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The Dwinell Political Report
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THE DWINELL POLITICAL REPORT January 03, 2003 Vol. 4, No. 01 Subscribe here *** NEWS AND ANALYSIS *** COME ONE, COME ALL Jim Douglas at his weekly press conference invited everyone to the first Inaugural Ball of this millennium. With the Democrats winning so often, the ball was canceled out of a lack of interest, or maybe a lack of dancing ability. The Ball and your chance to meet a prince will be held on Saturday evening, January 11 at the Plumley Armory on the Norwich University campus in Northfield from 8-11. Between 3,000 and 4,000 invitations have been sent out but all are welcome. The price is $40, the Vermont Jazz Ensemble will provide music, and the net proceeds will go to the United Way for alcohol and drug prevention and treatment. Reply cards can be found at http://www.JimDouglas.org
LET THE GAMES BEGIN Next week, your state house will be abuzz with high drama, a confluence of forces not seen for decades. As the constitution declares, the legislature will meet on the first Wednesday after the first Monday of January, January 8 at 10:00 A.M. After prayers and the Pledge of Allegiance, the Secretary of State will call the roll. Then the election of speaker will take place. Most observers believe that Speaker Walter Freed, R-Dorset, will prevail against his opponent Representative John Tracy, D-Burlington. But in a secret ballot, all commitments and promises can waiver. In the afternoon, Governor Howard Dean will end his farewell tour of Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Burlington and Bennington with an emotional speech expressing his gratitude for allowing him to serve in "the best job in America," governor of Vermont. The fun continues on Thursday with the election of governor and lieutenant governor beginning at 9:30 A.M. There has been no rumor of skullduggery. Each representative and senator has one vote, ninety-one votes win. The breakdown is eighty-eight Democrats, eighty-five Republicans, four Progressives, and three Independents. The Democrats and the Progressives can combine to work their will. In the afternoon at 2:00 the oath of office will be given to all the constitutional state officers. The governor will then give an inaugural address.
HEAR YE, HEAR YE The almost governor Jim Douglas said today that he is looking for a few good women and men to make their interests know to him about serving on a variety of boards and commissions which advise him and state government. Below is not an exhaustive list; there is also the education board, the transportation board, the environmental boards and commissions, the liquor control board, and so forth. AccountantsFor more information go to the Secretary of State's web site, or http://www.vtprofessionals.org/opr1/opr/who/boardex.html Send information about your interest to: The Office of Gubernatorial Transition, 133 State Street, Drawer 33, Montpelier, VT 05633-1901
A BAD START All candidates ran on a platform of job creation. All candidates ran on a platform of permit reform, "arthritic" as incoming Senate Pro Tem Peter Welch, D-Windsor, describes the permit process. Somehow the state Environmental Board did not get the message. It could have easily and quickly begun the change to a more user-friendly permit process. They merely tried to limit environmental group's unlimited participation and appeal rights. The AP wrote, "after widespread public criticism, the state Environmental Board has dropped a bid to rewrite the rules implementing the Act 250 land-use law." The widespread criticism was by a few. They ignored the 230,161 folks who voted for Racine, Douglas or Hogan, all of whom wanted a quicker, easier and more predictable permit process. Amazing.
FRIENDS The good and great friends of the Democrats are the trial lawyers, their association and its members. They have been the most generous contributors to the party nationally in recent years. The Democrats have done their bidding to insure that no real tort reform is enacted. If your friends come to Vermont and stay at the Green Trails Inn in Brookfield according to a story in The Herald of Randolph, they will not go sledding. The Inn's over 100 year tradition of sledding on the hill behind the Inn has come to an end. Their insurance company now prohibits "sledding" as an allowable activity on Inn property. Thanks to all you environmental friendly Dems. Wonder how much fun virtual sledding is?
EXECUTIVE ORDERS? Douglas announced that he and his staff are in the process of reviewing all executive orders by all governors. These orders appear to last only until another governor might announce a new policy. Until that time though, the executive orders have taken on life as legislation. How did this happen anyway? The queen/king speaketh and it is law? The issue at hand was made urgent by a press conference by many of the constituencies of the Champion Lands: members of the Citizen Advisory Committee, Vermont Maple Sugar Makers Association, Vermont Outdoor Guide Association, Vermont Forest Products Association, Associated Industries of Vermont, Northeast Regional Forest Foundation, and so forth. Many legislators were in attendance. Their complaint was that Dean's election eve executive order redefined the management authority without including any of the various stakeholders in the process. It appeared to be no more than electioneering when Dean reminded folks at the eleventh hour that it was Democrats who would do more land conservation. Dean made other anti business executive orders such as the one to prohibit development at interstate exits, preserving the open scene for our visitors and stopping investment where investment was meant to be made. Fewer jobs, fewer sales taxes, fewer gasoline taxes, fewer property taxes. Who says that the Dean was not for tax relief?
