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The Dwinell Political Report
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THE DWINELL POLITICAL REPORT May 30, 2003 Vol. 4, No. 21 Subscribe here *** NEWS AND ANALYSIS *** A NEW WIND BLOWS The Ethan Allen plant in Orleans had a dangerous fire begin in its dust collection system, particularly dangerous as the suspended dust could explode or the fire could reach the storage of lacquer finish and explode. Quick action by Ethan Allen and the local fire departments saved the day. Fire Chief Rowell said according to a report in the Chronicle, "The Governor's office called and said anything we needed today was at our disposal. That was incredible. That has never happened before." AND KEEPS BLOWING "Douglas is not one for veto threats or strong-arm tactics, but in his quiet way he has brought his agenda forward during this session, and the Legislature has responded... That qualifies as success." --Times Argus/Rutland Herald, May 25 and Times Argus May 26, 2003 AND BLOWS SOME MORE In our drug-induced stupor following our short and failed debut in the flying circus, we overlooked the uncontested and unanimous election of Jim Barnett from Barre as the new Chair of the Vermont Republican State Committee. Gracious and generous as always, previous Chair Joe Acinapura of Brandon stepped down at the Governor’s request. Douglas is reorganizing the party into a lean mean fighting machine in order to not only reelect himself but to put more Grand Old Party members in the various seats of the House and Senate. Barnett graduated from Spaulding High School and cum laude from American University, worked at the Republican National Committee and the White House before giving up all that on the seeming unlikely hope that he could help Jim Douglas move from State Treasurer to Governor. And the rest is history. Barnett lives in Barre, no longer with mom.
CHINKS IN DREAMWORLD We reported in our April 18, 2003 issue that Mark Sinclair of the Conservation Law Foundation laid out his vision of perfection for Vermont Law School students; be more like his towns of the Mad River Valley with a strong diversified economy. Disregarding the expectation that should Sugarbush, Glen Ellen and Mad River apply today to build ski areas in his hometown, he might render their applications like so much slaughterhouse waste, let’s take a look at his perfect villages. According to the Times Argus report of a conference organized by the Mad River Planning District, nearly 40 percent of the jobs in Waitsfield pay less than $21,000 and fully 68 percent of jobs in Warren pay less than $16,520. Whoops. WHERE WILL THEY LIVE? Houses sold in 2002 for these workers average $187,724 in Waitsfield and $175,185 in Warren. Let’s see. A 90 percent twenty-year mortgage would require payments of about $15,000 a year. The tax rate in Waitsfield in 2002 was $2.53 a hundred so that would be another $4,500 and then the government needs income taxes, unemployment compensation taxes, and social security taxes for another $3,520 even with the new tax tables including the hated Bush tax cut. Let’s see what is left for food and fun? $16,520 less $15,000 less $4,500 less $3,520 is negative ($6,680.) Gee, we get to almost break even and head to the soup kitchen if we live in Waitsfield but in Warren we are in the hole to the tune of $6,680. Oh, my, Mr. Sinclair’s Neighborhood is different than Mr. Rodgers’s. LIKING APARTHIED "Where they are going to be able to afford to live, at least for the time being, is in Barre," said Martin Hahn, executive director of the Central Vermont Community Land Trust. "There is a lot of communing back and forth... So not only are people not living in the community that they are working in, but they are having an additional $2,000 a year in transportation expense." Here’s is a suggestion. Why not bus your workers in from the townships to service the needs of the colonialists and their friends? Not only would the toilets and dishes be clean, when you go out for entertainment you won't have to worry about running into the indigenous population at your pub, restaurant, or nightclub.
