HE HAD THE WHOLE WORLD

What a difference a month makes. Many a slip between cup and lip we wrote in our last report on Dean’s presidential chances. Hope he was wearing a bib. He slobbered all over himself, his campaign too. From twenty to thirty points up on Kerry weeks ago, he thinks that he is now the comeback kid while finishing double digits behind him. Comeback from insanity perhaps.

The best of this week of course was Judy Dean. Wow! Wished she had graced us over the last twenty years. Smart, articulate, wise, patient, listening, thinking, and speaking. No wonder Dean followed her to Vermont those many years ago. Too bad she did not decide politics was her future and he medicine. 

NON VERBAL COMMUNICATION

We each give off between forty and fifty non-verbal clues to our listener, many even before we speak. Did Howard or his staff ever take the time to watch him with the sound turned off? His face grimaces, his brow narrows, he jabs with his finger, he paces, and he scowls. None of this is pleasing, confidence building or effective communication skills. Then turn on the sound and close your eyes and listen to the music of his voice. Again not easy listening. He had a scream.

For over a decade political consultants have placed knob turning gadgets in audiences’ hands to test messages. First the listeners dial in his/her demographics so the researchers can pick up what kinds of communications appeal to what demographic groups. Then as a person speaks, the listener moves his/her dial from one to ten as they pick up the message and its delivery. If the Dean campaign availed itself of this technology, Dean was a poor student. 

I'M A LITTLE TEAPOT SHORT AND STOUT

Who huffed and puffed and blew his candle out? Wow. Iowa has some of the most decent people in the world. "You sit down!! You have had your say! I will have my say!" Right, but it was about his last. He shouted at a senior citizen who suggested that his remarks might be more "neighborly." He huffed and puffed so hard that David Letterman parodied that he blew his own head clear off while shouting red faced in his graceless concession and congratulation speech. Iowa just is not the place to be rude. 

TAKE THAT CLINTONISTAS

First he attacked all his running mates. Then he attacked all Washington Democrats. Then he went after those who did not fully appreciate the value of the rednecks in the South. Then there was more. The Democrat Leadership Council became the "Republican" wing of the Democrat Party. The DLC is part of the Clinton machine. On he went, forgetting to look in his rear view mirror. He and Al Gore were going to take over the Democrat Party. "I want to take back (he likes that phrase now) the Democrat Party so we stand for something again," he said. According to Time Magazine, "When Hillary Clinton was asked if the party needed to be remade, she responded with one word: 'No.'"

He might have noticed that the Clinton’s had already taken over the Party and its chair three years ago, installed their folks, changed the nomination schedule, all to prepare the way for Hillary. There are literally thousands of Clintonistas who are drooling to retake the levers of power in the Washington establishment Dean chastises. He put them all, including the Clintons, on his enemies list. The Clintonistas employed a willing dupe, General Weasley Clark, to rough up Dean in New Hampshire. Dean went beyond their expectations, self-immolating in Iowa. 

KAKEWALK’S BEEN CANCELLED

The oldest winter carnival in the country, Kakewalk at UVM, was cancelled in the late sixties. Dean’s cakewalk was emphatically cancelled last Monday in Iowa. What happened? As we wrote two years ago, the national press is not the Vermont press; they will not accept Dean's "lies, exaggerations and inappropriate superlatives." Fellow traveler Senator Susan Bartlett, D-Lamoille, was quoted as saying, "It would be helpful with all these amazing attacks to tell the truth about his record." Maybe it is the truth that's finally coming out.

We listened to Dean. He is one of our own. We want to believe. We want to wish him well. And then, boom; he lies. He explained how he did health care in Vermont, Dr. Dinosaur and all, and then he said, "We expanded private insurance." Huh? With community rating and mandates driving private insurance away, we dropped from about 20 insurers to fewer than five.

