IT AIN'T THE ECONOMY STUPID

In 2006 it was not about the economy; it was about character. Gas prices fell, unemployment fell, the stock market soared to an all time record, and as with Tom Dooley, Saddam Hussein will hang. Yet nothing would help President Bush and the Grand Old Party. The Democrats nationalized the race for Congress.

In the presidential pruning process, each candidate has to pass the "character hurdle" in order to be accepted as a viable candidate. No screaming allowed for example. Once the election was nationalized, it was in part about Iraq; but it was really about character. And the Republicans failed miserably. It would not have mattered if the other choice was the Progressive Party, the Bull Moose Party, or the Whigs. Folks across America were voting for the other guys, whoever they were.

PEOPLE BEHAVING BADLY

It is surprising how quickly the Republicans lost their way. There were bad Democrats too, but fewer and particularly not lately. Recall Democrat William Jefferson, D-Louisiana, had over a $100,000 in his freezer given him to by the solicitor of a favor. Jefferson was not defeated Tuesday, but does face a two person runoff contest next month.

Senate Majority Leader-elect Harry Reid, D-Nevada, raked in a cool million without breaking a sweat or bothering to report it as required, but this scum all disappeared in the wash.

On the other side, first there was a trickle; then there was a flood. GOP Congressman Randy Cunningham, R-California, took millions in kickbacks. Then Congressman Bob Ney, R-Ohio, confessed to having been bought and paid for by Jack Abramoff. Representative Curt Weldon, R-Pennsylvania, under investigation by the FBI for allegedly steering lucrative lobbying and consulting contracts to his daughter. Senator un-elect and former presidential wannabe George Allen, R-Virginia, ran for racist of the year.

RUNNING UP THE SCORE

Representative Mark Foley, R-Florida, was bad, hitting on legislative pages, man to boy sort of thing. The leadership circled the wagons, but around what; stench? A bunch of old white men were unable to try something new. Republican icon Rush Limbaugh must have gone off his medicines, criticizing Michael J. Fox for faking Parkinson's disease.

Speaking of a thumpin', Bible thumper and Republican religious icon Ted Haggard, aka Art the gay dude, and former member of the Supreme Court nominee screening committee, took up recreational speeding gay sex. The Devil made him do it.

MULLINGS SPEAKS

Rich Galen chastised the party: "The Republican Leadership has allowed the Members to engage in self-dealing on an unprecedented scale. Whether it was trips paid for by lobbyists; hiring family members at high salaries to plan parties; steering consulting business to former staffers; or outright bribery, Members of Congress have been developing a sense of entitlement that would embarrass most of us.

"The Republican Leadership has allowed the Members to spend too much of our money on projects most of us don't care about, don't need and, if we knew about them, wouldn't want. These are "earmarks" -- the business of demanding that Federal agencies spend hundreds of millions of our tax dollars to placate favored friends, businesses, donors and/or lobbyists which became the norm among members of the Appropriations Committees."

CALLING EMILY POST

Character. Quality. Dignity. Class. The GOP showed none. Having set a higher standard for themselves, they looked even more foolish. The bottom fell out. An earthquake. The upheaval created a tsunami. When word leaked out that the GOP was self-destructing, corporations and special interests that had stiffed Democrats' plea for money in the past twelve years, saying, "We don't need you," started pulling out their checkbooks. They had bought the Republican Congress; why couldn't they buy a Democrat one. Only time will tell. It is hard to believe that the American people have much patience. As President Kemeny of Dartmouth College told the graduating class of 1970, "You are now them."

NOW AND FOREVER

No dignity, no message, all hubris all the time, corrupt, bloated, hypocritical madness and yet they still hold almost two hundred seats. Not for long.

How would you like to be a Democrat recruiter just about now? They had a very hard time finding people to run eighteen months ago. What rising star wanted to give up what he/she had for an unlikely chance to be in a minority party? Not many from the "A" list took up the offer.

The tables have turned. Now it looks likely that Democrats win in 2008, and the newly elected will join the majority party. If they hold on for only two terms, they can gerrymander away, insuring liberal hegemony forever.