THE EVILS OF GROWTH The Hunger Mountain Coop in Montpelier wanted to expand. The popular and growing health food store and café submitted plans to membership. They came, they voted, they approved. Hold on said a few. Growth is evil. Let’s do it again and impose the tyranny of the minority. So another meeting was held. They passed Article 5 requiring a two-thirds vote on all future "major proposals affecting the co-op." They passed Article 6 "to end all use of consultants..." And of course they voted down the previously approved expansion. According to a report in the Times Argus, General Manager Avram Pratt said, "One-third of the members can stop what two-thirds want. They have put themselves in a real box to do anything, debt included. It is a mistake to equate a measure of growth with some of the dangerous and evil things that people have ascribed to the expansion." Their employees have voted 39 to 1 to join the United Electrical, Radio, and Machine Workers Union. Recently employees of the new City Market in Burlington, formerly known as the Onion River Coop, also voted to join the union and their initial contractual demands include "as much as a 58 percent increase" in the starting wage according to the Free Press. Everybody wants a "livable wage" whether the co-op can afford it or not. Bernie-math at work. Better start printing money.
THE NON-BERNIE WORLD "Supporters of big government take a static view of the world, believing that people will simply fork over as much money as the tax collectors demand. In reality, people react to incentives and disincentives. Taxes go up, businesses don't expand, fewer jobs are created, the economy sinks, and the tax take isn't what the planners expected." Steven Greenhut, Orange Country Register, May 25, 2003 BERNIE-RADIO Republicans cringe, Democrats sigh enviously, wise women hide their children. Let’s hear it for the star of our show, Bernie Sanders. Ken Squier, owner of the ever popular WDEV now "news and talk" from 6:00 AM to 2:00 PM, told DPR, "It’s sold out and guess who was the first advertiser, (Republican National Committeeman and Friend of Bush) Skip Vallee. He is pushing the environmental programs of Mobil and Exxon. The phone calls do not stop. We gave the time to Bernie after advice from the FCC, FTC, and FEC. "It is great to have the conservative Laurie Morrow and now the liberal Bernie Show. We will cross-pollinate them, promoting each on the other. "Though we are giving the time to Bernie and selling the advertising, Anthony Pollina must pay up for his time and he does. Laurie’s show is paid for by True North llc. However, much to Bernie’s surprise he was preempted by the Boston Red Sox!"
TERRIBLE TED COMES TO TOWN The crowd loved him even before he said his first "uhh." Not known as a dynamic speaker, Ted Turner said to applause that he loves lawyers and especially Vermont Law School because "VLS loves the environment." The "crises" in the 21st century is over-fishing of oceans, global warming and overpopulation. These problems require collectivist solutions as the only hope for mankind. By not embracing world government, we are committing collective suicide. He said that he opposed President Bush and the United States forcing its will on other nations. A man of his word however, Turner, aka the Mouth of the South, has put his billions where his mouth is in giving generously to the United Nations.
AMERICA’S BEST HIGH SCHOOLS For the current Newsweek cover story, Jay Mathews of the Washington Post built a list of America’s best high schools. He ranks them by a ratio determined by the number of Advanced Placement or International Baccalaureate tests taken by all students at a school in 2002 divided by the number of graduating seniors. The highest ranked school was International Academy in Bloomfield, MI with a score of 6,323. Go to Newsweek.com where all schools which earned 1,000 points or higher are listed. No Vermont school made the list. DPR contacted Mr. Mathews who said "The highest ranking Vermont high school was Champlain Valley Union with 116 Advanced Placement tests compared to 274 graduates or a score of 423. It is possible I missed some, but none have contacted me to tell me so. "It is my suspicion the Vermont schools don't like AP that much, and only let their best students take the tests. There is also a feeling on the part of many small rural schools that AP is not necessary for admission. I think this is very shortsighted, because it sets the kid up for a fall, and reduces his/her choices. "All the most successful AP educators have told me that taking at least one AP in high school is essential to both excite the kid at the possibilities of learning at this level (which is often more interesting than the average high school course) and to prepare her/him for those two foot high college reading lists." Mr. Mathews asked DPR why Vermont schools would not make the top 1000. We mentioned that Vermont had no competition via school choice, vouchers, or charter schools. Mr. Mathews responded, "Thank you, that helps me."
