| THE DWINELL
POLITICAL REPORT |
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The Dwinell Political Report
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THE DWINELL POLITICAL REPORT November 14, 2005 Vol. 6, No. 16
*** NEWS AND ANALYSIS *** BOYS OF SUMMER Once again the boys of summer entertained. The victorious were Senator Welch, Congressman Sanders, Forward Rich Tarrant, and Chairman Waldo. Well, Waldo was not exactly victorious, but he still stands, barely, on six million sand dollars slowly slipping through the dial measuring his tenure, whereas the "defeated" GOP has $34,000,000 cash on hand. Dean also humped and frumped about appearing with GOP Chair Melman and then shrunk into the "green room" to hide. CONGRESSMAN For the Democrat nomination for Congressman to replace the irreplaceable Bernie Sanders, Senator Matt Dunne was the first from the gate. Then his mentor Senator Peter Welch entered. Young Matt picked up his marbles and went home, albeit temporarily. Peter Shumlin, former senator and the bi-annual statewide candidate promised to stay in the race this time, come hell or high-water. Shumlin zinged Welch, "If we had had real leadership in Montpelier we would have solved the nuclear plant problems in Vernon and had a universal access health care plan." Then high-water threatened and Shumlin folded. Dean for America's online guru Zepher Teachout of Norwich was to enter the race, talking a grass roots campaign. In the end, money talks and Teachout walks. Welch raised hundreds of thousands dollars. Regrettably, Washington also talks. All the Washington chieftains, without the benefit of introduction, congregation, or conversation, decided that only Welch would do. The well went dry for all others. And all others then declined to run. Democrat does not equal democracy. With the exception of Representative David Zuckerman, P-Burlington, Welch has clear sailing until he bumps up against a Republican. SENATE In the campaign to replace Jim Jeffords in the United States Senate, Bernie, the socialist turned progressive turned independent is now endorsed by all Democrats from far and near. Rumor has it that Tony Blair and Prince de Villepin will soon endorse. And Daniel Ortega, Fidel Castro, and Hugo Chavez. Quite the journey for the principled boy from Brooklyn. Ah, misspent youth we guess. Always the outsider, now an insider. Would you believe it? Whom will he rail at? Being the favored son, he has swept away all comers from the Progressive and Democrat Party, hearing nary a whimper from the previously ambitious. NOT WASTING YOUR SEED Rich Tarrant ran the tables, fending off a promised challenge from Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie who suddenly became Brainy Dubie. He recognized that $50,000 in pledges does not match up well with $112,000,000 cash on hand. Dubie chose to keep his light gov job, but he does not have clear sailing. He may be up against Senator Matt Dunne and/or Radio Talk Show Host Anthony Pollina. Senator Mark Shepard is acting like a kid in the candy store. He was going to run for senate but has backed off. Shopping for a race, first senate, then lieutenant governor, Mark has now called General Martha Rainville to warn her that he is in her race. This is a race that Rainville might win and Shepard cannot. Meanwhile, Shepard eschews a race he could win, secretary of state. Deb Markowitz has overstayed her welcome, is more and more unappreciated amongst the town officials whose support she needs to win. The statewide voter list is a debacle in waiting. From there a patient Shepard could move up when Governor Douglas steps down.
THE SHOOTER Every time we use a sports metaphor, the mail arrives gently chiding us for ignoring the sensitivities of our distaff fans. With apologies, here we go again. Rich Tarrant came to Vermont and Saint Michaels College on a full basketball scholarship. He was not "the natural", gifted with great natural ability. He was not even a starter on the Saint Benedict's team in Newark, New Jersey. So how did this poor immigrant’s son from New Jersey attract attention? Practice. Practice. And more practice. A work ethic. A walk-on freshman stint at Saint Bonaventure's helped. He became a star at Saint Michaels. Saint Michaels became a national basketball force. Tarrant has returned the favor to Saint Michaels by donating so much money that there is now a building named the Tarrant Student Recreational Center. THE POLITICAN Similarly, Tarrant began his political career clumsily. Shy, retiring, nervous, unsure, unprepared, and unaware of the history and terms of the political battle, Tarrant did not impress. That has changed. Not yet dynamic, not yet with an answer to every question, and not yet at ease as he works a room, he is practicing. His spaghetti tour for Vermont Republicans has made Tarrant much better. Practice, practice, practice. You can see his progress. You can feel his competitive nature, grit, determination, and commitment. He did not succeed in sports and business naturally; he worked at it. Bernie best not sit back and study the polls. His opponent has not yet arrived. When he does, he will be serious competition.
