means that we must be more international, not less, in order to help economies escape from poverty and isolation. "Vermont can not be part of the war on terror with Sanders's views. He is not just detrimental to Vermont but to our economy and the United States. Countries have tried Sanders's economic policy of isolation and trade barriers and they encourage terrorists. Take the Arab countries which are isolationist and have trade barriers. They have fourteen percent of the world's population and only four percent of the GDP. "It is a moral anomaly that we have someone like Sanders represent us in Vermont."
KUDOS FOR WASHINGTON? David Hale said that to his great surprise, the American economy strengthened after September 11, 2001 instead of weakening. He gave full credit to Washington. Because of the dropping of interest rates from 3.5 percent to 1.75 percent, the $180 billion extra spending on defense and homeland security, the airline bailout, and lastly, trade policy which quickly reopened our borders to trade, the economy grew at a three percent rate instead of what he thought might have been a drop in GDP.
HALE DOES VERMONT Hale quickly analyzed the "mediocre" performance of the Vermont economy under Governor Howard Dean in the '90's. Vermont ranked 38th in economic growth. Growth in per capita income was only 1.9 percent while in New Hampshire it was 3.3 percent. He warned that an IBM shut down would cause a twenty percent drop in Vermont's tax base. Part of the problem, he said, is that Vermont has not adjusted its regulations and tax policy to reflect the changes in the business marketplace. Businesses need to operate quickly in the new economy to be competitive and Vermont's regulatory process is anything but quick. It is also expensive. Also, there has been a constituency in Vermont for income redistribution. Today only 2.9 percent of the population pays half the taxes. Lastly, Hale stated that while Vermont has some good economic statistics to support the new economy, such as 9th in Internet usage, 5th in scientists and engineers, 13th in high tech jobs, 14th in patents, 16th in workforce education, and 17th in research and development spending, the government has not used this base to good advantage. "We are 50th in 'digital government' (using the Internet to interact with the government), 48th in broadband access, 39th in information technologists, and 34th in initial public offerings."
THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM The September 25th filing of campaign finance reports seem to represent the lull before the storm. The spending patterns did not show a clear strategy or focus. Recall that in the elections in 2000, the Shumlin hand was hidden until the October 25th filing when suddenly for the first time the breadth of his fundraising and spending to hold the senate at all costs was revealed. GOVERNOR Douglas Douglas has raised and spent the most, raising just over $111,000 in the last month and spending $99,000. The big donor was the Republican National Committee with another $50,000 for a total of $100,000. But there was also steady progress finding $400 donors, one after another, to support his efforts. He also recognized a $20,000 in-kind contribution from the state party for the organizational costs of the Cheney event. Jim has upped his spending on research with almost $14,000 spent with Public Opinion Strategies in Alexandria, VA. He also spent over $14,000 on collateral printing with Sullivan, Brownell and Davies and $47,000 on media purchases via Smith Consulting. Racine Racine's campaign coffers are being abetted by the largesse of the Democrat National Committee to the tune of $100,000 this period. An additional $2,716 from the Vermont Democrat Party puts his total party support at $142,730, a bit ahead of Douglas. Doug has beggared himself to the tune of $4,980. His spending has not included any media, preferring to continue his gathering storm of research, literature, signs, and direct voter contact. But soon, the airwaves will be full, bumping off the likes of your newsletter's recent television campaign supporting WCAX's You Can Quote Me. Hogan Though outspending Racine by some $50,000 for his eight percent, Hogan's fundraising was only $12,986. His lending is stuck at $53,000, in fact he even reimbursed himself for $1,460 in travel expenses. He continues to support staff and enjoy participating in the debates but is doing no paid voter contact or any sort. It is interesting that Hogan represents no political party and has received no recorded votes recognized in the Canvassing Committee report, yet he is included in all the debates and polling. It is also widely believed that he takes more votes away from Douglas than Racine. On the other hand, the Progressive Party is a major party organized in almost half of Vermont's towns. Yet their candidate for governor is not invited. It is widely believed that he would take more votes from Racine than Douglas. LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR Shumlin Peter has yet to hit the airwaves but has signs, bus ads, and helium, at least $53.67 of it. He continues to challenge the general rules for independent contractors by failing to withhold takes as required