THE CYCLES OF AMERICAN HISTORY

Arthur Schlesinger's book by that name was published in 1986. His hypothesis was that in the United States, conservative and liberal movements alternate in their attraction to voters. A cycle lasts thirty-two years.

The first cycle he chronicled was a conservative cycle, from 1900 to 1932. During that time every president was a Republican except Woodrow Wilson. Vermont's own Calvin Coolidge, president from 1923-1929, declared, "The business of America is business." He was followed by the great depression.

President Franklin Roosevelt used that crisis to launch the New Deal, creating much of social legislation that we have today, from the Securities and Exchange Commission to the Federal Communications Commission, from unemployment compensation, minimum wage, and social security to food stamps. At its end came the civil rights movement and Medicare.

That second cycle, a liberal one, lasted until 1968, during which every president was a Democrat except Dwight Eisenhower. A third cycle began in 1968 and now has ended. If Schlesinger is right, we have now entered another liberal cycle.

GOLDWATER'S LEGACY

The third cycle was less predictable. After Nixon came Watergate. In came Democrat Jimmy Carter for a regrettable cameo. The cycle quickly returned to form with Presidents Reagan and Bush. Communism was defeated, industries were deregulated, taxes were halved, and family values carried the day.

Bill Clinton followed, out of order. He was only elected because of the third party candidacy of Ross Perot. Clinton was not elected by a majority, fifty percent plus one, in either term. Political and economic conditions pushed aside his liberal agenda; Clinton pushed welfare reform and other conservative policies forced on him by the Gingrich revolution. The media even asked Clinton if he was relevant.

The cycle continued on its conservative path beyond its scheduled thirty-two years. In 2000, Democrat presidential candidate Al Gore shunned Clinton's help, stumbled badly, and the Supreme Court, voting along party lines, blessed the candidacy of his opponent, the loser of the popular vote, George Bush. Bush eked out a second term over stumblebum John Kerry. Kerry recently reminded us of how stupid he really is. It was reported that he fought releasing his early background information during the campaign as he did not want folks to find out that his grades at Yale were even lower than those of President Bush.

THE GOLDEN AGE

If the Schlesinger theory is correct, we are in another thirty-two year liberal agenda cycle. Interestingly, when Upton Sinclair, socialist and muckraker, ran for governor of California in 1934, his platform, EPIC standing for Ending Poverty in California, included an agenda of progressive policies. All have been enacted into law except national health care. If the national Democrats finally get that right, it will remove the burden Vermont's legislature is placing on its citizens and health providers with its own mini version of a national health care plan.

Having lived a military life, and having lived in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, we support national health care. The potential to reduce administrative costs, to give the comfort of coverage for everyone, and to provide preventive health care for all is enough to justify the loss of market incentives.

QUIET PLEASE

Listen my children and you will hear the soft sounds of clapping; the people have spoken, they are happy, they will be happier still if you raise their taxes again.

THE TUSAMI HITS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS

When the Contract with America drove out the Democrats in 1994, polls showed a seven point gap between the parties. This fall's polls showed an eighteen point gap. Huge; unstoppable.

The national tsunami reached all the way to Vermont. In the end hopefuls going door to door were not being asked about their position on property taxes but their views on Washington. "But I am running for the Vermont legislature." It did not matter; folks wanted to know.

NEW ENGLAND BLOODBATH

As disappointing as the outcome of Vermont's legislative elections were for Republicans, look at the other New England states. In New Hampshire, the GOP lost ninety house seats including fifty-seven incumbents and six senate seats. In Maine the Democrats gained fifteen house seats. In Connecticut and Massachusetts, the Dems also have a veto-proof house and senate.

THANKS TO THE GRAND OLD PARTY

No other New England state elected two, let alone three Republican state officers; only Vermont: Governor Douglas, Lieutenant Governor Dubie, and Auditor Randy Brock. According to Jim Barnett, Chair of VTGOP, in spite of defeats, Vermont Republicans should be proud of their efforts. Volunteers in Vermont made 140,000 GOTV calls. Imagine that effort. Imagine recruiting and coordinating all those people. It is not that they gave up.

The party also helped legislators design and execute 120 mailings. These efforts blunted the usual Democrat finishing surge. Data suggests that there was no last minute up-tick for the Democrats, unlike years past. Amazingly, it could have been worse.

