MEA CULPA

What a tough crowd. E-mails, taunts, rages, and gales of laughter. Our predictions, accurate in all but one race, have brought shame and scandal on the family. And for the first time in the long history of our conversation, the last issue of DPR lost money. That it was witty, wise, and wonderful did not overcome that fact that it was wrong. That the many pages following the prediction demonstrated why Kerry could not win strangely did not persuade us.

We apologize to all far and near but mostly to the American people who have more wisdom in their pinkie that we have in heads. As the old Dartmouth College song goes, “And the granite of New Hampshire in their muscles and their brains.” We shall wear the red K upon our breast all the days of our lives.

Really though, perhaps the nakedness caused by the Red Sox’s removing the loser self-image drove us to protection once again and quickly with the false comfort of thinking of our losing the presidential race. Help! Does anyone know Dr. Freud’s number?

HOPE IS THE TOOL OF THE DEVIL

Peter Clavelle and his family ran on hope, and hope made them all the poorer. Putting family money up to purchase television ads showing Jim Douglas and Dick Cheney in a warm embrace did not reward Peter. Peter Martin at WCAX, yes, but not Peter Clavelle. The futility of Clavelle’s strategy was apparent when Bush beat Peter in Vermont by 2,593 votes.

TWO MORE YEARS

Jim Douglas won fifty-nine percent of the vote, easily surpassing his result in 2002 and beating Howard Dean’s percentage in 2000 and 1998 by over fifteen percent. Saddled with a very liberal house and senate in both leadership and makeup, Douglas will not be looking for any great legislative victories, but negotiating for non-punitive legislation, non-business emasculation legislation, and health care reform. He will, however, move and motivate the agencies with more political power.

THE CAPTAIN IN THE HAT

Brian Dubie won huge also. All the chatter about how Cheryl Rivers had closed the gap must have been referring to an unannounced snowfall in the Appalachian Gap. A twenty point victory removed the spoiler tag from Progressive Steve Hingtgen. The Progressive Party could have supported him with all their heart but instead abandoned their party and values. Rivers who championed Vermont’s public financing, ran from it when the chips were down, as did Howard Dean. She compromised her values and lost anyway.

PRAYER ANSWERED

We wrote last summer that the major Democrat players were all too happy to have Rivers, Ready, and Clavelle self-destruct, removing themselves from any further statewide ambitions. This was all too clear when the Democrat hordes at the Wyndham Hotel in our queen city barely listened to Rivers’ concession speech. So alarmed was Ready that she never was ready to take the podium to concede the race to Randy Brock. Who cares, more bad form from Ready. Brock is rumored to be sharpening the axe to begin his term with a major overhaul at the auditor’s office with a daring strategy of actually hiring auditors for the first time in a decade.

THE NON POLITICAN

This week Douglas made his chief justice of Supreme Court decision known at his weekly press conference. He appointed once again the fellow he chose as a justice just a year ago, Justice Paul Reiber. Asked about his political views, Reiber allowed that before he interviewed with the Governor, he had never met him. This is hard to believe in that Jim Douglas seems to know almost everyone in Vermont. The self effacing nominee quietly left the press conference when his part was over, breaking tradition of not leaving until the governor was finished. He probably had better things to do and went off and did them.

Reiber, if confirmed, will have over $25,000,000 to manage annually as well as his own court to sustain. Having been the managing partner of the Rutland law firm of Reiber, Kenlan, Schwiebert and Facey, a firm with over thirty employees, he knows something about herding cats.

WAS THERE SOMETHING IN THE WATER?

The Stowe Reporter reported the outcome of all races in all the surrounding towns. One result stood out among the others. The presidential race in Wolcott: Kerry 473, Bush 24.

VERMONT 1, FEDS 0

Vermont seemed to win the first tussle with the feds over drugs. Douglas announced that the federal government will hold Vermont harmless regarding Vermont pharmacy benefit programs.

Next hopefully is the removal of federal ban on re-importation of prescription drugs from Canada. The feds claim that they are protecting us from Canadian drugs which may not be up to our standards. However our “standards” have taken quite a beating lately with both Vioxx and Celebrex causing heart and stomach problems. This information derived from testing has been available to the drugs companies for years but unreleased. Upon release the drug companies’ shares “plunged.”

THE SUNSHINE STATE BECKONED

Perhaps it was the chance to windsurf or work on his tan. Whatever. Kerry’s trips to Florida over the final ten days seem in retrospect a fool’s errand. Polling error of five points? They forgot that Jeb Bush was governor? They forgot that they needed only one or the other, Ohio or Florida, not both. Greedy? Who knows?