Columnists wrote, "God help Dean in the South," "Gore nod may have been kiss of death," "Anger management 101," "Bike Path Left," and so forth. Chris Matthews surprisingly opined on Hardball, "Everyone wants to write Dean’s obituary." Dean forgot to take the Dale Carnegie course, How to Win Friends and Influence People. The press builds you up only to have something to shoot at. And they did not miss. 

DEAN VS. THE TRUTH, EPISODE 25? 26? 100?

"He said that he was leaving Iowa for 20 of the last 48 hours before the caucuses because 'when the former President of the United States asks you to go to church with him on the Sunday before caucuses, I think you probably take that up.' --Howard Dean, New York Times, January 18, 2004

"'I didn't invite him... He called me on the phone and said he'd like to come worship with me.'" --Former President Jimmy Carter, New York Times, January 18, 2004 

Source: http://www.donkeysmouth.com/current.asp 

THE PRAIRIE HOME COMPANION

"First he lost Iowa, and then he lost his marbles. Now off to the horse race in New Hampshire where there is now abundant manure as would be expected in a horse race." 

SAY WHAT?

Chris Mathews said when asked if Dean would benefit from being a neighbor to New Hampshire, "Vermont is part of upstate New York in the minds of the New Hampshire voter." 

LOSE THE SWEATER

Carreer.com gave some advice on a local radio station. "The biggest mistake people make going into an interview is to dress too casually. Even if the atmosphere is casual, people want to know that you are serious about the interview process." Are you listening Waldo? 

THE MESSAGE IS THE MESSAGE

Dean has said through the years that he is a believer in "message." Usually he is disciplined in staying on message. IN Iowa he not only went off message, he went back on his word to stay positive. Worse of all, it was not necessary. Dick Gephardt was never going anywhere. He was yesterday news, winning in Iowa not recently, in 1988. His generation’s Harold Stassen. But he got under Dean’s skin so Dean fired back and shot himself in the foot. The Dean campaign extolled its organization but like paper covers rock, message trumps organization. 

LET’S GO SURFING NOW

Dean had the most money. So much money and hubris that he decided to pass up $20,000,000 or so in Federal matching funds after committing to abide by the campaign finance rules. Of course he had done the same thing here in Vermont in 2000. He had the nomination wrapped up; folks were picking out their West Wing offices. He did not need that money. Bet he misses it now.

He spent the most money and time in Iowa, using every possible campaign weapon. Maybe he did not wear well. Maybe familiarity breeds contempt as we wrote years back. He fell off message. He said he would stay positive. He did not. He whined. He shouted. He put folks down He became exhausted. He can catch the wave, we wrote, but could he ride the wave? Guess not. At least he did not loose his arm. 

WHERE THE MONEY IS

The money is in Joe Trippi’s pocket. Look at the upcoming FEC reports on the Dean campaign. Trippi has become a millionaire in nine months on the job of the frugal Dean. If he had stayed with his home team, Steve Smith consulting, this would never have happened. Waste not, want not, use it up, wear it out. 

TO KNOW HIM IS NOT TO LOVE HIM

General Clark became the flavor of the month in New Hampshire. Of course no other flavors were on sale -- surprisingly considering his vaunted resume to which he constantly refers. Remember the usual resume phrase at the end: "references available upon request?" Here is what his recent boss, General Hugh Shelton Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said as he gave his reference of Clark: "I can tell you the reason he came out of Europe early (fired in other words) had to do with integrity and character issues. Wes will not get my vote."

To prove Shelton’s point, in 2001 Clark attended a GOP fundraiser and extolled the virtues of Bush, Rumsfeld, Powell and Cheney. Then two years later he is excoriating them. How is that for integrity? 

THE JIMMY AND BERNIE SHOW

Holy Mary Mother of God, pray for our sinners. He says that he is for jobs, that Vermont is open for business. Then Jim Douglas raises the minimum wage, without even being asked, about forty percent above the national minimum wage without allowing for training or teenage wage. Now he is increasing the tax on capital gains. Scratch any Vermonter and there is a socialist in there somewhere. 