TUSAMI PROTECTION PLAN

The key to stopping the tsunami in Vermont was to hit your opponents early. That was easier for Douglas and Dubie than for legislative candidates. As one insider said, "It was not enough in 2006 for a prospective legislator to say here I am, here is what I have done, here is what I would do. They needed to say, this is what my opponent did and they will do it again. If you did not clearly contrast yourself with your opponent, you had no traction." The Republicans behaving badly in Washington had slimed all Republicans in the nation making for very slippery going.

THE WINNING STRATEGY

Perhaps, though, VTGOP thought too much about tactics and not enough about strategy. Clearly, their effort is more than commendable. But the opportunity was there, slime or no slime. Many were up in arms about taxes, particularly the property tax. Instead of supporting individual candidates, they might have supported a statewide campaign exposing the Democrat's record of every tax increase known to man. Perhaps they could have pounded the fact that Democrats from 1996 to 2005 increased our tax burden by one and a half times (150%), while the national average is an increase of only a third (36%)?

It is baffling that when one issue is so hot, taxes, completely caused by Democrats, that Democrats not only win, they pick up eleven seats.

REVOLT AND DISSEMBLE

Republican legislators responding to cries for help developed a new message, Revolt and Repeal. Their plan was not a plan. They supported repeal of Act 60 and Act 68 in 2009 if the legislature failed to act. But still they had no plan.

Quickly their effort was turned against them. "It is irresponsible to just repeal something without having a plan to replace it," Democrats said. "When we return to the legislature, we will fix it." And the Revolt and Repeal movement never recovered.

THE GANG THAT COULDN'T SHOOT STRAIGHT

The Vermont Business Coalition decided to try a new strategy this year. For years they have tried going along to get along. This strategy failed they said. Folks passed legislation after legislation not in the interests of its members. This year they would join the game, target some of the worst political offenders, and campaign against them.

After its announcement, they were set upon by the media. Who do you think you are, who are your members, whom are you attacking? All were Democrats? Oh me oh my, whined the media, how unfair. Well maybe, but the Democrats were the ones with a zero rating on issues important to us.

THUGGERY

A rocky start. Word leaked out that all was not well in their coalition, some of the wiser members dropped out. The rest marched on, unmoved. Chuck Lacy, the Speaker's husband, began a series of harassing phone calls, threatening members of the coalition great harm if they continued. He of course failed to mention that he was First Man.

Imagine if Mrs. Douglas or Mrs. Freed made such calls. What might have been the press's reaction? Probably more than chuckles about Chuck. But of course the ladies, being well mannered, would never had made such calls. They are not thugs.

Finally, after much ado, ads appeared, which must have been part of a pre-school creative class exercise. They were not just unimpressive; they were embarrassing. And of course ineffective. The enemy gained eleven seats. If you are going to take a shot, you had better hit the target. What a fiasco.

THE LITTLE ENGINE THAT COULD

Give Bernie his do. He works, he campaigns, and he hires really sharp people. They develop a plan and stick with it, changing course only when necessary. They spin, cajole, and encourage their press section, the choir.

Yes, Bernie was ranked in the bottom ten in effectiveness for members of Congress, but do not tell Vermonters that. His name may not be on many pieces of legislation, but Bernie pays attention and does quality constituent work. Ask around.

Here are some numbers to contemplate which define Bernie; hard work, commitment and perseverance. Bernie's campaign record:

1972-runs for US senate, Liberty Union Party, 1,571 votes, 2.2%
1972-runs for governor, Liberty Union Party, 2,175 votes, 1.1%
1974-runs for US senate, Liberty Union Party, 5,901 votes, 4.1%
1976-runs for governor, Liberty Union Party, 11,317 votes, 6.1%
1981-runs for mayor of Burlington, Independent, 4,045 votes
1983-runs for mayor of Burlington, Independent*
1985-runs for mayor of Burlington, Independent, 5,760 votes
1986-runs for governor, Independent, 28,418 votes, 14.4%
1987-runs for mayor of Burlington, Independent, 6,901 votes
1988-runs for Congress, Independent, 90,026 votes, 37.5%
1990-runs for Congress, Independent, 117,522 votes, 56%
1992-runs for Congress, Independent, 162,724 votes, 58%
1994-runs for Congress, Independent, 105,502 votes, 50%
1996-runs for Congress, Independent, 140,678 votes, 55%
1998-runs for Congress, Independent, 136,403 votes, 63%
2000-runs for Congress, Independent, 196,118 votes, 69%
2002-runs for Congress, Independent, 144,880 votes, 64%
2004-runs for Congress, Independent, 205,774 votes, 68%
2006-runs for US Senate, Independent, 170,866 votes, 65%