WERE YOU NAUGHTY? Act 60's mechanism for automatically raising our education property taxes each year, the Common Level of Appraisal, is once again in action. The new numbers arrived in cities and towns during Christmas week like coal in our municipal stockings. Only Burlington's new CLA seemed to make the news. The Queen City's education property taxes will increase by more than 10 percent before any spending increases are factored in. In 2003, before taking into account any spending increases, education property taxes in at least 213 Vermont cities and towns will increase. These increases will exceed 15 percent in 6 municipalities, range from 10-15 percent in 18 municipalities, 5-10 percent in 92 municipalities, and be under 5 percent in 97 relatively more fortunate cities and towns. Of the remaining 49 municipalities, about half went through reassessment last year making it impossible to calculate their increases with the data on hand. A table of the State's new CLA numbers and the associated tax impacts will be posted at http://www.Act60.org within the next day or so.
THE DEAN LEGACY CONTINUES Living paycheck to paycheck, many folks were jolted by layoffs from well paying jobs and unable to make ends meet. Thus bankruptcies in 2002 were up 5.5 percent over 2001 according to an AP story. According to an attorney quoted, it is the IBMers declaring bankruptcy, not the dead enders.
BRIDGE OF DREAMS Build it and they will come. And build it they will. The Colchester bike bridge contract was signed the day after the Board of Transportation approved it. An Agency of Transportation employee drove to the offices of Kubricky Construction in Glens Falls, New York to sign the contract for the building of the "Howard Dean" Bike Bridge to avoid any possible stopping of its construction by the incoming administration.
GREED STALLED The South Burlington teacher contract talks are stalled. The issues are money, more money, and more money; oh and of course nearly free benefits regardless of cost or reality. Recall in days of yore when teachers were threatening to strike over issues involving the classroom, control, curriculum, discipline, textbooks, better libraries or computers? Not today. Today it is not about the students or their needs, it is about the teachers and their needs.
WORKMAN’S COMPENSATION In making the announcement of a new commissioner of the Department of Employment and Training, we asked Douglas if he was going to focus on improving the employers' chances when appearing before the departments for an unemployment compensation hearing or workman’s compensation hearing. Though Douglas said that he had heard on the campaign trail and during his economic summits about the high cost of workman’s compensation, he had not heard concerns about the process. THE MOTORCYCLER Here are a couple of true stories, first about workman’s compensation. On Monday, an employee claims to have hurt his back tripping over something in a work area. There were no witnesses. Upon investigation by the employer, it was learned that the employee had been thrown off his motorcycle that weekend in an accident documented by an accident report. Workman’s compensation was granted by the state. The employer appealed and lost. The "workplace accident" cost the employer over $100,000. It is not just the cost of care. It is the cost of a permanent damage claim compensating the employee for future potential earnings by his/her being physically impaired, the cost of a reserve for the employee’s health care in the future, and the higher cost for one’s workman’s compensation insurance for the next several years. THE HARD WORKER An employee suffered a finger injury. Bandaged up, the employer asked that the employee return to work for "light duty." No, he was too hurt. The employer discovered and documented on videotape that the employee was not only receiving workman’s compensation benefits and his regular payroll, but he was working in a grocery store and as a flagman for road construction. The employer appealed and lost. The cost will be near $50,000 for the employer, most of that money going to an out-of-state insurance company in higher premiums. THE SNOWMOBILER An employee works for six weeks. She complains about a wrist problem. The employee wins a workman’s compensation award for a permanent lifetime injury, treatment and nine months of wages. Before, during and after this period, the employee continued to snowmobile and work in a firewood business. The employer pleaded and lost. A government which is sympathetic only to the worker decided each of these cases. The employers were not just wrong, they were bad. Insurance companies do not care either; they just charge higher premiums. The state does not care about employers. The employee not only does not care, the event has a contagious effect as other employees see how easy it is to be paid for not working and to receive a lump sum damage amount. Appeals are expensive and almost unwinnable. Believing them to be hopeless, many companies have stopped "wasting their time." Douglas needs to be made aware of these difficulties of doing business in a state where the predominate values among many regulators is that business is just bad to the bone and that empathy and understanding can only apply to the employee.
UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION Unemployment compensation determinations in Vermont have been very business unfriendly. Tales of woe similar to the workman’s compensation stories could be told. Here is how the system works. Every employer is given a rate by the state, either based on its historical pattern of adding folks to the unemployment rolls or through an assignment of an industry average. Some industries traditionally create more unemployment than others do. The range is about .4 to 6.2 percent of payroll depending on how often the firm creates unemployment claims through layoffs. For example, a seasonal company might have a very high rate. A steady long-term employer might have a very low rate. If the company’s payroll is $1,000,000, a five-percent difference means $50,000 a year. The rate is figured on a three year rolling average so a high rate might cost the employer in this case $150,000. It is not that employers are always right, nor it is that employees are always right. Vermont is not China; it does not have sweatshops which drive workers to an early grave. Vermont employers must compete. Saddled with state employees, board members, commissioners, and judges sympathetic only with the employee’s story does not allow employers to compete with North Carolina, Virginia, or New Hampshire, let alone China. CATCH-22 A true story. An investor buys most of the assets of an ongoing business. It has a high unemployment compensation rate of 3.8 percent of payroll. The new entity is deemed a successor company and the new business is given the rate of the old business, not the average for that industry which is lower. They are stuck with this for three years. The same investor buys most of the assets of another company. It has a rate of .4 percent. It is not deemed a successor company and is given the industry average rate of 2.6 percent. You just cannot win in Vermont. YOU LOSE When an employee is fired for "cause", the employers account is not deemed responsible for the employee and its rate is not affected. The employee cannot receive benefits for six weeks. It has been very hard to prove that any employee was fired for "cause." The state people responsible for these determinations almost always find on the side of the employee. Poor employee, she/he will have to go without benefits for six weeks. Companies can afford it, employees cannot. What if the employee deserved to be fired? Sorry, better luck next time. In fact some companies cannot afford it and fold. Others choose not to and move to a more business friendly state. Others sell and move to investor friendly Florida. In each case, the employee may win, but the state loses.
MARX BITES THE DUST, AGAIN Remember three years ago, California was running out of power? Power companies, supposedly deregulated, had not been allowed to buy energy in long term contracts. Governor Dean and others crowed, we were right not to deregulate. To the rescue comes government. They were allowed to buy long term contracts and did. Like lambs to the slaughter, Enron and others created a run up of prices to stick Californians with a fifty percent rate increase. The state then whined, we did not know what we were doing, please free us from those awful deals that we agreed to? This week, California threw in the towel. Not suited to be energy traders, they have returned the buying of power to the utilities.
DOUGLAS GOES TO UVM Middlebury graduate Jim Douglas announced Thursday that unlike his predecessors, he will become an active member of the board of Trustees of the University of Vermont. He said that he had previously relayed his intent to new President Fogel.
CONFUSED Auditor Elizabeth Ready came out of hiding after her career was nearly derailed by expense account concerns and pronounced that Vermont's weatherization program is great. "Every dollar spent locally to weatherize a home means nearly $2 need not be spent on foreign energy sources," she says in an AP story. Her example is an East Corinth farmer who had been heating with wood. Thanks to the state's installing a new oil burner, the gentleman is now pleased to be able to burn oil instead of wood. Maybe it was the New Year's champagne, but how is replacing the burning of Vermont hardwood with Mid-Eastern oil not spending money "on foreign energy sources?"
*** MEDIA NOTES *** WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN? Christopher Graff used his recent weekly column to claim that Vermont's two senators are still powerful. He quotes Rutgers Professor Baker, "I do not think that we will see any Vermont projects on the chopping block." Maybe Baker is behind in his reading but the first project on the chopping block was the Northeast Interstate Dairy Compact. The depression to hit the farm business and the economy of many a small town was caused directly by Senator Jim Jeffords's switching parties. Why should that be the end of it? Jim Douglas this week said that his farm policy is to reestablish the Compact. He said that "80-90 percent of all Vermont agriculture revenue is dairy based," noting that the state Ag Department should realistically concentrate primarily on the Compact's reestablishment. It is not just farmers and their communities, it is our values, open space, the tourist industry, and our neighboring states. The Free Press published an AP article about the Massachusetts dairy industry; farms there over the last decade-and-a-half dropping from 1,200 to 249. Processors did not like the compact and worked hard to bring about its demise. Now they are perched to have a monopoly over all of New England. Did you see the processors drop their price in your store when the farm-gate price plummeted by 40 percent? Naw, the processors would not do that, they have better representation in Congress.