A ROYAL BATTLE LOOMS It does not take a rocket scientist to observe the hostility that taxpayers have to the skyrocketing public education costs in Vermont. We have witnessed the protracted negotiations in Alburg, Orleans, and Colchester, two of those going to a strike. At Mississquoi Union it took five votes to pass a budget, in Plymouth four. The parties are well apart in contract negotiations in South Burlington, U-32, Barre, and it seems dozens of others. During the recent Colchester struggle, there were many letters printed in the Burlington Free Press about the process. "Googling" the authors' names revealed that all the letters of support we checked were written by current or former teachers (undoubtedly members of the VT NEA). It seems that not one taxpayer without such an affiliation wrote in support of the teachers. Amazing, not one. LIARS ALWAYS FIGURE The VT NEA spin was a fabrication. The constant refrain was that Colchester teachers were the lowest paid in Chittenden County. Not true. The ever growing skeptical Free Press checked that out. Colchester teachers were paid twelve percent higher than the state average and twenty percent more than the Winooski teachers. Though Colchester’s starting pay was the second lowest in the county, the pay in Colchester is so good that few teachers leave. Therefore, the average pay for Colchester teachers is not close to the lowest. MONEY DOES NOT TALK Even with their lies, they gained zero public support. The VT NEA has now set a goal to raise starting teacher's pay to $40,000. They say that higher pay is critical to attract high-quality teachers. First, there are few entry jobs available. Second, some teachers leave public school teaching for lower paid private school work. Go figure. Lastly, if there was a major teacher evacuation, we bet that there are many willing and able to fill those jobs. Ask any administrator how many resumes he/she receive for an teacher opening? Dozens. At the same time, responding to a question about merit pay for teachers, VTNEA President Angela Dorta in a strange dichotomy said, "There is no data that improving teacher compensation leads to improved student achievement." Wow!
WHERE DID ALL THE CHILDREN GO? As Governor Douglas pointed out to DPR, in ten years the student population is going to decrease eighteen percent. The Free Press surveyed the towns of Chittenden County. In 1980 sixty-one percent of Jericho’s homes had children at home, in 2000 only forty-six percent did. In Milton fifty-nine percent had children at home in 1980 and in 2000 only forty-two percent. In Winooski children at home fell 35 percent. The numbers in 2005 must be even lower than in 2000, in spite of older children staying at home because of the lack of affordable housing. Enrollments are declining, precipitously. Yet unbelievably, the number of educators in public schools has increased substantially. Wages have increased, benefit costs too. The State of Vermont has not paid the required pension monies into the Teacher Retirement Fund. A looming train wreck, but who dares take on the education lobby, the third rail of Vermont politics? POLITICS TO THE RESCUE According to our sources, Governor Douglas will take on the teachers, head on. The governor has win/lose choice: unsustainable education costs or unsustainable health care. Which one can he win? Health care is a loser for Douglas and the Republicans. Who can be against universal access and lower costs? Right, nobody. That it is unaffordable is irrelevant; the Democrats and their cheerleaders in the media will spin their program as the right thing to do. On the other hand who can be against a fifteen percent reduction in your property taxes? Right, nobody. But whose ox is gored? Vermont’s overstaffed schools and overpaid teachers. Douglas's strategy puts the Democrats in a quandary. Much of their success and thus effort for the past twenty years since the Democrat legislative era began is to take care of their own, the Vermont NEA's needs at the top of the list. CRASH COURSE For Douglas to succeed he must take on the teachers and their union. Will the Democrats protect the teachers or the taxpayers? If the NEA gets its way in South Burlington, the top-tier teachers will earn $81,415 in the last year of their contract. Not bad for 190 days of work in a job with no risk of layoff or defenestration, with full benefits, long holidays, professional development, sick days, personal days, and nice workplace environment. Douglas is betting that the Democrats will dish the taxpayers and support their ideology, universal health care. Douglas is betting that the public will support him. He is betting that his plan will help recruit and elect legislative Republicans. TEAMWORK The Governor has found that governing without either legislative body in his corner is no fun and not successful. The Republicans in the legislature have found that running for office without a coordinated message with the governor is no fun and not successful. The Governor is committed to a plan that will become the Republican Plan, not just his plan. He will recruit the candidates. He will coordinate the message. He will deliver the message. He will raise the money. He will ask the overtaxed for support. He is betting that money talks.