In the October 30th issue of the National Journal, William Schneider wrote, “If you want to spend the last week of this campaign at political ground zero, buy yourself a ticket to Ohio. This election may all come down to the Buckeye State.”

THE FOX GUARDS THE HENHOUSE

It may have been the Clintonistas. Their first priority is Hillary. They descended on the Kerry campaign in the last days of summer when Kerry careened from a seven point lead to a twelve point deficit. Kerry, without their help, righted himself in the debates. Then, when it mattered, they moved him from Ohio to fighting a losing battle in Florida.

THE BILLIONAIRES

Bush spent the last 6 days in Ohio including Election Day, making some GOTV calls himself. Bush had a great GOTV (get out the vote) effort. As chronicled in the last issue, letters from the old country were not a good idea, at least for helping Kerry. Maybe they sold papers. The London based Guardian purchased the voter list from Clark County, Ohio. In 2000 the county went for Gore, in 2004 it went for Bush. Thanks Limies.

Kerry, to borrow a term, outsourced his GOTV to George Soros and the billionaires and as with the Deaniacs in Iowa, success was not within reach. Though lighter in their pockets, it is nice to know that Soros and his cronies could not buy an election. They had over 30,000 paid “volunteers” in Ohio alone. Bush’s volunteers were both real and effective.

Those paid folks registered Mary Poppins and Dick Tracy. In Colorado they allegedly traded crack for voter registrations. Cool.

WORST TRADE OF THE CENTURY

No it was not the Babe going to New York for cash. It was the Democrats short shrifting African Americans and the working class for the Trial Lawyers. Yes, they received lots of cash but lost their foot soldiers and truth tellers. With the GOP winning everything by the widest margins in more than a half a century, the Democrat Party is no more. Where do they go from here? They might start by reading the reviled Senator Zell Miller’s book, A National Party No More.

YOU CAN’T GET THERE FROM HERE

The trail of tears from Vermont and New England to the West Coast cannot be taken. Gotta take a plane as you cannot get there from here without crossing the red zone. Why? Hand wringing is going on: we need to focus on morals and values, we need to ditch the Hollywood crowd, we need to work harder, etc.

We wrote in the summer how the Democrats' use of Glenn Close at their convention was a bad idea. It is not that she scares every man who ever saw Fatal Attraction. It is that she does not connect in any red state. In fact she disconnects. NEA’s dancing badly to rock and roll does not trump the two step. Why can't they figure this out?

WHY CAN’T YOU GET IT?

Democrat Mark McKinnon who was Bush’s media advisor in his gubernatorial and presidential races said, speaking to a New York Times reporter, “You think he is an idiot, all of you, up and down the West and East Coast. Let me clue you in. We don't care. You are outnumbered two to one in the big, wide Middle America, busy working people who do not read the New York Times, the Washington Post or the L.A. Times. They like the way he walks, the way he talks, the way he exudes confidence. They have faith in him. And when you attack his malaprops, it is good for us. Because you know what these folks do not like? They do not like you!”

Mostly they need a candidate who is not a totally phony. But assuming that they have that, they have no foot soldiers. The unions are a shadow of their former selves, the teachers are teaching, Hollywood is preaching, and the trial lawyers don't lick envelopes and man phone banks. They rob banks. The Dems have the money, but they have not enough active members.

LES ESTADOS UNIDOS

We are not so sure. Look at the electoral map. See anything scary? Except for California, Hawaii, and Maryland, every blue state is north of the Mason Dixon line. Only seven score and four years later and the country is divided again. The Civil War redux, this time the North lost.

Look again and see the Asian sub-continent of days gone by. Recall West and East Pakistan (before the latter rebelled and became Bangladesh) with India filling the gap in between. There is the red swath from the Gulf Coast and Mexico to Canada.

We will not of course go our separate ways because of the one thing Europe has a hard time understanding; the basic decency and patriotism of Americans.

WITHER THE DONKEY PARTY

Barrels of ink have already been wasted on what happened, what is wrong with the Democrats. If only we could turn out the youth vote we win. Well, we did turn them out in record numbers but no greater than the increase in the overall turnout, and Bush almost took their vote.

Undecided voters will break against the incumbent. Whoops, not this time, they went two-to-one to Bush. Get the women out, they'll support Kerry. Yes, but only by less than four percent.

HUG THE MIDDLE

 The Kerry folks thought that if they could move to the middle they would be embraced. But alas not many are left in the middle. Thousands of believers waited for the call, waited to be told what we stand for. They waited in vain. Kerry had plans, don't know what they were but he had plans for everything. Everything was like Bush, just better. Duh. You call this a message?