CRY FOR THE PULITZER'S PAPER Wrong but never in doubt. The Rutland Herald and Times Argus returned to "Lott's Ordeal" for the seemingly hundredth time. They write, "Lott's apostasy on his party's racial politics probably doomed any chances he could hold onto power... Conservatives wanted to get rid of him because he could no longer be counted on to resist civil rights measure favored by Democrats... Lott's ordeal has briefly exposed the poverty of a politics designed to serve the privileged at the expense of everyone else." Full editorial here: http://rutlandherald.nybor.com/Archive/Articles/Article/57958 The Economist was more on point. "Mainstream media was initially blind to his remarks... (others) would not let up... online critics, Glen Reynolds, Andrew Sullivan and the National Review, are conservatives. They (were) unwilling to 'wrap segregation in the gauze of collective amnesia'... Had Mr. Lott faced criticism only from Democrats, he might have shrugged it off as merely partisan. Attacks from the right on issues of principle were more damaging."
TRAINING WHEELS Jason Gibbs is the almost Governor Jim Doulglas's press secretary designate. Thursday at 5:33 PM we received a press release entitled "Douglas announced three cabinet secretaries." In fact he had announced two commissioners, former Representative Anne Ginevan of Middlebury as Commissioner of Employment and Training and Steve Kerr as Commissioner of Agriculture. At 6:03 we received a corrected press release. At 6:04 we received the following one line email: "Gibbs, Jason would like to recall the message, 'Press Release'." Charming.
I KNOW BEST Dr. Laura interrupts before you can even pour out your heart. Emphatically she says, you must fix your relationship by following her advice. It is simple you fool she intones. Sadly, she could not practice what she preached. On the recent death of her mother, she said that she had not even spoken to her for eons as her mother preferred to be estranged.
MAN OF THE YEAR For decades, Time magazine awarded its "man of the year" to folks like Churchill, Eisenhower, and all the other great guys. Over time, Time changed its ways to "person" of the year. This year's choice was "persons" of the year, three women who tried to right the wrongs of their employers and were trashed for their efforts. For years many a corporate woman knew about endless secrets. They knew the hanky panky, the sex, lies, and fraudulent statements. But they demurred, went home to their real lives. Hopefully these women of the year represent a new breed willing to share with stakeholders the ills of their institutions. Congratulations to them.
*** THE ROAR OF THE CROWD: EMAIL *** WHAT A MEDIA FRENZY! »» Craig Averill, Goshen: Are the Democrats sore losers or what? This whole Trent Lott thing is a joke. Trent, as far as I could see, was paying a Senator of 48 years a compliment, a compliment that we all have said to a long time friend, co-worker etc. "If you had been there blank blank, we wouldn't have been in this mess." What is so different about Trent Lott saying it to a fella who turned 100 and you or me to a fellow co-worker or friend or whatever. He is a Republican and the Democrats need a dirt story, so they create one, out of 23 words. I don't see the N word in those 23 words, I don't see KKK in those 23 words, I don't see one word of prejudice written in those 23 words, I merely see a compliment to an old man who served for 48 years and ran for President on the Dixicrat Platform. Big Deal. I mean people say things now a days without saying it and the media, hungry for dirt are speculating and everyone seems to be jumping on the band wagon. Damn. Did I miss something? Who said running on the Dixicrat Platform, that Thrumond supported the KKK or whatever it is that has everyone screaming foul? Where is the proof that all this speculation has any truth at all and was that really what Lott meant? Prove it. Was Democrat Senator Robert Byrd a KKK member? Yes. Where is the dirt? If the media is going to destroy someone, do it with facts and not speculation. Clinton was an Angel and Lott is an evil man... I know this is a bad dream... When do I wake up? I think the Republicans need to regroup. Newt was lost over nothing and now Lott and many of us are agreeing with this nonsense. We make ourselves look unworthy and evil, by admitting to speculated wrongs or were they wrongs? Pure media GOSSIP and gossip with no premise.