of every other employer in Vermont. His $25,020 of contributions included a generous gift from his brother, and his wife, another from the Vermont Democrat Party, $1,200 from the Flior family of Potomac, MD, and $400 from Disney's Michael Eisner. Pollina Pollina raised more than his opponents in this reporting cycle, almost all from Vermonters, with his party chipping in $1,483 and Anthony himself $2,720. He continued to pay both the Sanders and Zatz for consulting. He also spent $5,000 with Resolution Productions of South Burlington. Dubie Brian Dubie bought $6,847 worth of lawn signs from SEA of Ocala, FL, spent $6,261 for advertising on WCAX, and paid Steve Cassarino of Rutland and Martha Hanson of Saint Johnsbury as consultants. His contributors are many of the party faithful, but they do not give unless asked and are duly impressed. TREASURER Amazingly, Ed Flanagan reports that he has spent $235,402 in garnering 33 percent of the votes, 9,620. Of that, $184,922.39 came from Ed himself. It was a good season for the media companies of Vermont and the post office. Not so good for Ed. Jeb Spaulding reported deficit spending, not the right first step for our budding new treasurer. He spent $95,774 and raised $93,369 including $11,400 from Jeb or his family. John LaBarge raised only about half of what Jeb did, and spent a bit on signs and a brochure. SECRETARY OF STATE Like the Spauldings, Markowitz almost matched Jeb with $10,931 from her family, about a third of what she has raised to date. Jerry Diamond who gave $200 to Hogan, gave $200 to Deb. She is husbanding her resources, spending only $461. The I Like Mike campaign received about half of what Markowitz did. His expenditures show little in the way of voter contact: labels, pins, letterhead and envelopes, printing, web site, pictures, and bank charges. On the surface none of this wins elections. ATTORNEY GENERAL Not much going on in this race. The GOP Drown has yet to file, guess that means that he has not yet raised or spent $500. Progressive Cindy Hill raised $1,710, almost half from her family. She bought some lawn signs, made some copies and fed some volunteers. William Sorell raised over $9,000 without breaking a sweat, bought some signs and waits for his eventual victory. Louise McCarron gave to Bill Sorrell and Dubie. AUDITOR OF ACCOUNTS Bruce Hyde spent not even a farthing while raising $1,075. Incumbent Ready raised $7,298, most in donations of less than $100. She bought some lawn signs, stamps and a bus ad. No earthquakes here.
GOT A WEDGIE In any election, there are many issues the candidates agree on. There are others that they don't. Of those issues they do not agree on, some are important to the voters and some are not. Ideally every candidate finds issues that are important to the voter where he/she clearly has differences with their opponent. These would be "wedge" issues, issues where you can divide the electorate to your advantage. One would have thought that the election for governor would provide many wedge issues as the historical differences between Racine and Douglas were clear. Racine favored gay marriage, Douglas did not. Racine opposed the Circ, Douglas did not. Douglas favored permit reform, Racine did not. Douglas favored reforming Act 60, Racine did not. Racine favored a single payer insurance system, Douglas did not. RACINE THE DARWINIAN Racine deftly changed his position on each of these potential wedge issues by saying that politics is an evolutionary process and that his views had evolved to where today, he and Douglas pretty much agreed on all these issues with some slight coloring. Voters got lost in the details of their minute differences. Last week though signaled a breakthrough for Racine in finding a wedge issue that might have traction. First, Vermont Public Radio decided to test what Vermonters thought about the constitutional duty of the legislature to elect a governor and lieutenant governor when the electorate declined to give anyone 50.1 percent of the vote. They found that 52 percent of Vermonters opposed the legislature deciding these contests. Nancy Remsen in the Free Press wrote about the "split on election-politicians talk about possibility of legislature choice." Chris Graff devoted his weekly column to the question, what would you do if the election were thrown to you? Tracy Schmaler then contributed a front page story about the Democrats asking the Republicans to take the pledge to abide by the first past the post rule and throw out the constitution. Vermont This Week weighed in with thoughts on how this might become THE issue of the election. It is the media's "job" to make this issue into a wedge issue. As Chris Roy, a Burlington attorney and Republican activist, pointed out in a letter to the editor, the Democrats did not listen to the "polls" when it came to civil unions, they did not listen to the "polls" when it came to Act 60 reform, they did not listen to the "polls" which showed 72 percent of Vermonters supporting the parental notification bill, and Howard Dean recently appointed "the best available candidate", a Democrat, to replace a Republican who resigned mid-term. So now why do the Democrats suddenly want the legislature to respect the "polls?"