DAS CAPITAL

In theory we live in a capitalistic society. Government of course wants its greedy hooks in everywhere and have passed about every tax imaginable and created every fee under the sun. The capital gains tax can be attacked by asking why man's sweat should be taxed higher than man’s capital?

Here are some reasons. Without a favorable capital gains tax, the sale of a long term hold of property could push a taxpayer into a much higher bracket for the year of sale increasing the tax burden. If the appreciation had been taxed in each year, that probably would not have occurred. Second, our dear government cannot say no to increased spending which causes inflation. Therefore your asset’s increased price is in large measure inflation. Does not seem right to tax inflation at a high rate. Third, in a capitalistic society, you need capital to fuel growth and increase productivity and thus increase folk’s income. Low rates encourage investment. Lastly, recall the admonition, neither a borrower nor lender be? That would make you a saver. We have slipped too far into a consumer society. Savings would be good, capital gains incentivizes folks to save. 

WHAT DID YOU SAY?

The State Education Board twice in two weeks voted to support school choice. Just months ago, many of the same board were not just opposed, but appalled at school choice. Did the debate get to them? Or maybe the constant editorials in the Free Press? Have folks seen the light that VT-NEA is not really about the children but about the teachers? For whatever reason, hurrah. As the home equity ad says, "When banks compete, you win!" 

AND THE WINNER IS...

The state generated a $20,000,000 surplus. We paid in more than they needed. So is it returned? No. Well then maybe a jump ball to see who gets it? No. The budget adjustment committee, Republicans saying that they better spend it before the Democrats do, spent it all. The stressed taxpayer hits their drug of choice, Finnigans’s, Zoloft, or the gym and wonders why he/she bothers to even vote Republican. 

ALL THE PEOPLE, ALL THE TIME

"My plan represents the people, it is the people's plan, and it speaks to what I have heard in my visits around the state." The Governor said a recent press conference. When asked if his plan also represented the "tax-hiking, government-expanding, latte-drinking, shushi-eating, Volvo-driving, Birkenstock-wearing crowd," Douglas said, "There is something for everyone in there." 

THE GREEN AND GOLD BECOME THE CORNHUSKERS

Governor Jim Douglas and President Dan Fogel are teaming up to bring us a new 10,000 person sports arena bringing in "expected amenities" to enhance UVM’s cash flow, out-of-state students. Got to give those kids a reason to come to UVM. Guess that would not be the academic challenges.

Along with the arena comes "recruiting the type of student athletes that we need to keep up with the Jones." Clearly the "Jones" are not in the neighborhood. Norwich University seems to pack them into Kreitzberg Arena and produce national champions and have fun and amenities in the process. Middlebury sweeps to national lacrosse championships. And UVM, about winless in hockey in 2003, moves up into a bigger and better league. Why?

What happens to the Vermont kid in the process, the kid who got up at 3:30 AM for years for ice time, who went off the hockey camp year after year, and who became captain of his/her hockey team. Need not apply at their state university team. Now recruiting nationally and internationally to keep up with the Jones, our kids can play intramural and get to watch the pros. 

TANGO ANYONE?

The Emergency Board of Vermont convenes by statute every six months to hear from the two state economists, Tom Kavet of Williamstown and Jeff Carr of Williston. Their report was a bit scary. "The IMF has a model for the Third World designed to flag countries which are headed for a crisis. Actually, the Third World is improving. It is the United States which now sets off the alarm bells. As Herb Stein, President Nixon’s chair of the Council of Economic Advisors used to say, ‘Things that cannot go on forever, don't.' The budget risk is in debt spending and record trade deficits just plunging off the page. There is also high consumer debt. When interest rates rise, this debt will hurt. This is a real problem.

