THE DWINELL
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REPORT 

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THE DWINELL POLITICAL REPORT
 December 16, 2004   Vol. 5, No. 09 
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Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night, and Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanza, Season’s Greetings, and Happy New Year to all our wonderful and loyal readers. Thank you for reading our writings. Thank you for your contribution, written, monetary, or in spreading the word.


*** NEWS AND ANALYSIS ***

THE CRASH OF ‘05

Grandparents told us of the great crash of ‘29, young men, overextended in the market, leaped from office windows. The crash of ’05 will not be so dramatic. It will not drive the young insane. It will be easy to explain, not dissimilar to 1929, spending beyond your means.

How could it be? In a state with a six percent sales tax, a nine percent room and meals tax, an income tax, an inheritance tax with a wealthy dying population, a higher tiered property tax for non-residents with the non-resident population the largest of any state in the country, with their homes thirty-six percent higher value than residents', a low fertility rate, dropping school population, and low philanthropic level.

BLESSSED ARE WE

We are rich. A gift received from God, our gentle, pleasing, unique topography. Gifts drawn from our ancestors who designed and build homes and town centers with a unique style and grace. Gifts given by those who have worked and do work the land, a gift of the character of the people passing down culture and heritage. A homogeneous, well educated population. Blessed with the lowest unemployment rate in the nation.

The legislators will assemble in Montpelier, a liberal legislature, fired with ideals and ideas to help the little guy, protect the land, clean the air and waters, raise teacher pay, and raise our taxes. They do not want to hear of a $70,000,000 hole in human services. Yet rumor has it the hole is now deeper. They will raise taxes and fees defying logic, reason and experience to draw blood from stone.

MODERATION AND FRUGALITY TAKE A BACKSEAT

Education is sacrosanct. That we have more educators per student than any other state is not relevant. That the number of educators grows while the student population shrinks is not relevant. That many older Vermonters beggared or threatened by penury have decamped with their capital to Florida and other points south is not relevant.

That our jails are full of DUI folks, drugs addicts, and alcohol abusers is not relevant. According to Judge Paul Hudson, eighty-five percent of all prisoners are incarcerated because of substance abuse is not relevant. That treatment is more worthwhile than incarceration is not relevant; build more jails, complete with “crime methods training” and “networking opportunities,” and throw away the key.

THE ABYSS

That state-reimbursed health care costs make the largest granite quarry in the world look like a thimble is not relevant. That everyone is a victim and need not accept personal responsibility is not relevant. That they will mine more gold from the spent, squeeze more lucre from the impoverished, will drive folks to ask once again, “Who is John Galt?”

The folks operating in the 47th worse business climate, that of the Green Mountains, will follow the sun to more friendly climes. A slight rumble will be felt when Atlas Shrugs.

FORTRESS VERMONT

Laws will be passed that you cannot go, just like new zoning laws in Montpelier that you may not build housing where you are allowed to build housing.

A favorite anecdote of Russians follows: In Germany you can only do what you are allowed to do, in America you are allowed to anything which is not prohibited, in France you are allowed to do anything, even that which is not allowed, and in Russia you are not allowed to do anything, even that which is allowed. Sound familiar?

THE FIX IS IN

How can we fix this, fill the hole? Refer to the Constitution of the Republic of Vermont, circa 1777.

Article 1st. That all men are born equally free and independent, and have certain natural, inherent, and unalienable rights, amongst which are the enjoying and defending life and liberty, acquiring, possessing and protecting property...

Tell that to the Aja Family, owners of Sabin’s Pasture in Montpelier, and the thousands before them who cannot possess and protect property, those thousands who have had a partner forced upon them, state and local government, who cannot enjoy the benefits of their property.

CONSTITUTION LAW 101 CONTINUES

Article 2nd. That private property ought to be subservient to public uses when necessity requires it, nevertheless, whenever any person’s property is taken for the use of the public, the owner ought to receive an equivalent in money.

Zoning has been taking property for years. First, no building above 2,500 feet without Act 250 approval, then no building above 1,800 feet. No building in flood plains. No building in wetlands. No building in view of interstate exits. No building in view sheds. No building on less than five acres. No changes in historic districts.