Anyway you look at this, you have to be impressed, by his persistence, his creativeness to craft his first victory, and his ability to win, win and win.

*-Lori Olberg of the Burlington City Clerk's office, told DPR, "Unfortunately, the other books containing the election records for this period have been stolen, missing for years. You may archive the Burlington Free Press for further information." Maybe Bernie could put an intern on this. One would think that the City of Burlington would have a small interest in its own history, especially for a story as remarkable as its former mayor, Bernie Sanders.

THE LITTLE ENGINE THAT COULDN'T

Martha Rainville must be the most patronized candidate in all of America. Every Vermont editorialist raved about her commitment to a clean campaign. Yet other than the Caledonian-Record and the Saint Albans Messenger, and a couple of others, no endorsements. It is worse than kissing your brother; she was just kissed off.

To make matters worse, her opponent Peter Welch, who garnered most of the endorsements, refused to sign the clean campaign commitment as did Martha. Yet he received equal kudos. He did not earn them; they were granted by the adoring liberal editorial writers, blithely, without recognition that the candidates were not similar. One was a unique woman, the other a cagey career politician who somehow covered his own negative campaign tracks.

GOING NEGATIVE WITHOUT RECOGNITION

Here are a few of the negative attacks from his mail campaign, words that go right to her character, not to her issues, the very definition of negative campaigning.

"She showed a lack of political savvy; she accepted money from some of the most ethically challenged Republicans; her evasions and inconsistencies do not show leadership; she gave every indication that she would be another rubber-stamper on Capitol Hill."

How much more vicious could you be? And these accusations are not even true! On the other hand, Rainville's political mail was about Rainville. What a unique thought. All positive, high quality mail.

And yet Vermont's leading daily, The Burlington Free Press, not only failed to recognize Rainville's uniqueness, they blindly endorsed Welch's campaign tactics, writing, "Rainville pledged to run a clean campaign, and Welch stepped up to the plate... These two have asked for voter support without impugning the character of the other. Both candidates resisted going negative."

WHEN THE PUBLIC MARCHES, JUMP IN FRONT

Welch's ads were also disingenuous, or perhaps untruthful. Take his minimum wage claim. "As president of the Vermont Senate, Peter Welch led the fight to increase the minimum wage. He will go to Washington and do the same." What, be a bystander?

Governor Douglas, to the shock and awe of his own party, announced support for raising Vermont's minimum wage not once but twice. There was even a Republican Speaker of the House at the time. Welch was a mere bystander.

TRUTH IN ADVERTISING

In many states, the media reviews each political advertisement for truth in advertising. Often there is a box in the local paper analyzing each political ad. Not here. Representative-elect Peter Welch can get away with not just negative ads, but dishonest ones as well.

NO TRACTION

A political expert from away asked DPR, "If Rich Tarrant is self funding his campaign, wouldn't he run on his being truly independent? No special interests, no spending lots of time raising money and returning donor's calls?"

You might think so, but not in Vermont. Recall Howard Dean's saying, "If you are a maxed-out contributor, ($400 was the limit when he said it), I will return your phone call." Attorney General Sorrell argued before the United States Supreme Court that a mere $400 contribution could make a politician corrupt in Vermont.

In a campaign, messages collide, bump into each other, until one prevails. First, the collusion, horizontal into incoming horizontal, turns into a circle where only one of the messages is heard, the other long gone. In this case, Tarrant's message was that because of self-funding, he was a true independent. Bernie's response was, "Tarrant is trying to buy a senate seat." Which message prevailed? Rich is trying to buy a senate seat. Who made it prevail? The media. The media repeated and bought into the message that Rich was rich, had no message, and was just trying to buy a ticket to Washington.