"The imbalance in our trade account cannot go on forever. This will perpetuate the crisis. International investors will loose confidence in the dollar and pull out further creating a crisis. Oil will more and more be pegged to the Euro. Russia has already done so and the Arab states are effectively doing that by driving up the price. Neither American fiscal or monetary efforts can help. There is no question that interest will rise, inflation too. The federal budget is on an unsustainable path. And this assumes that all is well in the world. If Iraq melts down, if there is another domestic terrorist incident, things will be even worse.

"In Vermont, our unemployment rate is the 5th lowest in the country, the lowest of any New England or Northeastern state, our private payroll increasing at a 0.4 percent rate. In the twelve months ending in November, construction was 40 percent above 2000 levels. However Vermont’s factory jobs are still plummeting. Only three states had increases in the last year, Vermont was 23rd with a 2.8 percent decrease. Inventories are up, profits are up which usually equals job growth. Yet the job growth is difficult because of changing business structures, out-sourcing goods and services in Asia." 

THE GRAND COALITION

Recall the grand Democrat coalition? Labor unions, the South, Northeast liberals, etc. Lately, their coalition includes unions, enviros, Blacks, gays, pro-choice folks, teachers, trial lawyers, AARP, and Hollywood. Karl Rove and the Republicans have taken a different tack. Because the technology allows, they have strung together a patchwork of tiny constituencies to create the Red State coalition. In the old days the smallest political body was a precinct. Now, not only can they divide precincts by using computer voting habits and demographics, they can divide for political purposes buildings, floors, apartments, and families.

This sophistication relies not on organization or group or union membership. It only takes a computer loaded with data and a willingness to use it to reward your friends and punish your enemies.

Take for example the geography of unemployment. In Red States, those Bush won, unemployment is 5 percent. In Blue States, those Gore won, unemployment is 5.9 percent. Power does corrupt. Not that the Democrats would not do the same thing. 

THE GREATEST CLUB IN THE WORLD

The Senate used to be a place of cordiality, a place of honored debate. No more. Take for example the cloture vote to stop a filibuster. In the 1950’s according to the National Journal, cloture was used only 0.6 times per congress, almost never. In the 1960’s its use had jumped to 4.2 times per Congress. By the 70’s it jumped again to 19.4 times, the 80’s to 26.8 times, the 90’s to 50 times, and in the new millennium 58 times per Congress.

Similarly, the body is more polarized by ideology. On respective liberal and conservative scales with 1 being not very conservative and 5 being extremely so, the Senate in 1970 had Republicans ranked as 1.5 on the conservative scale and Democrats 2.5 on the liberal scale. By 2000, Republicans had moved to 4.2 on the conservative scale and Democrats to 4.0 on the liberal scale. Whereas in 1970, there were only 4 degrees of separation, today there are 8.2 degrees of separation.

Unfortunately, our delegation has not helped. Leahy is one of the most partisan senators; Jeffords gave up trying to keep the Republican moderate, jumping ship to join Leahy in the partisan liberal brigade. None of this augers well for the Republic, or for the citizen. According to Senator Zell Miller in his book, A National Party No More, "American politics has been hijacked by shrill and well-financed special interest groups where it is held hostage near the edges of the groups' ideological extremes. Most Americans are in the middle mixing both liberal and conservative ideologies to create practical political beliefs." The hijack was driven by the rise of the political consultant, the creation of the perpetual campaign, and modern technology. Too bad. In a sense this was what both the McCain and the Dean campaigns were about. They failed for similar reasons. The special interests groups could not tolerate their success. 

THOSE WERE THE DAYS

Our shortest presidential term not created by assassination or natural death was that of "hapless" Jerry Ford. "Hapless" however had something going for him. David Gergen, communications guru to four presidents, teacher, talking head, part-time Brookfield resident, and now writer, tells us in his book Eyewitness to Power, "In my experience over the past thirty years, every White House save one, President Ford’s, has on occasion willfully mislead or lied to the press." 