Damn, folks, stand for something. Dean had the idea in February, 2003 speaking to the Democrat meeting in Washington. The war is wrong, Bush tax cuts are wrong, health care for all is a right; I represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. Then with the lead and after being Gore’d, Dean went fuzzy and the party selected a flawed candidate without a message. Hasta la vista, baby.

MISPLACED HOPES

Waldo as head of the Democrat National Committee? Now there is a joke. The job requires patience, tact, and an even handed approach. Does any of that sound like the Screamer you know and love? It requires fund raising with a sophisticated touch with the high donors. Howard Dean is not the man.

HE TRIPS ON HIS TONGUE, AGAIN

Dean was widely quoted the day after the election, “More Americans voted against George Bush than any sitting president in history.” Clever but wrong again. Back in 1992 if you combine the votes for Clinton and Perot, ten million more people voted against father than son.

HELP MAY BE ON THE WAY

The Europeans have not been in our corner regarding Iraq, at least Old Europe. Change may be on the way. Perhaps you have noticed that war has broken out in the Netherlands.

Harvard Professor Samuel Huntington in the summer of 1993 penned an article for “Foreign Affairs” entitled, the Clash of Civilizations. Huntington followed that up with a book by the same name in 1996. His premise is that the conflicts of the future would be between civilizations and cultures, not countries.

He broke the world into nine cultures: Western, Latin American, African, Islamic, Sinic, Hindu, Orthodox, Buddhist, and Japanese. In the current instance, it has been the United States and the United Kingdom versus Islam. The other “Western countries”, Canada and Europe, have not participated. The events in the Netherlands might cause some re-evaluation of their position.

JUST THE FACTS M’AM

The facts. In Amsterdam, Dutch filmmaker, Theo van Gogh, made a ten minute film with the help of Ayaan Hirsi Ali, a member of parliament, about the plight of Muslim women in the Netherlands. Riding his bicycle, he was set upon but a young Muslim immigrant who emptied a magazine of bullets into van Gogh before knifing him and stabbing a message into his body.

The message mentioned that parliamentarian Ali best watch her backside and that Amsterdam should not be governed by a dirty Jew Mayor. Any of this familiar?

Then a Muslim school had its front door blown off at night, followed by the burning of a few Christian churches, followed by the burning of a Muslim school, etc. You get the picture, a clash of civilizations.

EXCUSE ME

Amsterdam prides itself on being the most open, liberal, tolerant city in the world. Gay marriage, open markets on drugs, public urination, semi public fornication, and so forth. Your editor visited last May. It seemed, though all this liberalism was apparent, it was also apparent that the citizens were choking on it, hated it, and pined for the old days.

Your editor proceeded on to Denmark where the government recognized the growing problem of uncontrolled immigration and put in controls. As we previously reported, the most popular first name for Dutch boys for the last four years has been Mohamed. Denmark is liberal yes but not stupid. The Economist reports, “To many Dutch people, the idea of building a multicultural society has failed.”

HOME ON THE RANGE

Yup, mister, we folks out here sure are stupid, uncultured rednecks. But we are ‘Mericans. And we know it. How could a bunch of stupid uncultured and uncouth Americans get it right and build a multicultural society when you sophisticated Europeans gotta ban head scarves and skull caps? Waves of immigrants poured into our country, first from Northern Europe then from Ireland, Southern Europe, Asia, and Latin America plus the slaves from Africa freed one hundred and forty-one years ago. More of a mix than in the Netherlands.

Here we are with a Latin American Attorney General, an African American Secretary of State, an African Senator, a Georgian military Chif of Staff, and two Jewish Supreme Court Justices. And we sleep at night without our film-makers slaughtered or our schools blown up. Maybe these folks will begin to understand that they need to take a stand. Probably not until the Eiffel Tower tumbles into the Seine.

A GREAT NEW READ! IMPORTANT FOR TODAY'S WORLD!

We hear a lot about Vietnam these days -- the medals, the Swift Boats, and the “lessons” and “tragedy” of that “quagmire.” But nobody talks about the real lessons, the real tragedy. In Keith’s People, you'll get the facts. You’ll also get a humdinger of a thriller, set partly in New York City, partly in Vermont. The book has already won great praise:

** A remarkable literary feat. Written with verve, dry humor, excellent characterization, and political savvy, this murder mystery is, simultaneously, a searing indictment of Ho Chi Minh’s Vietnam and the brutal police state that is his legacy.” Erika Holzer, author of Eye for an Eye (a Paramount film); co-author of “Aid and Comfort”: Jane Fonda in North Vietnam

** Original and inventive. It delivers clever plotting, a surprise ending, and a devastating blow to political correctness.” Joshua Muravchik, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; author most recently of Heaven on Earth: The Rise and Fall of Socialism

** Riveting and gripping. A great suspense story combined with a broad consideration of the political currents that divided America in the aftermath of the Vietnam war, currents that echo to the America of this very day and time.” Ronald Radosh, co-author of The Rosenberg File; author of Commies: A Journey Through the Old Left, the New Left and the Leftover Left

** A great read, and a welcome pertinence to our current war on terrorism. Military Magazine

Refresh yourself on why we were really in Vietnam, what happened there after we abandoned a war we had substantially won, and why we must oppose anyone arguing that we do the same in Iraq: wimp out and leave.