THE QUEEN CITY The wheels are coming off America's second most happy city, so nominated by Self magazine. The rats are leaving the ship and that includes Mayor Clavelle. No wonder he wanted to be governor. He saw the birds coming home to roost. Socialist turned progressive turned Democrat (now where have we heard that before) Clavelle admits that maybe Burlington’s pension plan commitment in 2000 was a bit more generous that Burlington could afford. Felt good at the time, but now unsustainable. Slow in math, those Socialists-Progressives-Democrats are long on feelings and compassion, but who is going to pay the bill is not something that we should worry about. Let us do the right thing! The current debate pits good time feelings against rage. The city loves its employees, has hundreds of them, and wanted them to live happily ever after. The city agreed to a very expensive pension commitment. Not being able to fund it without wrenching millions more from an overtaxed citizen, they stiffed their employees by well over $5,000,000. Whoops. Mayor Clavelle, having been denied permission to leave the island by the voters last November, threw in the towel citing a commitment to family and sanity. Former Representative Karen Lafayette, mayor wannabee, threw in the towel citing a commitment to lobbying. Representative John Tracy, mayor wannabe, threw in the towel citing a commitment to universal health care.
WITHER GOEST VERMONT COLLEGES Stephen Klein, chief legislative fiscal officer, released a study on the Vermont College system’s financial health. "What you have been living on is your tuition increases but as you run into a declining market where you have fewer kids, you have a potential issue." The Times Argus reported, "Expenses like faculty salaries and benefits could soon outpace revenues." Klein told DPR, "In the end the state college system is unsustainable." Just consider retirement with health care at 55 after only 15 years of teaching. Not bad. There are many years between 55 and heavenly rest. And a few illnesses too. Klein concluded, "Sooner or later you are going to have to pay those bills." Go to: http://www.leg.state.vt.us/jfo/default.htm THE GRAND TOTAL The Vermont College system is unsustainable, public education is unsustainable, Medicaid is unsustainable, health care is unsustainable, pension commitment is unsustainable, and highways and bridges have been unsustained and thus are financially unsustainable. And this is with unemployment at a low and relatively inexpensive 3.9 percent. FOCUSED YET? Anything coming into focus yet? Do you understand where the governor is coming from, promising a cut of 15% in your property taxes? Who will win? Health care for all or reduce your property taxes? Thousands have already decamped for Florida, the Carolinas, and other points south and east. Will the trickle turn into a torrent? * * *
*** MEDIA NOTES *** MEDIA GIVES ITSELF A FREE PASS The Copans faux pas has had the political junkies giggling. Democrat Executive Director Jon Copans did not do his homework before lambasting the Governor for corruption. A case of mistaken identity. The source appears to have been Charles "Tuck" Rainwater, Vermont Law School graduate, Democrat rising star, and campaign manager for Scudder Parker. Rainwater also did not do his homework. Grade inflation at work? Nonetheless, editorials and columns beat young Jon like a drum for his error. Left totally unmentioned was the press corps which took Copans error and ran with it without so much of a Google to check its accuracy. No fact checkers maybe? As bureau chief Chris Graff said, "You cannot spell cheap without AP." Shame on them. Douglas may have many faults, but a corruption charge should not pass anybody's smell test, let alone the Associated Press office in Montpelier.
THE DEMOCRAT SWEEP This week the national media crowed, "We have them on the run. The House and Senate are ours." Why? The Democrats won the governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey. Lud Flower, Chair of Grafton County GOP in New Hampshire, said, "What's the big deal? Two Democrats being replaced by two Democrats."