CANVASSING COMMITTEE TIDBITS Guess who won the Democrat nomination for Congress? Right, with 2,583 votes Bernie Sanders. Was he happy? No, he was mad. Six staff members called to make sure that they understood that he did not want the nomination. Then Bernie himself spoke to Secretary of State Markowitz telling the office for the seventh time, I do not want nor will I accept the Democrat nomination for Congress. Ms. Markowitz also won the Progressive nomination for secretary of state which she turned down. Neither Spaulding or Ready gained the Progressive nomination. Two representative candidates withdrew, Jim Harvell-D in Frank Mazur's district and G. Blake Keller-R in Michael Reese's district.
SHUMLIN FINISHES LAST Evidence of Senator Peter Shumlin's (D-Windham) woes popped up in the recent primary results. If you look at the standings among statewide Democrats, Shumlin finished last: the combined Flanagan/Spaulding vote-28,710; Secretary of State Deb Markowitz-25,737; Lieutenant Governor Douglas Racine-25,522; Attorney General William Sorrell-24,693; Auditor of Accounts Elizabeth Ready-24,149; and pulling up the rear Senator Peter Shumlin-22,633. In Windham County, his friends and neighbors appeared to take issue with his behavior by going out of their way to not only not vote for Peter, but to take the time to write-in another name. For example, in the treasurer's race in Windham County, there were seventeen write-in votes, in the secretary of state's race, there were twenty-nine write-in votes. But in the race for the Democrat nomination for lieutenant governor between Shumlin and nobody else, there were two hundred and thirty-seven write-in votes or seven percent of 3,372 he received from Windham County.
WHAT'S WRONG WITH DEBBIE Got me. Deb Markowitz is running for her third term as secretary of state. How we interact with her office most often is through the campaigns and elections division. It has never been better. She gets out and about, gives out those public service awards. Sure, access with the Internet could be better. But why would the left leaning Vermont State Employees Association throw their support to her opponent, Republican Mike Bertrand? Is there any link between anyone who works at the secretary of state's office and the Employees Union's office?
TWO TERMS TOO LONG For years now, many veteran state house professionals have told DPR that "Dean has stayed two terms too long." We concur and these statistics support that. Dean has certainly been AWOL this past year, but his heart and focus have been elsewhere for some time now. In the rapidly changing economic climate, Vermont has been asleep at the switch, the switch to the new economy has occurred, and Vermont, though technically prepared in most areas, has not had a government capable of moving us into the 21st century. A good opportunity squandered, a people disserved. Dean has abandoned his power but he has not relinquished it.
JERK Driving into downtown Montpelier to buy our morning bagel, we parked beside a new state highway sign, or so we thought. It read, "Please do not drive like a jerk." Knowing it applied to our driving from time to time, we thought, good, that rather explains it all. It was the official size, shape and color. Dismounting from our trusty stead, we noticed from the back that the sign was wooden. Disappointingly, it was gone the next morning.
NEWS FROM THE FRONT This from a University of Vermont Republican Club member regarding the protesters at the Cheney event. "This being Burlington, (only 20 minutes from Vermont) there was the usual compliment of freaks and protesters, among whom was the wealthiest man inside or outside the hangar, Jerry Greenfield, founder of Ben and Jerry's Homemade. They held up signs that displayed no evidence of having been encumbered by the thought process, my favorite reading, "BUSH IS A MOTHERF*****." Undisrupted by protesters' chant or their beating of drums, an excellent time was had by all. "Exhausted by their effort, the protesters got into their Land Rover, Lexus, and Saab automobiles and drove back to Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Burlington, while I found my friend's Volkswagen (mine was in the shop) and rode home."
MORE NEWS FROM THE FRONT Another report from the Cheney event. "We parked a bit away from the hangar on a side road proudly displaying a Douglas bumper sticker on the back of our van. After the event, filled with pride, we jumped in our car to soon find we had a flat tire. We pulled over and then pulled a self-tapping sheet metal screw from the tire. Coincidence... or a trustafarian troublemaker who grew up in a starter castle in the Connecticut suburbs?"