Order the important and highly readable Keith’s People direct from the author. Send your check for only $12.95 (regularly $19.95) to Ellen Perry Berkeley, Box 311, Shaftsbury, Vermont 05262. Ask for an autograph and a personalized inscription. And enjoy a mystery that has real substance from the extensive research by this award-winning writer, and from her imaginative creation of engaging characters that bring the facts to life. (Warning: If you thought Hanoi Jane was the greatest, don't buy this book!)

BUSH DOES NOT READ THE HERALD

Hello? Earth to the Rutland Herald/Times Argus. We pleaded in the last issue for you folks to behave a bit more responsibly. Day after day, the editorials blasted Bush. Okay you like Kerry. But now, Bush has won. Makes no difference, blast Bush. Do you think Bush cares or that Bush reads your tripe? Getta grip.

There are many problems in Vermont which, with a bit of research and a bit of attention, might benefit from your helping hand. And a few local folks might care. Knock off Bush for a while. Please.

STRAIGHTAPHOBES

If it is not another Bush bash at the Herald/Times Argus, it is a reminder of days of yore when they waxed serenely to a Pulitzer Prize on the wings of gay love and commitment. “Baker and Bush” blamed Kerry’s loss on the eleven amendments prohibiting gay marriage which all passed in states from Michigan to Oregon. Whoops, we forgot that Kerry won those states, sorry. That did not deter Mr. Margolis of the Free Press writers’ group from joining the Herald in bashing those gay bashers and blaming them for Bush.

They of course had no supportable data to justify their conclusion. Curiously the New York Times came to a different conclusion. David Brooks wrote, “Bush did not gain significantly in the eleven states with gay marriage referendums.

“It is ridiculous to say, as some liberals have this week, that we are perpetually re-fighting the Scopes trial, with the metro forces of enlightenment and reason arrayed against the retro forces of dogma and reaction...some liberal reaction reminds me of the rage of the drowning man.”

SLOW LEARNERS

The count had yet to end on the 2004 election and already there were a spat of articles about the 2008 election. As if that was not enough, the Bush haters in the press have drummed up the new tipping point, judicial nominees. Each day another article.

The headlines are the most astonishing. From the Free Press, “Bush Victory might ease Rehnquist’s decision to leave.” The Herald/Times Argus did no better, “Rehnquist now more likely to step aside.” Are these headline writers just plain nuts or totally uniformed?

RETIRING TO GREENSBORO

Rehnquist is now “more likely to step” aside than he was during the first term? Huh? Nothing has changed, or didn't they notice: Bush was and still is president. Or the “victory might ease the decision.” It was harder when Bush was president in his first term for Rehnquist to make a decision than when Bush is president in his second term? Of course underlying both headlines is the bias that Rehnquist is not a jurist, is not a patriot, is not fair minded, and is basically a right wing nut case.

Perhaps the headline writers did not read about the form of cancer Rehnquist has. Even with treatment, prognosis is that death almost always comes within a year. Bush’s reelection has in fact absolutely no influence on Rehnquist’s decision. You could argue with some credibility that Rehnquist, a closet Democrat, did not resign during Bush’s first term to give the Democrats a chance to nominate his replacement.

Also recall in this whole debate that expected judiciary committee chair, liberal Republican Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, only narrowly won his primary race against a conservative challenger Representative Pat Toomey because President Bush repeatedly campaigned for Specter. He won by only 17,146 votes out of 1,047,532. He owes his seat to the President.

AVANT MOI, RIEN

Darren Allen of the Vermont Press Bureau did a bit of work for a Vermont journalist. Usually the crowd wanders into press conferences, hearings, and legislative activities and reports. But to motivate them to dig, do research, and investigate, that either is too much work, too hard, or the boss does not give them the time, requiring that they produce daily.

Darren wrote a series of in depth articles on the major issues facing Vermonters and their government. Kudos. That said, he tends to disregard what came before his arrival. He writes of our election for governor, “For the second straight cycle, the candidates for Vermont Governor collectively spent more than $1,000,000.” That would be the third. The Dean Dwyer in 2000 rematch went over $1,600,000.