THE CAUSE Dateline Greensboro: According to James Cook, 1997 school taxes were $746,248. Then came Act 60. In 2002 school taxes rose to $3,051,927. Dateline Montpelier: According to David Kelly, "We have seen a 51 percent increase in full time instructional staff while at the same time seeing a 20 percent decrease in students." THE EFFECT Forty-two school budgets went down to defeat on town meeting day. Though the media stopped counting at forty-two, it must be approaching fifty-five by now. Here is this week’s devastation: Roxbury overturned is town meeting day approval by 57-43 percent; Colchester rejected its budget 53-47 percent; the Twinfield School in Marshfield voted down its budget again, 59-41 percent. Property rich with box stores, Williston nevertheless overturned its budget 54-46 percent. They had a re-vote as the superintendent overseeing Williston schools concluded that "the district violated federal law this spring by releasing parent information that was supposed to stay private" to advocates for the school budget passage. "A violation of FERPA occurred when mailing labels were printed." THE SOLUTION The legislators listened and passed Act 60 reform. Or did they? For six years Representative Gaye Symington, D-Jericho, stood opposed to Act 60 reform. Now she was in favor of it. Representative Mark Young, R-Orwell, said, "We have put a target on the backs of the economic engine of this state" according to the Free Press as he stood in opposition to Act 60 reform. Ways and Means member Representative Bud Otterman, R-Topsham, said according to the Free Press, "We should have stuck to our guns. If there had to be a compromise, it should have been with the Senate, not here with yourselves." Fellow member Representative Stephen Webster, R-Randolph, said, "I am uncomfortable raising the sales tax which unlike property taxes is not deductible. I am also uncomfortable treating businesses and secondhome owners as a less favorable group of taxpayers." And of course neither sends children to school, the expense being almost 50 percent more for this "less favorable groups of taxpayers." Though Governor Jim Douglas insisted from the beginning that any Act 60 fix program must contain cost containment, he like many others underestimated the power of the educational establishment, probably the most successful advocacy group in Vermont. In the end, Douglas said, "There is a disincentive for excess spending which will increase the local tax rate. We have seen a tremendous increase in cost with a decrease in students. We will compile a list of mandates and see what we in the executive can do to moderate or eliminate those. "I don't believe that this is the last word. This bill is a step. The Common Level of Appraisal is a problem but the increased revenues do go into the pot and are redistributed. The key here is ending the divisiveness about Act 60 and this bill should do that."
DEAR WALDO, WE APOLOGIZE A source in New Hampshire suggests that we may have written off Howard Dean prematurely. Usually when the campaign manager becomes the story as did Joe Trippi or when a campaign is taken over by the media men who know only how to spend money, the end is near. But our source sees it differently. "Dean is doing very, very well here. He seems to have struck a chord with activists who see him as someone speaking his mind and unashamed about his liberal beliefs. Liberal red-meat (or rather veggie burgers) works well in a primary here. "Hanover and Durham Democrats seem to have more control over the party than more moderate Manchester types lately. The Franklin Pierce College poll suggests strong Dean support. Kerry has little room to grow and Dean has tremendous growth potential. "That having been said it is really early. Dean has succeeded in moving into the top tier and establishing himself as a legitimate choice - important as a wider audience starts to decide among candidates that are seen as 'contenders.'" THE REAL WORLD A recent New York Times/CBS poll, nearly two-thirds of Democrats polled could not name a single Democrat running for president. "Fifty-three percent of Americans think that the Republicans have a clear plan for the country while only forty percent think that the Democrats do," according to the National Journal.