THE STORY THAT WASN'T Scudder Parker has announced for the Democrat nomination for governor. Jim Douglas said that it seemed a bit early to announce. The truth-tellers in the press immediately set out to discredit Douglas, itemizing with power point bullets his own political activity in the year before the election. Ah yes, but he did not announce until May of the election year. Candidates have to raise money, organize, seek endorsements and so forth. This was not news. Mr. Parker said one of his issues was to improve the condition of our roads and bridges, actually in a deplorable state. The news hounds could have responded to this gambit by reporting on how we got this way, how during the previous seventeen years of Democrat leadership money raised for bridges and roads was purloined from the Transportation Fund to further their social agenda. But no, for them, Douglas is the issue.
THE ROOKIE VERSUS THE CAPTAIN Darren Allen of the Vermont Press Bureau wrote: "The Douglas summit is an exercise in selective listening. It is hard to have any realistic expectations for Governor James Douglas's health care summit. "Some observers thought that they had detected a bit of a détente in his animosity towards the approach advocated by Democrat lawmakers; any hope that this summit would be a true exchange of ideas surrounding the decade's most vexing questions has all but faded. "Continuing an apparent rant against what he acerbically called 'big labor' at the end of the legislative session, Douglas saw fit to exclude working men and women and the organizations that represent them from the (summit)... By leaving out the Vermont State Employees Association and the Vermont-NEA, the governor essentially, if not directly, told a whole swath of public sector employees that their views were not important." REBUTTAL That both the teachers union and the state employee union said early on in the health care debate that they were not players did not dawn on Allen. He seems to have forgotten that they said, "Good luck with universal health care but we like what we have thank you very much, hands off." Chris Graff said on Wake up Vermont on WDEV, "We are seeing now a more genuine effort on the part of the governor and the Democrats to try to find common ground in the health care debate. "So this health care summit I think is going to be critically important in really to get a better sense on what is truly expectable in the coming year." So there.
LIVE BY THE SWORD Judith Miller, jailbird, is not welcome back to the New York Times. The Times spent millions in her defense. Scooter Libby resigned as his memory was no better than Ms. Miller's, who actually took notes.
*** THE ROAR OF THE CROWD: EMAIL *** NOTE ABOUT LETTERS »» From Your Editor: Because of a computer glitch, DPR failed to receive your email responding to the past three issues... Until just this week when a flood of your email appeared. We apologize for the delay in presenting you valued feedback.
AGING POPULATION? PLANT SHAMROCKS! »» Senator Wendy Wilton, Rutland: Your coverage of the demographic issue is right on -— and Vermont is truly becoming a "Europe" due to low birth rate and aging population. How did we get here? Easy -- 30 years of largely anti-business state policies that continues to drive our jobs and youth out of state, and our health care costs out of sight. The solution? Become the Ireland of the US. Ireland is now the wealthiest nation in Europe, and the best educated because they grappled with the age and economic problem in a very straightforward way to stop the "brain drain" (loss of young workers to other countries) and create real economic opportunity by welcoming investment. * * * AGING POPULATION? LURE YOUTH »» Jill R. McDermott, Montpelier: Perhaps one way to keep our college bound youth in our State, would be to fatten up the VSAC/UVM allocation in order to reduce tuition for in state students. Champlain College and Vermont Technical College do an extremely good job of graduating kids with jobs already lined up. Perhaps the other schools could learn from them. Another idea would be for all of Vermont's colleges to have a "Keep Vermont College Kids in Vermont Summit." With all the brainiacs at all of these schools they should be able to come up with some wonderful ideas to keep our kids from going out of state to attend college.
