OFF TO THE RACES

And then there were three as Speaker Gaye Symington threw her hat into the ring last week standing in front of the State Capitol saying, "We need a governor with the courage to shift this state into gear, and I intend to be that governor." She added that she will "grow jobs with a secure energy future and an affordable healthcare system that is accessible to all Vermonters. Of the fastest growing occupations in Vermont only one pays a wage high enough to afford the cost of housing. The failure to move forward is a failure of leadership."

Progressive gubernatorial candidate Anthony Pollina responded by saying, "The Speaker and the Governor have been on the same side of too many issues over the past few years. Health care is a right for all Vermonters. We must deal with the costs of health care, fuel, energy, and housing. The average Vermonter cannot afford the cost of the average Vermont home. We need to tell the story that Vermont is the best place to do business."

Governor Douglas said, "Everyday I deal with improving the opportunities for Vermonters. Everyday I work to make Vermont more affordable. We just cannot afford any more broad based taxes." Ms. Symington acknowledged that to broaden Catamount and implement her energy policy that she may "have to have a broad based tax increase. There is a growing gap between high and low-income families. That gap is growing faster in Vermont than in any other state but one."

WHAT YOU DIDN'T HEAR

What Ms. Symington did not say is that the cost of a health care system for all Vermonters will be stupendous. If a secure energy future does not include Vermont Yankee, the cost increase of electricity will be dramatic. If making home ownership available to people with low paying jobs, the government subsidy will be huge. If equalizing our incomes includes tax transfer payments from the rich to the poor, the rich will become poorer and leave. Her idea that "a Vermont where all families can benefit from a vibrant entrepreneurial economy" will be more dream than reality.

MONTPELIER, WE HAVE A PROBLEM

In the past few years, the largest business in Island Pond, Gilman, and Lunenburg has all shut their doors. Recently, in Granville the 150 year old bowl factory announced that it is closing. CFM, the owner of Vermont Castings, filed for bankruptcy, shutting down the assembly plant in Bethel and the foundry in Randolph. Clear Source Inc. in Randolph Center unexpectedly laid off everyone without notice. And all over Vermont, the Chittenden Bank laid of seventy-one workers.

The plywood mill in Hancock closed down, Green Mountain Wood Products from Braintree shut down shortly after moving to Randolph, Northfield Wood Products once had fifty workers and it now has almost none, Home Depot closed in Brattleboro and withdrew from Berlin, and Simon Pearce of Quechee laid off twenty-three saying that their plant in Mountain Lake Park, MD will handle the distribution (ironically, Mr. Pearce left the United Kingdom to move to Vermont to be free from the onerous regulations and then expanded in Maryland to be free from Vermont's onerous regulations).

W. T. Solutions of Saint Johnsbury closed putting eighty in the jobless line, in Barre Rock of Ages' quarrying and manufacturing has hundreds of fewer jobs than in their glory days and has now sold their retail division adding to the area's joblessness (their vast main quarry which was the object of awe for the many tourists is now a big lake while quality granite lies under the roadway which the town refuses to allow them to move), and in Morrisville Howard Manosh's saw mill and furniture business both closed up shop placing scores in the jobless ranks.

NOT OUR FAULT, NOTHING WE CAN DO

As the recent budget cutting legislative session was ending, Senate pro tem Peter Shumlin said, "The causes of our current economic pain are beyond our power to control." On May 1 Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Bartlett wrote in the Stowe Reporter, "The reality is that there is very little a single state can do to stimulate the economy. The recession is caused by national policy, or lack thereof."

For the slow learners, Bartlett wrote once again in the May 8th Stowe Reporter, "In reality, there is little that a single state can do to have much of an impact on these issues." Vermont Business Magazine opined in its May, 2008 Editorial, "Vermont cannot undo a national recession."

JUST THE FACTS, MAMN

An analysis of Vermont's unemployment data suggest otherwise. In May, 2005 national unemployment according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics was at 5.1% while Vermont's was at 3.3%.

By March, 2007, the national unemployment had gone down to 4.4%, a drop of 14%. Meanwhile Vermont's unemployment moved up to 4.0, an increase of 21%.

This data suggest that Vermont's bad economy began to sour three years ago while the national picture was still improving. It suggests that Vermont may be responsible for its own mess and that there is something that Vermont can and needs to do; it suggests that perhaps the Vermont model is broken.

BYE BYE BLUES

In the most recent data for March, 2008, the national unemployment is back to 5.1%, and Vermont's continues to grow, up to 4.6%. However, in the last six months according to data produced by the Vermont Department of Labor, our workforce has shrunk by 5,200. If you assume that these people left the state looking for work, our unemployment rate could have been 6% had they stayed.

A TRUE TALE

Governor Douglas responding to a question about his jump starting new home construction and showing how in touch he is with Vermont, "I am not sure that there are enough skilled tradesmen left should a building boom occur."

One heavy equipment operator was laid off as usual last fall, but earlier than usual. He loved his job. This spring his call back date was pushed back. Because Vermont's Diaspora is growing, he talked with a friend who had found work in Lancaster, PA and was encouraged to apply. He was offered a job and accepted it. In Vermont he was paid $16.75 an hour, the new job paid $22.00 an hour, plus approximately twenty hours of overtime at $33.00 an hour. And the company will pay mileage from his home to his job site, a benefit unavailable here for his commute from the White River Valley to Chittenden County. He and his family of course have moved, but they have left behind parents, grandparents, and community.