*** MEDIA NOTES *** LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION What are the three most important things to remember about real estate investment? Location, location, location. So too with newspaper placement. Who is laying out the Burlington Free Press? Thursday’s issue was a classic: The only national story on page one was a revisionist history from the AP arguing that, "The dramatics surrounding the [Pfc. Jessica] Lynch rescue were unnecessary...(the rescuers) just wanted to prove they were heroes." The thespians being referred to, of course, are the troops who staged that daring rescue in Nasiriyah, behind enemy lines, under enemy fire, with an uncertain outcome. Page two describes Amnesty International’s critical views of the war on terrorism. Not until page four do we learn that President Bush signed a $350 billion tax cut. The breaking news about those mobile biological weapons labs in Iraq was reserved for page twelve. Many at the Free Press are striving to present fair and balanced views. It’s just that we cannot easily find that. It is a shame to see their efforts undone by some Sandinista layout artist.
*** THE ROAR OF THE CROWD: EMAIL *** NOVEMBER 2004 CAN'T COME SOON ENOUGH »» Rob Towle, Rutland City: First of all, welcome back Mr. Dwinell. I was having withdrawal attacks. Isn't it strange that at a time when Vermont needs Security and Jobs, our three Heirs-du-State (Leahy, Jeffords, and Sanders) found time to vote against an increase in child credits, tax credits to Small Businesses and in Sanders case, to vote against child abduction legislation. They found time to filibuster and block the appointments of Judge Estrada and Judge Owens and one of them does his own talk-show instead of showing up in their assigned seat on the Committee trying to defeat Terrorism. I'm equally confident that these three would find the time to help us fix Act 60 with their favorite tax increase to make sure our economy gets dump-started. It is time for Common Sense to move back into Vermont Government as well as the seats of our national three. Now is the time to help challengers form the campaigns. We need moderates, conservatives and cross-over Democrats to unite and return sanity to our way of life! November 2004 is coming soon, and Vermont needs to send some professionals to Washington instead of ProTestionals!
CAMPAIGN PROMISES »» Karen Kerin, South Royalton: My ears must have deceived me. I could have sworn that virtually every candidate of every political persuasion promised to reduce taxes and regulations. Senate majority leader Peter Welch claimed that as the principal author of Act 60, he knew how to fix it. Who knew his fix would mean higher state-wide school taxes in most towns and further erosion of the competitive position of businesses in Eastern Vermont with the sales and use tax expansion and increase? Wait until people see their next property tax bill. The regulatory system appears to be a real fiasco. Part-time legislators are looking at something so massive that like the blind men describing an elephant, each understands only a part of the real size of the beast. It seems unlikely anything meaningful will emerge this session. But there is hope. I have argued for years that like our statutes, the rules, regulations, policies, procedures and formats for licenses and permits should be published in a single set of books. They are that extensive, given all the agencies, boards, commissions and other quasi government entities entitled to utilize the Administrative Rules Procedure Act. Having spoken on this issue for a long time, I suggested to Governor Douglas at the Windsor County Dinner Friday, that he should issue an executive order to all of the administrative entities requiring them to produce electronically all of their rules, regulations, policies, procedures and formats for permits and licenses. Properly indexed and cross-indexed, this would allow our legislators to see the beast and would enhance the understanding of the new heads of these administrative entities. The governor agreed and again reminded me that he had done that many years ago before he was governor. He also said it would be a good summer project. If it happens, perhaps next year we will finally see the mess cleaned up and the hurdles reduced for creating jobs. At the very least, all of us would be able to see what the hurdles are before spending our money on the folly of starting a business in Vermont with the current regulatory scheme.