IT WAS NO THRILLER

CBS amazingly thought that a Michael Jackson interview was so valuable that it went out and bought it or traded for it or both. Put them all on waivers, neither are worthy of the big leagues.  

MEET-UP ANYONE?

Norman Runnion, political reporter for the Herald of Randolph and former editor of the Brattleboro Reformer, was featured in a recent New Yorker piece on Dean. Runnion became a "meet-up" guy for Dean in Brookfield. Ah, the non-partisan, unbiased Vermont press corps. 

SAY IT AIN’T SO

WCAX, often our station of record, went overboard last week gaping the national media by calling Dean’s world famous concession speech a "tirade." Not so good for our home town folks. Foolish, yes, inappropriate, yes, but it was what it was; a pep rally talk to the loyal troops. That the whole world was watching was forgotten by Dean. We have seen a Dean tirade. This was no tirade. 

HEAT’S OFF AT VERMONT PUBLIC TELEVISION?

Sam Hemingway blew on his hands, then rubbed his hands over and over on Vermont This Week. This might lead one to believe that Vermont Public Television did not do so well in its recent pledge drive. Is the heat still on? 

OOOPS, WE DID IT AGAIN

The lefty writers have not yet given much credit to either Governor Douglas or Lieutenant Governor Dubie for their 2002 campaigns. You almost never read anything about Dubie’s victory without an accompaniment of whines about a three-man race with Polina and Shumlin splitting the awesome liberal vote. The Times Argus recently went one step further attributing Douglas’s win also to Anthony Polina splitting the incredible and all pervasive liberal vote. The fact that polls showed 90 percent of third party Con Hogan’s vote would have gone to Douglas giving him a landslide over liberal Racine never reaches a southpaw’s keyboard. 

THE WAY WE WERE

He was described as "fiscally responsible with great social and environmental concern, really strong environmental concerns, concerned about nature in all senses of the word." Might that be our soon to be departed L.L. Dean? Maybe, but State Archivist Gregory Sanford was describing Governor Deane Davis.

Self styled historian and recent émigré from just below the Mason-Dixon line, Darren Allen of Vermont Press Bureau, recently described Davis as a "conservative Republican." But of course, most Vermont media have a hard time writing Republican without prefacing it with "conservative." Maybe he meant conservationist. Davis not only ushered in Act 250 to give "Vermonters some level of control over how Vermont was developed," he drove the passage of the Air Quality Act or the Water Quality Act. He called for the passage of a sales tax. He created the popular volunteer program Green Up Day. Just your garden variety conservative. 

DEMOCRATIC COMPUTERS INFILTRATED!

So screamed Thursday's top headline in the Burlington Free Press. The subject was a series of judiciary staff memos from Senator Patrick Leahy's brief tenure as chair of the senate judiciary committee. A year ago material presumed to be drawn from the memos turned up in a column by Robert Novak, and last fall was seen "in the pages of the conservative-leaning newspapers," including DPR.

Late last year an investigation determined that a computer technician hired by Leahy had set things up so that ALL Judiciary staffers had access to a computer server where the memos were stored. Someone had a peek.

Who knows why the Free Press is headlining the story two months later, but Democrats surely must be pleased that the focus of the story is on unauthorized access and not the content of the memos. According to the Wall Street Journal...

"The memos...show the senators took their marching orders from People for the American Way, the Alliance for Justice, NARAL Pro-Choice America and the NAACP. No surprise here, as anyone who has been following the course of Mr. Bush's stalled nominees knows full well. But the extent of the groups' micromanagement [by special interests] is eye-popping and exposes the opposition to Mr. Bush's judicial picks for what it really is: political maneuvering, not principled differences of opinion.