UPDATE We wrote weeks back about the state's threat to force the Vermont Summer Festival Horse Show in Dorset to undergo the Act 250 review process. The horse show dumps about $10,000,000 on the local economy each summer. They come, they set up, they clean up, they go. Next year they may set up in New York, as the district coordinator determined that next year they must apply for an Act 250 permit. But wait, they got a reprieve when the Supreme Court ruled that district coordinators do not have the power to haul them into the Act 250 process, but affected parties may. Stay tuned. Two years ago, another state agency, the Agency of Transportation, closed Romeo Pelletier's business in Barre for failing to erect a curb in front of their business. The state then installed those concrete barriers you usually find along the interstate, shutting his business. They appeared to have chosen the day before Thanksgiving to bless the Pelletier family business. Pelletier squeaked, squawked, and yelled. This week the state, without admitting any wrong doing, presented the Pelletier family with $17,500 of your tax dollars as compensation for its stupidity. So you get to pay to place the barriers, to remove the barriers, the state's legal bills, Pelletier's legal bills, and his lost earnings. Do we have a great government or what? Finally, words of celebration from UVMGOP: "Bring Dick Cheney, whoever, let's celebrate our political coup of the semester." They received a standing O at a recent GOP meeting.
*** MEDIA NOTES *** DOUBLE KUDOS TO THE TIMES ARGUS First the Times Argus ran a wonderfully chilling series on the heroin problem in central Vermont. It was so personal and tragic that we were reminded of Janet Cooke, the Washington Post Pulitzer Prize writer, who created an 8-year-old heroin addict as a composite youth to enhance her story. There were people we knew, suffering openly with a terrible problem. In order to address any problem, you need to shine a light on it and the Times Argus did that beautifully. Then, to help celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Central Vermont Economic Development Corporation (CVEDC), published at its own expense a complete insert chronicling the efforts of the CVEDC. Now there is a real community paper.
VALLEY NEWS MISREPRESENTS? No, it couldn't be. The headline went clear across the top of page one in 36 point type, "Daschle Slams Bush for Iraq Remarks." Surprised as we believed Bush to be working well with Congress on trying to pass an Iraq resolution, we read on. We read through five columns on page one and found no quotes from Bush about Iraq. We slogged on to the back page and three more columns before we discovered that the Valley News had made it all up. Bush had said, by not passing the homeland security bill with the flexibility in managing the employees and instead kowtowing to the union demands, "the Senate is more interested in special interests in Washington and not interested in the security of the American People." Though the story under the inflammatory headline finally explained that his remarks had nothing to do with Iraq, the editors seem to have decided that it was time to trim the president's sails just a bit.
HIGHER TURNOUT "Primary turnout dismal, roughly 10 percent of voters" This was the headline in the Rutland Herald on the day after the primary election. Well, actually this is not true for two reason. First, the "Official Report of the Canvassing Committee" shows that the turnout was 14.9 percent. Secondly, the size of the registered voter pool, 409,240, is "inflated due to statutorily mandated delay in removing names..." In Vermont a person must miss two consecutive general elections before the Town Clerk may, if she/he has the time or interest, contact the missing voter at his/her official place of residence to determine is they are still residents of the town. If they do not respond, then the Board of Civil Authority may remove their names from the voter list. Maybe turnout was over twenty percent, certainly not a great showing, but twice what Vermonters were led to believe by their Daily Astonisher.
HOW DO YOU FEEL? We hope that you are all having a wonderful day and feel chipper. We like you, we care. But when Chris Graff ends his column answering the question, What would you do if the election were thrown to you?, writing "...question your legislative candidates to see how they feel," we are bugged. Do we really care how they feel? Do they feel apprehensive, ambivalent, serene, or angry? Maybe their spouse cares, we don't. We do care how they act and are curious about what they think. Unfortunately, it is not just Chris. It seems the whole country now uses "what do you think" and "how do you feel" as if the two were interchangeable.
*** THE ROAR OF THE CROWD: EMAIL *** THE BUSINESS EXODUS »» Paul Chandler, Newport: I do about 20-25% of my business in the State of New Hampshire. You know, the place where many companies move their Vermont facilities to. I have been told on more than one occasion that Governor Dean is one of the best governors that New Hampshire has ever had. Why he and others continue to hide their heads in the sand is beyond me. Vermont is NOT business friendly. 1. Not building the Circ. We will never be like Boston. Public Transportation will only be a little used supplement no matter how much it is trumpeted. Why not at least get rid of car idling which probably pollutes more than moving vehicles getting to their destinations more quickly and efficiently? GETTING FIRED »» Pete Chagnon, Burlington: So someone complains because you are too partisan? That is true, but isn't everyone who can think or is at least semi-conscious? The problem with your report is not as much it's partisanship ( a constitutional right) but because it's the wrong partisanship for these people. Heaven forbid that the great cesspool referred to as political correctness should be challenged. I don't always agree with your partisanship myself, but I'll defend your right to be that no matter what. To the editor of that rag called Vermont business whatever- PHHHFT.