Each is a “taking” not recompensed with an “equivalent in money.” It is against the law.

If development was allowed to occur, a tax base would be built, intelligent tax policy would lead to thoughtful but restrained public investment.

Article 3rd. That all men have a natural and unalienable right...to be regulated by the word of God...

Whoops, political he-man just reelected for the 12th straight time by an almost a three-to-one margin, Bernie Sanders, says that God is a wedge issue.

BACK TO BASICS

Article 4th. Every person ought to find a certain remedy for all injustices or wrongs which he may receive in his person, property, or character...without any denial; promptly and without delay...

Right, just try. Complain once, harassment will follow.

Article 9th. That every member of society hath a right to be protected in the enjoyment of...property...no part of any person’s property can be justly taken from him...

Regulation and zoning make mockery of our constitution.

Article 18th. That frequent recurrence to fundamental principles, and a firm adherence to justice, moderation, temperance, industry, and frugality are absolutely necessary to preserve the blessings of liberty, and keep government free; the people ought, therefore to pay particular attention to these points, in the choice of officers and representatives, and have a right...to exact a due and constant regard to them, from their legislators in making and executing such laws as are necessary for the good government...

RESOLVED:

Commit to protecting private property.

Commit to compensating takings.

Commit to moderation and frugality.

Simple, as Nike says, just do it.


IF IT PASSED IN OREGON, IT WOULD PASS HERE

Speaking of Oregon’s Nike, Measure 37 simply requires the government to compensate landowners when values are hurt by land use rules, zoning, and regulations. Another blue state, similar to ours, passed this measure November 2nd, 60-40. It would surely pass here if given a chance.


IN A LEAGUE OF HIS OWN

You do not have to spend much time around Auditor-elect Randy Brock to know that he is the real deal, perhaps the most qualified Auditor of Accounts ever elected. His two Democrat predecessors were perhaps the least qualified, Ed Flanagan and Elizabeth Ready. Ready’s remedy was to create a bachelor and master’s degree. This fabrication once exposed heralded her early departure from office.

Flanagan was the first auditor DPR found to not have completed an audit within the statutory limits. Ready has yet to complete the fiscal year ending June 30, 2003, now nine months beyond the limit. At one of Flanagan’s first meetings after being elected in 1992, he turned to the Democrat Treasurer Paul Ruse, Jr. and said, “They are talking about a ‘physical year’. What is a ‘physical year?’” Ruse explained to Ed fiscal years. Ed returned the favor by hounding Ruse out of office, paving the way for the return of Jim Douglas to elected office as our treasurer; he has yet to lose an election since.


DON’T COME TO THE AID OF YOUR PARTY

All but two of Jim Douglas’s appointed members of the legislature failed in their bids to hold their seat this fall. This is in part a fault of the system. When a member passes away or resigns, the town or county Republican Committee nominates candidates for the job. Douglas then interviews and appoints. Too often they nominate the party faithful. These folks, however deserving, may not be the best candidates.


CORRUPTING THE YOUTH

Harry, 10, took his money to the store prepared to buy a two items. He planned, he saved, he calculated, he shopped. But he could not buy. “What is the extra 6 percent? A tax they said? Isn’t there a place near here where there is no tax?” Word spreads early of New Hampshire, the bewitcher to the east.


GIVE ME ROSSIGNOL OR GIVE ME HEAD

Memories. That clever and almost over the edge advertising campaign of the 70’s was outdone by the first lady of San Francisco, like Vermont, one of the bluest areas of the country.

Attending a gay right fundraiser, Kimberly Guilfoyle Newsom was quoted in Campaigns and Elections’ December issue, “I know that many of you wanted to see my husband and some of you had questions out there. Is he hot? Yeah. Is he hung? Yeah. Is he bi-sexual? Not unless you can give better head than me.”


BUYING VOTES

The Kerry campaign asked the Democrat National Committee to pay Reverend Sharpton to do a little campaigning. In all he was paid $86,715 in expenses and fees. Sharpton was earlier criticized for spending almost all his contributions during his primary campaign on palatial personal expenses. None of the other “losers” required reimbursement.