Wall Street Journal Story: http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110004370

Robert Novak column: http://www.townhall.com/columnists/robertnovak/rn20030227.shtml

Read the memos: http://fairjudiciary.campsol.com/cfj_contents/press/collusionmemos.shtml 

NOTE TO DAN RATHER

"If the media elites maintain their arrogance and don't change, they'll cease to be serious players in the national conversation and become the journalistic equivalent of the leisure suit -- harmless enough but hopelessly out of date." --Bernard Goldberg, author of "Bias" and "Arrogance," quoted in The Federalist 

INSIDER TRADING!

»» John McClaughry, Kirby: Eighteen months ago I sold my autographed (not to me, thank you - it was given to me as a practical joke) copy of Jeffords' Declaration of Independence on E-Bay. Minimum bid: $5. Number of Bids: one, for $5. Sold: to Ralph Jeffords of Virginia. Looks like I got out when the market was hot. 

THEY LIKE US

»» John Goodrich, Lyndonville: I continue to appreciate the rational analysis and incisive commentary you provide on our Vermont political landscape. Thanks for publishing your little gem. 

WHICH IS IT? 

"In my family, when we were little, television was somewhat of a bonding experience. When we were young my father was very busy, he came home late every night and he didn't see us much. But when he came home, we'd watch The Three Stooges together, Abbott and Costello. We thought that was just terrific stuff. We'd just sit there and watch it together." --Howard Dean, interview with People magazine, Jan. 8, 2004

"In general, I'm not a fan of TV. I grew up without a TV." --Howard Dean, same interview

http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110004560 

THANK HEAVEN 

"(Howard) Dean is God's reward to Mr. Bush for doing the right thing in the war on terror." -- Columnist Dick Morris 

"EEEAAARRGHRRR!!!" 

.... Good news for Howard Dean's wife; it looks like she's going to get the privacy she wanted. .... Did you see that speech Howard Dean gave last night? I heard that the cows in Iowa are now afraid of getting mad dean disease. I'm not an expert in politics, but I think it's a bad sign when your speech ends with your aides shooting you with a tranquilizer gun. .... I tell you something fascinating -- John Kerry's victory over Howard Dean has completely changed the presidential race around. Now instead of the rich white guy from Yale who lives in the White House facing off against the rich white guy from Yale who lives in Vermont, he may have to face the rich white guy from Yale who lives in Massachusetts. It's a whole different game. --Jay Leno, quoted in the Federalist 

ATONEMENT? 

"Dean himself was subdued [during the NH debate], trying his best not to scare potential voters. But while Dean may be too hot for most voters' tastes, a mellow Dean is like a mild jalapeño pepper--a thing whose very existence is utterly pointless." --Opinion Journal 1/23/04

http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110004603 

WEASLEY CLARK'S LAUNDRY 

"Democrats are so delirious about finding a general who is a pacifist scaredy-cat that no one seems to have bothered to investigate whether Wesley Clark is sane. ... If he were president, Clark says, there would be no more terrorist attacks. ... Under Clark's command, the U.S. bombed the Chinese Embassy by mistake, killing three Chinese journalists. Other NATO air strikes under Clark mistakenly damaged the Swiss, Spanish, Swedish, Norwegian and Hungarian ambassadors' residences. Despite the absence of ground troops, Yugoslavia took three American POWs, whose release was eventually brokered by Jesse Jackson. America was standing tall. ... Clark's forces bombed a civilian convoy by mistake, killing more than 70 ethnic Albanians, and then Clark openly lied about it to the press. First he denied NATO had done it, and when forced to retract that, Clark pinned the blame on an innocent U.S. pilot. ... Eventually, even a model of probity like Bill Clinton was shocked by Clark's mendacity and fired him. ... At the end of major combat operations led by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Wesley Clark, arch-villain Slobodan Milosevic was still in power. ... Today, almost a decade and $15 billion later, U.S. troops are still bogged down in the Balkans. No quagmire there! ... That's the Democrats' idea of a general." --Ann Coulter, quoted in the Federalist 

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