*** THE US SENATE RACE *** »» Ken Squier, WDEV Radio, Waterbury: I hope Richie reads your lead. If he doesn't follow your outline. He's sunk * * * TARRANT'S EXPENSIVE CONFLICT OF INTERESTS »» Steven Ciardelli, Burlington: Your piece didn't point it out, but to just enter the primary, Ritchie Tarrant must pay a huge ante to the State. If I'm not mistaken, when the sale of IDX goes through and he gets a check in 2006, he will be liable for a huge capital gains federal tax, a percentage of that will be an additional Vermont Tax. It should end up being a multi million state tax liability. This could be avoided if he changed residency to Florida where he maintains a home. The net is he has to pay a huge tax just to enter the primary. I would change residency and buy a nice boat with the money the tax department will collect..... * * * I LIKE SHEPARD »» Rob Mazza, Colchester: I think that all Vermonters should take a good look at Senator Mark Shepard (R-Bennington). I have spent time talking with him about issue's that mean a lot to me, Health care, Education, Property rights, Hunting and Fishing, and I have found him to be a stand up guy. He favors a responsible timber program to improve habitat for Wildlife, and favors no more Wilderness, until we manage the lands we already have in Wilderness areas. He favors ATV trails to give Vermonters a place to ride legally and to enjoy the outdoors. Mr. Tarrant should re think his run for the United States Senate; money cannot buy a seat -- remember Skip Vallee. Vote for someone who will stand by his convictions, and who will represent all Vermonters. * * * REMEMBER, THEY DON'T PLAY FAIR »» James Gregoire, Fairfield: The senate campaign is going better than ever before? Didn't we hear that last election cycle too? I hope that this time it is for real. The Democrats will bring their "A" game and will fight as dirty as need be to keep their majority if not expand it. Is the GOP ready to go toe to toe? We can't continue to let them pound our candidates with impunity while giving them a free pass on their positions and votes. [We have to put a stop to the other side]...using unethical tactics such as stealing signs (when only specific candidates signs are missing it isn't just kids), strong-arming business with GOP signs to put up democrats' signs so as not to "offend" and therefore "lose" customers, prowling nursing homes and "helping" to fill out absentee ballots, and telling gullable voters that they can't bullet vote when said voter says they are only voting for the republican candidate in a 3 way race in a 2 member district among many others. There has to be a way to beat them. * * * ERRATUM »» Tim Lennon, South Burlington: While I always enjoy your column, and give you great deference to your personal interpretation of Rich's positions and record for helping Conservative causes. However your reference to Deb Tarrant as Rich's assistant is inaccurate, and really out of line. She never worked for Rich or IDX.
TAXED OUT OF COLCHESTER »» Russell Spreeman, La Porte, IN (formerly of Colchester): Just a few brief comments on recent letters regarding the teacher strike in Colchester: One person wrote that the taxpayers of Colchester need to be educated that their taxes are fair - this from a woman who gets an 'amazing' tax refund. Take away that refund and educate her about that -- think she'd understand? One person wrote that they left a computer industry job to be a teacher and had to work "twice as hard for half the pay." As someone who works in the computer industry, I find this to be hilarious. As a rule, it's IT workers, not teachers, who suffer from burnout and early death from stress - and for far less than "twice the pay". What an insult. One person wrote that she had only earned $25,000 teaching art, despite a Master's degree. If money was an issue, she should have had the foresight to get her degree in Science or Engineering or Accounting - even if those fields are "somewhat" harder than teaching art to kids. The "Let them eat cake" which the teachers toss at the taxpayers is reprehensible. Maybe they need the money so they can send their kids to private schools for a better education...?
A HURRICANE OF BAD PRESS »» Jack McMullen, Burlington: Thank you for your articulate (and witty) summary of the 24/7 Bush bash fest occasioned by Hurricane Katrina. As the weeks unfold, two things have become apparent. The blatant media bias against the president and the incompetence and pettiness of Louisiana's two most relevant elected officials: Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin. Compare their behavior and lack of effectiveness with that of Governor Barbour of Mississippi, a state even more devastated by Katrina than Louisiana. He has been lauded by those on the ground for his quiet professionalism and effectiveness -- and for reaching out to political adversaries to help. The only regret the media seems to have had in turning its attention to blaming Bush for everything related to Katrina is that it pushed their grotesquely distorted coverage of the Iraq war off the front page.
GOVERNOR COMPORTS HIMSELF WELL »» Kevin Forrest: It was interesting to attend the governor's health care forum in Springfield. Almost everyone who spoke favored universal health care. A couple of people expressed concern about such a plan, but not one person spoke in favor of the governor's plan. To his credit, the governor comported himself well in the face of some withering criticism. He also seemed genuinely interested in the alleged private sector-inducted tales of woe, many from health professionals. Although as we all know, the problem is pretty well defined. It's the solution that remains elusive. The forum was not as well attended as the previous two. Also, Springfield is a low-income area and there were many there from liberal Brattleboro. But no matter how you spin it, that hearing delivered a pretty clear message. Hope you get to cover some of the hearings.