Two problems here. First, who says that Sharpton is a black leader whom anybody is going to follow? In South Carolina where the AP reported that nearly half of this year’s Democrat primary vote was black, Sharpton took in just ten percent of the vote, only twenty percent of the black vote. No “elected” leader here.

Secondly, who says that only black folks can talk to black folks. Bit racist Mr. Kerry. Black folks are interested in the same stuff white folks are, education, public safety, housing, health care, and jobs.

MR. INGRATE

Knowing how to kick a guy when he is down, Veep wannabe John Edwards was quoted in the National Journal dishing his running mate. “The most important thing that we need in a future presidential campaign is a message that is clear and strong, and a candidate who believes it to his or her soul. It is the core of a successful run for the presidency. Otherwise, it sounds like today’s message is yesterday’s poll.”

KERRY LOST THE BAREFOOT AND PREGNANT VOTE

More folks with families voted for Bush. The American Conservative publication wrote that twenty-five of the top twenty-six states with the highest white fertility rates voted for Bush; the sixteen states with the lowest fertility rates voted for Kerry.

As a conservative was quoted in National Journal, “Failed liberal social experiments promoting personal freedom do not make for strong families or strong societies. Personal responsibility trumps personal freedom for families.”


BAD LIBERAL IDEA, TAKE # 279

Stanford Law Review published a 113-page study on racial preferences for law school admissions written by Professor Richard Sander of UCLA. His conclusion: “Blacks are victims of law school programs with affirmative action, not the beneficiaries...racial preferences significantly worsen blacks’ individual chances of passing the bar by moving them up to schools at which they will frequently perform badly.”

“The academic game of musical chairs where blacks are consistently bumped up several seats in the law school hierarchy, producing a large black-white gap at nearly all law schools in the academic credentials of students. Around 50 percent of black students end up in the bottom tenth of the class. Only 8 percent place in the top half. ”

According to a National Journal column, blacks admitted to law schools would decline by 14 percent if admissions were colorblind, but their graduation rates, grades, and chances of passing the bar would improve dramatically. Blacks joining the legal profession would rise by more than 8 percent. Currently, 19 percent of blacks drop out of law school and 40 percent of those who do graduate never pass the bar and become attorneys.


FREE AT LAST, THANK GOD ALMIGHTY, FREE AT LAST

Ukraine, under the Russian boot since 1654, through Tsars, Tsarinas, the proletariat of the people, Stalin’s artificial genocidal famine, the Brezhnev/Gorbachev years, and pushy Putin is approaching freedom, finally.

It came about Biblically, “And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.” Just after the election, the state controlled television news reported that Yanukovich had won. Simultaneously, the lady signing for the deaf was telling a different story: this is all a crock, there was massive fraud, people voted early and often, and turnout was well above 100 percent in some districts. With the bold truth fortifying the citizens, they took to the streets.

Your editor, while working in the Ukraine in 1990, urged the democrats to get behind the “right” person. No, they argued, we only want freedom; the right person will come later. During the Communist rule, it was crime to speak Ukrainian, to dance Ukrainian folk dances.

Barely, by the skin of their chinny chin chin, true freedom may now come true. President Kuchma did his best to return Ukraine to Russia. The people had the idea that they are Europeans. Let freedom ring.

FREE AT LAST TAKE 2

In the last thirty-five years, free from Communism: Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia, Albania, Bosnia, Macedonia, Georgia, Ukraine, Ethiopia, Benin, and East Germany.

Free from military rule: Spain, Greece, Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina, Chile, Panama, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and others.

Free from dictatorship: Cambodia, Philippines, Iraq, Uganda, and more.

Free from white rule: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and many others.

Free from chaos: Somalia.


*** MEDIA NOTES ***

RICH PEOPLE ARE DIFFERENT

So are liberals. The Sunday Free Press editorial ended, “Vermonters must now rely on lawmakers to...stay focused on what really matters; making life better in this state.”

Not surprisingly, they got it exactly wrong. Get the lawmakers out of the way and you will have affordable housing, a growing tax base, local control, and entrepreneurial activity. Maybe the Free Press is not satisfied with our being 47th in business friendly attitude and is aiming for 50th.