ACT 60 DEFORM »» Gerard A. Cormier, Plainfield: The Senate Act 60 Reform Plan does nothing but relieve the "gold towns" by robbing the remaining 90% poor and middle class of Vermont! There is zero tax relief for citizens of all the other towns. Instead, you are asking us to increase our tax liability on top of our excessive school taxes with a 6% tax on our phone bills (already taxed at 4.83% for Act 60), and to pay another 1% sales tax on all consumer goods and a few more added. There are no cost controls mandated of the schools, but we have a dog and pony show on trying to convince us that communities will become more aware of above state block spending amounts and limit budget increases voluntarily. Yeah, that's precisely why Marshfield pays twice the state rate! Some control! The granolas living in rented spaces vote yes to everything they don't have to pay for directly, instead of sharing the load through the state taxing their incomes. Representative Marron of Stowe and Senator Condos of South Burlington are the stars, having fooled the entire senate with their smoke and mirrors presentation. It is now up to the House to protect the rest of Vermont and their electorate. I don't care if it takes another month, none of the representatives or senators who vote for the Senate plan will ever get re-elected. Please stand up to this chicanery. * * * »» Bob Jonas, Jr., Dorset: Some reform. Eliminate the shark pool but substitute in its place, among other tax increases, two different real estate tax rates levied for a single purpose, one for residents and one for non-resident owners of second homes. Isn't that a blatant violation of the US Constitution, Amendment XIV, Section 1 which requires equal protection under the law (for all property owners within the state)?
ACT 250 DEFORM »» Laura Brueckner, Waterbury Center: What don't Vermont's elected professional politicians get about "Its the permit process stupid!"? Why can't Vermont have measurable standards thereby rendering folks like the out-of-state law firms "null and void"? With measurable standards, a judge could quickly and easily check that criteria is met and soon those that just want to stop construction of any kind wouldn't be terrorizing Vermont businesses and landowners. Another FAILED Douglas/Dubie promise. While former Governor Dean zipped those old Executive Orders out and things got done, Douglas/Dubie fail to lead the legislators to the conclusion that this is a priority of the utmost importance [and fix it] or it will be fixed by Executive Order. Vermont continues to hemorrhage jobs but we are told revenues are up? Who buys this garbage besides the Vermont press!? Hey folks, things don't add up and I'm a long ways from being an accountant.
THE EDUCATION PROFESSIONAL'S NEW CLOTHES »» Allan R. Wylie, South Strafford: Regarding Laurie LaPlant's assertion that teaching is a profession [Quotable - Show Me the Money], we should observe that The American Heritage Dictionary defines profession as "An occupation requiring considerable training and specialized study." The success of home schooling belies the fable that teaching is a profession. It is also noteworthy that this country and its unique form of government were established by men who were taught by teachers who were uncertified and did not have the "benefit" of education-in-education enjoyed by today's teachers. Indeed, this country rose to preeminence in the world being taught by uncertified teachers who knew their stuff, not their educational pabulum. In fact, regarding Tom Halnon's questions about the qualifications of our teachers, it is a well kept secret that teachers score in the bottom 25% of SATs and GREs. The unnerving thought regarding our teachers is that it is quite likely that parents send their children off to college having been taught by teachers who scored 50 points lower than their children when they went to college! Further, in the eight specialties used to group GRE test takers, aspiring educators score dead last. Time was when teachers represented the most well educated in our society. Those days are gone. Studies now show that high school teachers are generally less well prepared in subjects they are going to teach than ordinary college graduates. Mr. Dorta and the NEA have done a good job of selling the idea that teachers are professionals and are highly qualified. If that were the case, they would not fear competition and would, in fact, welcome it as a built-in mechanism to spur improvement in the scandalous results in academic achievement displayed by our educational establishment when competing with the rest of the world--again, mostly dead last!