THAT CELL TOWER BUSINESS »» Laura Brueckner, Waterbury Center: When a church installs a cell tower in direct competition with, say, a farm silo does the church lose its charity status and start paying taxes since cell towers are not directly related to religious functions? How much does the church get per month? Thousands if they negotiated well. Editor's note: The Verizon lease is $18,000 per year.
THEY LIKE US »» Grant Lester Corwin II, South Royalton: Believing I have not said so to you publicly yet: Welcome back to the USA. Thank you for continuing to inform us in many areas BETTER than the mainstream media. I am particularly impressed this week [10/10/05] with your reportage on the similarities between Mr. Socialist Sanders and Mr. Successful Tarrant. Count me early on Brian Dubie's side. »» Ed Wilson, Morrisville: DPR always screws up my morning schedule because when I see it I HAVE to read it -- then digest it -- then calm down...and I enjoy that exercise. Keep up the great work! »» Michael Seely, Dorset: The Las Vegas item about [the union outsourcing its picketing to non-union workers - 09/25/05] was priceless. I'm reading it awaiting my doctor to arrive at Sloan Kettering--perfect antidote to the inevitable anxiety associated with these check-ups. * *
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*** QUOTABLE *** THE WORLD IS FLAT "Students know that the earth is finished, done, over. Not today or tomorrow, but soon. We have done so much damage that it is really done." --John O'Brien, Tunbridge Filmmaker, Mark Johnson Show, October 11, 2005
OXYMORONIC "We knew that the Colchester School Board was not serious about negotiation when at our first meeting they had a professional at the table." --Michael Long, Chief Negotiator for the Colchester Education Association, Mark Johnson Show, October 11, 2005
THE REAL WORLD "Limited government does not mean indifferent government." --The Economist, September 10, 2005
SOME THINGS DON'T CHANGE To escape the burden of Democrat government, Noah Webster said in 1829, "I am even willing to move to Vermont to be freed of our 'democracy.' As to the cold winters, I would, if necessary, become a troglodyte and live in a cave." --The New Yorker, October 24, 2005
DEVELOPMENT EXPERTISE "Vermont's boards and commissions are filled with wealthy jerks from New York and New Jersey. I have had it with Vermont. I am so happy that I no longer own anything in Vermont. I was not allowed to do anything. Act 250 commissioners are power trip morons. What do they want? No jobs, no business, and sprawl? That is what they are getting." --Duncan Mackintosh, Hanover, NH
LET'S SAVE THE WORLD "In her new documentary, Madonna renounces the material world saying that we are enslaved by it and that it will ultimately be our undoing. Madonna made this statement from her mansion." --Jay Leno
GO TELL IT TO THE DEMOCRAT LEGISLATURE "I have to tell the people, to convince them, that there is a relation between earning money and spending money, that all other values, solidarity, justice, the social network, are safe only if our economy does better and that there is growth." --Angela Merke, German candidate for chancellor, The New Yorker, September 19, 2005
THAT DOES IT! "The wailing! The gnashing! The rending of garments! If the conservative reaction to Harriet Miers is any indication, George W. Bush has no chance of winning a third term." --James Lileks http://www.jewishworldreview.com/1005/lileks.php3
ACADEMICS ARE OUTRAGED "...a federal law has been passed saying that colleges and universities that forbid military recruiters from coming on campus are no longer eligible to receive federal money. Academics are outraged. They see this law as a violation of their freedom -- including their right to violate their students' freedom. It is classic spoiled brat politics, based on the idea that what I want overrides what you want." ---Thomas Sowell, http://www.townhall.com/opinion/columns/thomassowell/2005/10/13/171103.html See also: http://thevaticanofliberalism.com/archives/000566.php
GIFT IDEA "The Luce Policy Institute's 2006 Great American Conservative Women Calendar is now available! Don't miss your chance to receive this one-of-a-kind calendar featuring outstanding women leaders like Ann Coulter, Michelle Malkin, Kellyanne Conway, Clare Boothe Luce, Shemane Nugent, Monica Crowley and many more." http://www.townhall.com/phrd.html?loc=http://www.cblpi.org/ * *
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