PULITIZER PRIZEFIGHTER

Give that Rutland Herald a chance and they will once again beat their award winning drum. As DPR pointed out, theirs and Jon Margolis’ similar conclusion in the Free Press that Bush’s victory was driven by homophobia is wrong.

From the New Yorker, “There was agreement among the polling experts at the Stanford University post election meeting that the presence of a marriage initiative on the ballot did not measurably increase turnout for Bush, and did not help him win states that he otherwise would have lost.”

But why let facts get in the way of a good tale? But wait, redemption, apology? Well, not quite. In the December 13th effort, the editorial suggested that they may have been misled by their own legacy. “It is now becoming clear that the instant wisdom about the election last month was wrong...commentators concluded that the issue of gay marriage led to the Bush’s reelection. Soon that conclusion began to look a little hasty.”

No apology, not their fault, they followed the wisdom of “commentators.” But it was almost an admission of error.


CONSISTENT

On Friday, December 10, 2004, Free Press and the Time Argus printed a story about Bush’s second term cabinet. The article was written by AP reporter Jennifer Loven. The Free Press headline was “Six Cabinet members return for 2nd term.” The Times Argus headline was “Bush keeps four Cabinet secretaries.”


*** THE ROAR OF THE CROWD: EMAIL ***

SUPPORT OUR TROOPS?

»» Bob Hardy, Vergennes: I must admit that the Free Press is not read that deeply at our home but it does start the stove pretty well if you take out the 20 supplements. However, I have yet to see a "photo-op" of any one of our Congressional delegation at troop dispatch events. To my recall we have some 1000 troops in theatre or on the way to inner Asia and the Mid-East. Along that line, does any one recall that any of these representatives of the people (and the troops) has participated in support visits to our troops in Iraq or Afghanistan? Excuse me if I am wrong, but it has not been touted to my eyes if such has occurred.


MONTPELIER ICE SKATING

»» Anthony Riva Otis, Montpelier: Kids and families going down to the Burlington waterfront in the 50s for a skate and a breeze-assist on smooth-as-glass ice, or in South Hero where my wife did her skating, was the norm. Vermont Life pictures outdoor pond skating in its winter issues. Is it nostalgia or is it rural youth practicality that's presented? In the early 60s when I first moved to Montpelier, we had an ice skating rink on the east lawn of Montpelier High School with a small warming hut. There was a flooded rink on the Vermont College green, my current neighborhood, even sporadically into the 90s. An indoor rink is a necessity for competitive ice hockey and freestyle ice skating and ice dancing, but skating for pleasure and exercise at an indoor rink in a winter climate says much about modern culture. Pay to play.


FORGET THE DEMOCRAT-LITE APPROACH

»» Robert Maynard, Williston: In analyzing why the Bush campaign did so poorly here in Vermont, Bill & Dinny Adamson of Charlotte noted:

"Gov. Douglas, chair of the President's Vermont reelection committee, pointed out his disagreements with Bush administration environmental policies in some of his campaign ads. This may have bumped Jim up, but what did it do for--or to--the president's vote? De-emphasizing GOP disagreements was the purpose of Ronald Reagan's "Eleventh Commandment." Featuring those distinctions in campaign ads was not helpful for Bush in Vermont."

Unfortunately, the presidential campaign is not the only place where the Vermont GOP suffered for its "Democrat Lite" approach. After making gains in the State Legislature for two consecutive campaigns (1998 & 2000), the Vermont GOP has taking a bath in the Legislative campaigns for the last two consecutive campaigns. Under Jim Douglas's leadership, the Vermont GOP has fallen for the myth that being "divisive" is a political loser in Vermont. Tell that to Bernie Sanders. (Our most successful politician is also our most divisive.) It was the "divisive" campaigns in 1998 and 2000, led by Ruth Dwyer, that started a GOP revival at the grass roots level. Sure Ruth did not win, but she came closer than any other Republican candidate ever did to defeating Dean and, more importantly, she had significant "coattails" in the local races. I have no intention of resurrecting Ruth politically, except to point out that her "divisive" approach is surely needed if the GOP is to stop it's slide into oblivion at the grass roots level.