MEDIA PLAYS THE GAME TOO

Do we think that the media had a conference call every morning to chat about how to criticize the Tarrant campaign? No, they just do it so effortlessly, consistently, and unconsciously, with no recognition of their compliance and collusion with the goals of the liberal candidate. This makes it even more mendacious. They have been part of the liberal hegemony in Vermont for so long that they no longer recognize that they parked their independence years ago and joined the team.

TAKE THIS

They performed in a similar fashion defining negative campaigning and chastising its use. The Tarrant campaign insisted that its ads were contrastive; i.e. this is how Bernie voted, this is how Tarrant would have voted. The ads did not go to Bernie's character as Welch's mail did of Rainville, only to Bernie's votes. Scudder Parker attacked Jim Douglas and vice versa; Matt Dunne attacked Brian Dubie and vice versa. Randy Brock did not attack and barely held on. But the media gave a free pass to all but Tarrant.

The media accepted the Sanders' position that Tarrant ads were negative. The Sanders campaign started this drumbeat back in February, and by May the debate was over. Once again competing messages circled into only one message: it was not about comparing apples to oranges, it was only negative.

HE GETS IT

One editorialist understands the true definition of negative campaigning. This from Dick Drysdale of the Herald of Randolph.

"Is Vermont being flooded with negative political advertising? That depends, as Bill Clinton might say, on what "negative" means.

"If negative political advertising means pointed attacks on an opponent's record, then there's been a lot of it, and much of it has been in sound-bite sizes so small that it doesn't contribute much but rancor and confusion.

"If negative advertising means attacks on character, however --the kind of character assassination that George W. Bush's 'fast boat' squads leveled at Sen. John Kerry-- then Vermont this campaign season has remained relatively free of it --pretty much.

"Most of the criticism for negative advertising has swirled around the television ads of Rich Tarrant, who is trying desperately to make Vermonters take a second look at their longtime love affair with Bernie Sanders. Compared to hard-core negative ads, however, Tarrant's ads are not particularly shocking. They don't attack Sanders for being dishonest or improperly influenced, for instance. The closest they come to this is the tag line, 'What's happened to Bernie?' a pretty mild query that implies that Sanders has lost track of his constituents' views while in Washington.

"The better criticism of Tarrant's ads is not that they are negative, but that they are so shallow that they convey no useful information. Tarrant's complaint about Sanders' vote on the Amber Alert system, for instance, would seem to imply that Sanders is soft on child abduction. That thought is so absurd that it invites criticism of the ad rather than its intended target. The same was true with a subsequent ad implying that Sanders was opposed to child care credits as part of Bush's tax cuts. Ridiculous on its face.

"Sanders has been careful not to take the gloves off in response. Not so his supporters, though. Newspapers have been besieged regularly with letters that are more negative than anything Tarrant has put on the air --letters that question his honesty, claim he's trying to buy the election, etc. The letters have a similarity about them that is suspicious.

"Perhaps the most consistently negative campaign we see through candidate emails comes from the campaign of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Scudder Parker. Parker has the same problem as Tarrant in trying to discredit a popular incumbent, in this case Jim Douglas. He hasn't broadcast his negativity as frequently as Tarrant (he hasn't the money to do so), but the emails from his campaign are consistently negative about every aspect of Douglas' character and his administration, charging the governor with being underhanded and dishonest with the public..."

CELEBRATING DIVERSITY

Vermont now has one of the oldest delegations, all white, all male, all liberal, all children of the 60's, all losing their hair. What happened to diversity? Where are the blacks, the women, the GLBTQs, the WASPs, and the woodchucks?

KUDOS TO TARRANT

»» Mary Daly, Fairlee: Out of curiosity I searched for Rich Tarrant's foundation web site to see what else he has done for the State of Vermont. If you are curious, go to the Richard and Deborah Tarrant Foundation and read for yourselves what he has been quietly doing. Then if anyone asks you why you are voting for him, you can state some very interesting facts. Oh, and I couldn't find a foundation web site for Bernard Sanders.