A HAVEN FOR END-OF-THE-ROADERS »» Daniel Foty, Fletcher: I think that we have reached a point where even with changes in the political structure (which can't hurt), "Vermont" may no longer be a viable entity because we no longer have a functional society. Over the past 10 - ?? (30+??) years, Vermont has been attracting and retaining fringe lunatics while exporting normal people who do normal things on normal days. I think that perhaps the "wide range" of views is a symptom of this - that Vermont is overloaded with fringe people who aren't able to function socially in a normal (American) society and so end up coming here to hide in the woods where they can be wacko and not face any day-to-day pressure to grow up and act like there are other people in the world. If these people had to get out and "do commerce" every day, it would quickly moderate their views - they'd learn to listen to other people rather than just pontificate at them. I don't know if you've ever visited Alaska or Hawaii. Once you get past the breathtaking scenery, you start to figure out that the populations in both places are overstocked with people who basically flunked out of life everywhere else and thus have exported themselves to the very fringes where they can hide out and not be subjected to the daily stresses which force painful introspection. In Alaska, they refer to people like this as "end-of-the-roaders" for obvious reasons. I fear that Vermont has been going the same way - of becoming a sump for people who are social failures, have a grossly overinflated (at least outwardly) opinion of their own intellectual abilities, but who can't handle the day-to-day stress of normal life. I really don't see how we can get out of this mess until this is reversed. My yardstick for any public policy changes would be, "Will this help bring in psychologically-normal, productive people, who will do things to improve both our economy and our society?" Someone once said that "Statecraft is soulcraft." We may have to find out.
THAT STEALTHY INCOME TAX INCREASE »» Rep. Richard Marron, Stowe: I think we understand that some individuals will have different tax liabilities, but for the most part there will be little change in tax liability. I think Art Woolf attributes withholding tax collections to an improved job situation. Frankly, it is hard to know exactly what drives some of the numbers. I do know that state revenue collections are a couple of million less than they were in FY 02 through November. Some of that is a result of continuing refunds which are a result of 2001 tax returns. We have also had a couple of large estate tax payments. There is a new newsletter from JFO which should be on their website.
WHAT DOES A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR MEAN? »» Bill Brueckner, Waterbury Center: [Can we] look forward to Governor Jim Douglas rescinding all of the programs the Democrats started since the first Democrat governor? Can the inhabitants of Vermont look forward to significantly reduced taxes gathered by a constitutionally valid tax system? Does this mean that we can look forward to the elimination of commanding, controlling and regulating government agencies, towns and cities that erode and eliminate our rights to a constitutional frame of government? Or will the Democrat Senate become the scapegoat for no change leaving government under the Republicans the same as government under the Democrats? Republicans' failure to produce change will fertilize a growing crop of independents and cynical non-voters.
THEY LIKE US »» Randy Brock: I enjoy your publication a great deal. Many thanks. »» Herb Hillman, Stowe: Good issue! You are doing some fine work. You seem to do much research. Thank you. »» Dennis McMahon, Burlington: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Sorry to hear you won't have an issue next week. I'm going to feel totally in the dark, politically, but your stuff is so interesting and helpful... I suppose you deserve a break after all. Thanks for all your insightful news and views. »» R. Michael Humiston, Kittery, ME: I learned of your site from an associate during my last drill weekend at the Vermont Air National Guard. I am a native Vermonter living in exile in Kittery, Maine and until now my source for Vermont political news came from either family members or fellow Green Mountain Boys. Your site gives me hope, keep up the excellent work and have a very merry Christmas! »» Neil Vallencourt, Waterbury: Thank you for keeping me well informed again this year. »» Karen Kerin, South Royalton: Hey just a quick note to wish you and yours a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. You deserve a week off. * *
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*** QUOTABLE *** WHEN THE SHOE IS ON THE OTHER FOOT "We must make efforts to lower the level of partisanship in the United States Senate." -- Sen. Patrick Leahy, ABC This Week 12/22/02
SEE A CONNECTION? "If money were the answer, Washington public schools would be the best in the nation, per student expenditure are $10,5000 a year with a student teacher ratio of 15.8 to one. Yet, only one of the city's nineteen high schools test above 50 percent in reading and none test 50 percent in math." --Columnist Walter Williams
LOOK FOR THE UNION LABEL Here are some examples of the shopping spree former Washington Teachers Union president Barbara Bullock enjoyed with union funds: * $150,000 at Neiman MarcusWashington Times on this topic: http://www.washtimes.com/metro/20021228-15120244.htm and http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20021229-9040184.htm More on this scandal: “Union Tardy Paying Bills, Premiums, Sources Say,” by Valerie Strauss, The Washington Post, December 25, 2002, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35309-2002Dec24.html “FBI Lists Evidence Seized in Union Case,” by Neely Tucker and Justin Blum, The Washington Post, December 24, 2002, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31352-2002Dec23.html To view the FBI affidavit in support of the search warrant for the homes and offices of the leaders of the Washington Teachers' Union, surf to http://www.dcwatch.com/schools/ps021218.htm
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