THE MYSTERY SOLVED

The Herald/Time Argus added a funky Sunday column, Position Papers. And gee, they even mentioned our sabbatical. A few weeks back the headline read, “Swing through non-swing state by Elizabeth Edwards a mystery.”

Let’s see if we can solve this mystery for the expert pundits of the Vermont Press Bureau. Did Bush/Kerry advertise on any Burlington television station? Well, yes. And how much did the two campaigns spend with just WCAX? Well, over $1,500,000.

Gotta clue yet? Oh, right, Burlington is a media market for the battleground state of New Hampshire, in which at the end Kerry just eked out a victory. Now does Mrs. Edwards journey to Burlington makes sense?

CAN’T TAKE A PUNCH

The networks, still reeling from their miscalling Florida in 2000, could not pull the trigger on any Republican state. Well Vermont, right. And recall their word, “We project Vermont for Kerry.” It ain't the actual votes folks. Look at the record.

New Hampshire was 50/49 Kerry and they projected Kerry. Wisconsin was 50/49 Kerry and they projected Kerry. But Florida was 52/47 Bush and it was “too close to call.” Baloney. Same with Ohio was 51/49 Bush and CNN still had not called it twenty hours after Kerry conceded. Both Iowa and New Mexico was 50/49 Bush and they could not pull the trigger. Biased, hopeful, prayerful (finally), or just nervous Nellie’s? You choose. We called it at 10:30 PM election day and went to bed.

Both our major dailies used sixty four point type to say, “Too close to call.” What they did not add was too close for them to call. It perhaps struck them as incredible that the GOP could sweep. Kerry even lost the Gore advantage of winning the popular vote. In fact, Bush’s victory was the first time in sixteen years that any candidate for president received more than fifty percent of the popular vote.

GARLIC JOHN’S

It was a miserable night; rain and sleet. Driving home from Bennington, your editor stopped at Garlic John’s in Manchester for a quick dinner. The place was mobbed, 1980 pricing was back for four days.

A seat was free at the bar. The pasta was hot and spicy. The neighboring conversation turned to politics and their local newspaper, the Russian Herald, aka Izvestia. “The only way to learn the truth is reading this online newsletter.” Could they have been talking about us? Maybe; how flattering.

OUR ELECTION PREDICTIONS

»» Sean McKeon: The Bush prediction is far off... He will win by between 4-6 points, and his victory will be clear and convincing.

»» Pete Chagnon, Burlinton: Per your predictions.... SCREW YOU. You are dead wrong... I just thought I would shake you up a bit with that prediction being so far off about Bush. It shows you can't trust the media or it's flunkies, plus it's easy to predict races in this state. They're all left wing. Douglas won because Clavelle is actually a stupid person, overall, and Douglas is more democrat than republican. Dubie won because Rivers is not a very likable person and Ready was on the way out to begin with because she is basically an incompetent person. The rest are run of the mill. Vermont is so far out of the mainstream in this nation, it really is an embarrassment. Jeffords and Leahy are really caught in a time warp and Bernie is the best snake oil salesman this state has ever seen.

»» C. Peter Jorgensen: Just to give you pause for thought, I always take a "poll" of people like cab drivers and bellhops, waitresses, doormen, car jockeys and others when I am traveling in the two or three months prior to a Presidential Election. Currently these "working Americans" who have actually voted in previous elections are running at least 5 to 2 for Bush. States covered include Tennessee, Georgia, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire in just the last month alone. Even a small Vermont businessman told me today that, "I don't like Bush and his war, but I'm really afraid of Kerry. I don't think he can handle the job."

So, I really think Bush has an edge. The "Democrats" signed up to "register" outside of supermarkets and in malls generally are signing to be polite. If they haven't registered on their own for the past 20 to 40 years and voted, what's going to get them to the polls tomorrow?

If they have a personal interest--know somebody serving in the armed forces who was injured, killed or called up and shipped "OVER THERE" then perhaps they will go for Kerry., But I think not--I only wish I was so sure!

THEY LIKE US

»» KMS: What a breath of fresh air you are...

REGARDING THOSE BLUE STATES?

"I wouldn't call it fascism exactly, but a political system nominally controlled by an irresponsible, dumbed down electorate who are manipulated by dishonest, cynical, controlled mass media that dispense the propaganda of a corrupt political establishment can hardly be described as democracy either." --Edward Zehr

THE OLD GREY MARE AIN’T WHAT SHE USED TO BE

“We have lost just about everything that we can lose.” -- House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, California Liberal

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