KUDOS TO DUBIE - DUNNE SHOULD BE DONE

»» Paul Chandler, Newport: One of the most irksome things in this campaign season is Matt Dunne --he who has been in the legislature almost since attaining the age of majority-- trying to make issue of Brian Dubie's time spent in the office. If I remained in my office 40 hours a week, 52 weeks a year, which seems to Mr. Dunne to be the definition of full time work, I would be less productive and my company would suffer as a result.

Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, on the other hand, has been very proactive in trying to attract business to the state (not an easy thing to do in this state's environment), has visited countless Vermonters, and not just in election years. Why the Free Press endorsed his opponent is a mystery. Senator Dunne will not meet a more honest man than Brian Dubie. Hopefully, as a citizen for the first time in many years after Tuesday, he can truly see the Lt. Governor for what he is and what he has done.

NIGHTS OF THE ROUND COFFEE TABLE

»» Michael Leonard Rowley: I thought you might like a little story I wrote, (with the help of King Arthur), about our current election:

With the defeat of the Republicans in the House and Senate the nation of America fell into a period of great danger, both from without and within. Every politician who had the support of any army of loyal followers wished to become the next president. Meanwhile, other nations wished to invade America and establish companies on its rich soil. Unless a leader could emerge who was strong enough to unite the disparate politicians and rally them to defend their land, America was certain to be consumed, bite by byte.

Gas Prices low, unemployment low, and enrollment in college high.
To be successful all you need to do is reach out and grasp it.
Yet, The president is evil, as are all the Republicans.
Vote them out, you say, and you do.
For Shame, America, For Shame,
I turn my face from you.

THEY LIKE US

»» Morgan Nields, Denver, CO: Great stories on liberal bias in the media --Like the LA Times, the networks will continue to lose share and then it will be a mega-battle of CNN vs Rupert Murdoch....

»» Ted Lambert: Great items!

»» Karen Kerin, Royalton: Great report, but alas, probably too late to make a difference.

»» Francis Jones, Bennington: I am happy to see you back on the job.

»» George Murdoch, Middlebury: Thanks for the thorough expose on Bernie. He will be even harder to dislodge as senator. He is the consummate politician; witness his disenfranchisement of Vermont Democrats. That ranks right up there with Jeffords' gymnastics as a turncoat. Nice to have you back in print.

»» Sam Sparhawk III, Elkins Park, PA: Great to see you back in circulation, although yesterday's results for the US Senate from VT make me feel a little sick after reading the most recent letter.

SANDERS AND WELCH REPENT

"On Tuesday, Oct. 31 the Sanders for Senate and Welch for Congress campaigns bought a set of advertisements in UVM's student newspaper, The Vermont Cynic urging students to "join us in voting for [Bernie Sanders/Peter Welch, respectively] on November 7." Over 100 University of Vermont faculty members signed the advertisements, ranging from English professors to Computer Science lecturers.

"These advertisements are a blatant display of personal political views being impressed upon students. The advertisements prompt us to ask the following question: where is the bright-line in terms of influencing students with advertisements of the political views of University faculty and staff? The Oct. 31 advertisements breached this social contract."

--Editorial, Vermont Cynic, November 6, 2006   Full text: http://www.vermontcynic.com/

BEWARE COPYING EUROPE

"Government should be a part of society, not the whole of society. That is the mindset that has rooted here in Europe: that government should be the be-all and end-all of everything that goes on in society.... and all activities are judged based on whether or not they are 'helpful' to 'government.' This is not an American attitude, but an alien one that has been imported from the failed states of Western Europe."

--Captain America from Estonia

VERMONT AS THE UNITED NATIONS

"This atmosphere is like a bubble. It is like a twilight zone. Things that happen here don't reflect the reality in the rest of the world.

"There are practices, attitudes and approaches here that were abandoned 30 years ago in much of the rest of the world. It's like a time warp."

--John Bolton on the UN, Daily Telegraph, 1/05/06  Full text:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk

THIS SATURDAY IS SPECIAL

"In 1918, the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month marked the cessation of World War I hostilities. That date is now designated in honor of our veterans, and a focal point for national observance is the placing of a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Arlington National Cemetery.

"Let us never, ever forget."

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