RUN THAT BY ME AGAIN?

»» Nat Goodhue, Stowe: I followed the logic of your analysis of why the Clinton presidential elections in '92 and '96 were not an endorsement of the Democratic Leadership Council's "Republican lite" platform and why following Clinton's Republican lite advice contributed to Senator Kerry losing the election of '04. I did not see a logical explanation of how this means Senator Kerry "will never be president because he is unfit for command." Could you connect the dots?

Editor's note: In 2008 Kerry will not be a factor at all in our opinion. In the election just passed, Kerry "reported for duty" and in that capacity the voters found him "unfit for command." That of course was a play on the book by that name from the Swift Boat folks. Sorry if we were obtuse.


IN DEFENSE OF THE HOI POLLOI

»» Rep. Dick Marron, Stowe: The Planning commission and Town Plan support affordable housing in Stowe. The Select Board applied for a grant which was essentially turned over to Lamoille Housing Partnership to develop affordable housing in Stowe. Rep-elect Lucy Leriche from Hardwick was executive director and was committed to a 44 unit project in Sylvan Park. It was turned down by Development Review Board. I suggested early on that they might want to consider mixed use housing similar to what is happening in Burlington. Basically they did not want to do that which was unfortunate. The project was denied by our DRB for legitimate reasons and is currently being appealed. I would feel better if you were not picking on the golden goose.


THEY LIKE US

»» Airell Jenks, Woodstock: Keep up the good work!


*** COMMENTARY ***

THE NOT SO RETIRING
By Harry Holland, son of Vermont, resident of Florida

Retiring business owners face a strong disincentive to remain citizens of Vermont. They establish residence in a more welcoming state such as Florida or New Hampshire. When they sell their business, it is not necessary to remit a portion of the proceeds to Montpelier.

Other states welcome small business people. Some have no income taxes. Others have incentives that further lesson their already low tax rates. Arizona has even excluded the installment gains on the sale of an enterprise for a new resident. They throw in a few extra months of sunshine, longer days, and warm weather.

Ample anecdotal evidence suggests that this population of departing citizens is significant, a growing group of people who live a generation after retirement, an unnoticed industry. This graying sector requires no school funding. It contributes countless hours and dollars to community improvements and organizations.

Many of us would pay a modest premium to retain the green license plate, the vote, the old homestead, and other traditional aspects of local life. However, the all or nothing Vermont tax approach gets them nothing as it sends us packing for the required 186 days per year. We pay no income taxes to Vermont.

Vermont offers incentives to farms, ski areas, captive insurance and manufacturing companies. The desired effects seem to occur, more tax revenue. Well thought out income tax incentives for the growing grays appear to be a can't lose proposition for Vermont.

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*** QUOTABLE ***

THE REAL WORLD, NOT!

"We have created a safe, non-judgmental environment that will leave your child ill prepared for real life." -- New Yorker cartoon, December 6, 2004


CONVERSATION- A VETERAN AND A MILITARY WIFE

"Can I help you find something?" I asked. He hesitated, and then told me he was looking for soap. "Any one in particular?" I continued. "Well, I'm trying to find my wife's brand of soap." I started to loan him my cell phone to call her when he said, "She died a year ago, and I just want to smell her again." -- Paige Swiney, Sacramento Bee, August 15, 2004


IS IT THE WATER?

"The weight of a Security Council member state's vote could be inversely proportional to the number of weapon systems of that nation giving nations that lack military power increased voting power. It would discourage militarization and be one step toward global equity." -- Rosemarie Jackowski, an advocacy journalist living in Vermont, The Federalist, December 15, 2004


A MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL

The Terminator ended political correctness: When "California's first lady Maria Shriver turned on the state Christmas tree's 5,000 bulbs, the governor terminated the practice of referring to the traditionally trimmed symbol as a 'holiday tree.'" -- Left Coast Report

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James Dwinell, editor-in-chief of this newsletter, is available for speaking engagements on a variety of political topics. 
Contact: dwinell@comcast.net for more information.



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