THEY LIKE US »» John LaBarge: Sorry about your crash landing after a short flight. So you are not a Wright Brother or Peter Pan, we still care about you. Glad to hear you are recovering and I wish you a speedy recovery. »» Robert Lefebvre, Bradford: Sorry about your mishap. I see that we are still receiving your newsletter, so apparently it did not affect your thinking, thank God. Hopefully, you do not try the same stunt again. we need you to help us bring common sense around. My prayers are with you. »» Meg Barnes, Bridport: You have been in my prayers. I also know from experience that although you are now writing the DPR again, you are probably not feeling at your peak! »» Robert Skinner, South Hero: Glad to read that you ARE BACK!! Hope the pain is not to bad. Mend my friend - MEND !!! »» Jen Hersey, Barton: I hope you are mending quickly. You must have taken quite a fall off that horse. Missed the report last week [5/16], but I guess I understand (Hee, hee). *** COMMENTARY *** TAXPAYERS WIN A BATTLE, LOSING THE WAR
Our representatives were charged with crafting property tax reform but were only able to deliver temporary property tax relief. The House made a bold effort to shift paying for schools from the property tax to the income tax. The Governor killed that effort, noting that the required income tax increase would be bad for the economy. The House caved and settled: property tax relief without reform and cost control. To reduce reliance on the property tax, the House increased the telecommunications tax to 6 percent, increased the property transfer tax, and raised the sales tax from 5 to 6 percent starting in October. Much of the new money will go toward increasing the block grant from about $5,560 to $5,800 next year and $6,800 the year after. For this, homeowners will pay $1.10 per $100 of property value and those on "income sensitivity" will pay just 2 percent of their income--a significant savings for both groups of homeowners. As for cost controls, there was no discussion of full school choice, charter schools, vouchers, merit pay, or allowing community volunteers to teach. Creative ideas like allowing communities to ratify teacher contracts were quickly killed. The only idea that went anywhere was that of increasing the financial burden for above-block spending. We will see some temporary property tax relief thanks to an infusion of $50 million from other taxes, but we'll also pay more in sales tax--which unlike property tax is not deductible on our Federal return. Also, the property tax will now have "excess capacity" (it will be lower than we've grown used to), and this is not offset by cost controls. Within two or three years, many predict that property tax rates will return to today’s levels. The worst features of Act 60 remain, including the Common Level of Appraisal (CLA) mechanism that automatically jumps our property taxes every year as property values rise. This is a huge problem yet our legislators did nothing about it despite a superior court ruling comparing the underlying formula to "rolling dice." Economic gerrymandering is preserved: "income-sensitivity" continues to render a slight plurality of voters immune from tax increases due to the CLA and partially protected from the cost of increased school spending. These are the voters who are reminded of their special protected status when school budgets are pending and led to understand that higher school spending will not affect them as much. The payments are paid out of the Education Fund and the cost is soaring as home values rise faster than incomes. The only big change to Act 60 is splitting the Grand List. Starting in 2005, non-resident and business properties will be taxed at a flat rate of $1.59 per $100. This rate will be independent of local spending decisions. This is dangerous ground for obvious reasons. But if there is a silver lining, it is that the split Grand List will magnify the inequities of the statewide residential property tax. This in turn may make it easier to explain why we should equalize property taxes across towns based on resident income. See the FAIR plan & discussion: http://www.act60.org/alternative_plan.htm. * *
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*** QUOTABLE *** BACK-SCRATCHING "Apart from their utter failure to educate the vast majority of their students in large urban school systems, the biggest outrage perpetrated by the National Education Association and the American Federation of Teachers is to charge their members exorbitant union dues, spend relatively nothing negotiating labor contracts and then pour tens of millions of surplus dues dollars into election campaigns of Democratic Party members. Once elected, Democrats return the favor by pouring billions of taxpayer dollars down the public school rathole...." --Washington Times (quoted in the Federalist Chronicle, 5/28/03) Full editorial available here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/694240/posts
HYPOCRITE "I find it simply baffling that a senator would vote against even voting on a judicial nomination." --Senator Tom Daschle, October 5, 1999
NEW AMERICAN FIRST "After Iraq, the Left has a new agenda: contain America first." --Jonathan Rauch, National Journal, May 24, 2003
SINCERE CONDOLENCES "(T)he Democrats' glass is not half full, but half empty, and it appears to be leaking." -- New York Times reporter Adam Clymer, May 25, 2003
WISDOM "We no longer live in a world where only the actual firing of weapons represents a sufficient challenge to a nation's security..." --President John F. Kennedy, 1962. * *
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