YOU GOTTA PAY TO PLAY »» Joel Williams, Libertarian Candidate for Governor, Poultney: I read with interest your piece "Don't Participate". This was in reference to an editorial suggesting Salmon not run. The BFP ran an editorial several weeks ago which justified keeping "Third Parties" out of any "debate"-like forum because of the tight race and the 50% majority rule. I heard no outcries. It is humorous, in that, the press continues to invite Con Hogan to these press outings as they did with Anthony Pollina during the last election. I suppose that "major party status" really means having more than $300,000 dollars to spend on campaign advertisements. Do keep in mind the Vermont Grassroots Party had "major party status" in the last election, yet, was not allowed to play. You can't have a campaign in Vermont, you must buy one. All candidates, regardless of their positions, contribute to the dialogue of the election. Keeping them out of the process does nothing for democracy and smacks of elitism of the press. They do nothing for the democracy they should be protecting and have become the great purveyors of opinion rather the than trusting reporters they should be.
MORE READER COMMENTS »» L.A. Leonard, Rutland: Wonder if your readers noticed the commentary in the Rutland Herald entitled "Bush's War is a Sham" printed on of all days, 9-11-02. I took the Herald to task for this commentary of lunacy on a day remembered by so many of us as a day of horror. The commentary was written by David Budbill of Wolcott, a poet and playwright. Having an honorable man in the White House with the fortitude to take on our enemies rather than a playboy like the former president must have been too much for Budbill. My letter has not been printed as yet and wonder if it ever will be. * * * »» Joe Clough, Saint Johnsbury: I have been driving around the state and feel like I am the only one with a Jim Douglas bumper sticker. Bumper stickers are the best form of advertising. The guy behind you will read it! Furthermore, those pesky Democrats can't steal them - like they do the lawn signs! We have an opportunity to win this year! But lets show our support everywhere we go! Get your bumper stickers today! Also, let's start flooding Vermont newspapers with positive "letters to the editor"! Focus on the benefits of Jim Douglas, Brian Dubie & Meub. Negative ranting about "the other guys only sounds like sour grapes - even though it may be true! I believe if we all write positive letters now... We won't have to write negative letters after the election. October is our last month to get the message out! Write a letter today! The NEA has the Democrats doing it... * * * »» Guillaume McDowell, UVM, Burlington: I was struck by an idea this month: Since college students who register to vote outside their home states risk losing their financial aid, I think that, before the Progressives put up their voter registration tables every fall at UVM, concerned citizens should have a table set up with all the appropriate forms to request an absentee ballot for the students' respective home states. We should make a point of the fact that registering to vote in Vermont will endanger your financial aid if you are an out-of-state student. That way, we couldn't be accused of disenfranchising college students, and the Progressive/ Democrat base of support at UVM would be eroded. I am tired of hearing my Burlington neighbors complain about out-of-state students being able to vote in elections. Here is a way they can act on their irritation!
APOLOGY »» Betsy Liley: I was told about and then found that you have posted some false information about me on your Website. I am surprised that you would name me, because the information is untrue but also because I am no longer in the media. I would ask that you: * Remove the information immediately from your Website. * Note that the information was incorrect and apologize in your next posting without repeating the inaccurate information about me. Editors Note: We erred in posting a letter to the editor which mentioned Betsy by name. That violated our own policy and we apologize to both our readers and Betsy.
THEY LIKE US »» Joyce Schmaldienst, Winooski: Thanks for keeping us so well informed. How can anyone who spends so much of their time in Montpelier not know what peccadillo's are occurring?? Keep up the good work. * *
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*** QUOTABLE *** OUR SENATORS AT WORK "President Bush has asked the Senate to pass the bipartisan plan by Senators Phil Gramm and Zell Miller that creates a Homeland Security Department with the management flexibility and freedom needed to get the job of protecting the American people done right. "This bipartisan approach is stalled because some Senate Democrats are putting the special interests of a few federal government employee unions over the security of the American people. Their proposal would strip President Bush of the authority every President since John F. Kennedy has had to suspend collective bargaining agreements because of national security. Their proposal also ties management of the new agency up in needless red tape, regulation and bureaucracy; just when maximum flexibility is needed to get the department set up and operating." --Jack Oliver, Deputy Chairman, RNC
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