JIM = JOBS

Nope, despite his efforts, he made a promise that he could not deliver. Governor Douglas ran in 2002 on the slogan: Jim = Jobs. The unemployment rate in January, 2003 was 4.6%; the unemployment rate in March, 2008 was 4.6%. Just saying that Vermont is a great place to do business, as candidates Symington and Pollina insist will cause business to boom, belie the data. To say that our recession is caused by the national one is contradicted by the data.

Symington said in her announcement, "If elected Governor I will create a Business Plan for the state in concert with leaders in business and education. A plan that provides the direction to prosper in a global economy and that includes education and training for jobs for Vermonters without college degrees so that they can share in that prosperity."

As she writes her business plan, she needs to first recognize our current situation: Montpelier, we have a problem, and then answer the following...

SYMINGTON, ALOFT IN HER WRITER'S GARRET, ASKS

Can we afford the luxury of an Act 250 where permits can take over seventeen years as with the Wal-Mart application in Saint Albans?

Can we afford the luxury of having the highest health insurance premiums created by community rating where there are no incentives for good health plus a constant mandating of new coverage by the legislature?

Can we afford the luxury of having the smallest class sizes in America where school costs rise and educators increase in number while our student population falls?

Can we afford the highest levels of workman's compensation costs?

Can we afford to have nearly the nations' worst kept roads and bridges?

Can we afford the luxury of aggressive land conservation removing developable land from the marketplace?

Can we afford the luxury of increasing our wilderness areas and shrinking our working landscape?

IT AIN'T ROCKET SCIENCE

Forbes magazine examined how America's fifty largest metro areas have done during this recession by looking at data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They found that, in fact, there are things that a smaller governmental unit can do to reverse America's downward trend.

They researched ten cities where unemployment was falling and economic growth was over five percent. The model which is working today includes lower taxes, quicker permits, and availability of land for development. Their data showed that it is possible to grow in spite of a national recession. Vermont however is a long way from lower taxes and faster permits.

http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/americas-recession-proof-cities.html

FIRST, DO NO HARM

Thank God it was over, the 2007-8 legislative biennium. One moment the state house was abuzz with activity. Lobbyists, advocates, members of the administration, the governor and his staff, representative, senators, members of the press, and observers were crowding the hallways, meeting rooms, and cafeteria in Montpelier, chatting away, making last minutes pleas or last minute deals. And then it was over. The tourists strolled slowly through our capitol admiring its beauty.

WHERE DID ALL THE MONEY GO?

The legislative discussions were dominated by the lack of excess cash. Yet the budget grew over three percent. However in Montpelier terms, unlike business where huge cuts have been necessary, it was a very tight year. They had to "cut" about $25,000,000 from their expected budget because of the last minute revenue shortfalls; but as Governor Douglas said, there was "some shuffling and some cutting." For example, once they agreed to bond $10,000,000 for road repair, they took $2,000,000 from the Highway Fund to support another program. They took almost the same amount from the petroleum clean up fund for another good cause.

By adjourning two weeks early, the legislature saved voters over $1,000,000. This however did not make up for the grandiose $1,500,000 spent on global warming at the beginning of this legislature last year.

Legislation passed this year includes increasing raw milk sales, controlling ground water, energy conservation to save money, prison reorganization to cut accelerating costs, stronger beer allowed in stores, pot hole repair, an economic stimulus package including a sales tax holiday weekend, and a housing bill which allows some projects to move forward without an Act 250 permit.

TEXT ME BABE

Not making it through was legislation to "improve" Catamount Health, a repeal of the two-vote school budget provision, and teenage cell phone prohibition while driving.

The last two were defeated by a single vote, that of Senate pro tem Peter Shumlin who just did not allow the legislation to go forward. The cell phone bill was in response to teenage highway deaths attributed to text messaging and cell phone use while driving. Shumlin merely said, "If you don't want your kids to use a cell phone while driving, don't get your kid a phone." Yet teens work, make money, and buy their phones.

THE PEN IS MIGHTER THAN THE SWORD

Douglas' veto pen took out the campaign finance reform bill, instant runoff voting bill, the bill to remove the Electoral College method of presidential selection with direct voting, and the Vermont Yankee energy tax bill.

The big issue that went unaddressed is the burden of the property tax. As editorialist David Moats wrote, "Lawmakers bemoaned the fact that they had not done anything significant to curb the rise of property taxes. Bemoaning a lack of action at the end of the session is part of the ritual. Promising action at the beginning of the session is the other part of the ritual."

DRIVER'S ED

Once upon a time, the operation of the horseless carriage proved quite the challenge. With each passing year came additional challenges. One had to learn its operation and monitor wipers while using directional signals. Then they learned to drive while distracted by radios, ashtrays, light dimmers, and cigarette lighters.

Once the skills of driving with multiple tasks and distractions were developed, one learned to drive while operating a radio, a tape deck, and a CD player. Then along came bottle and coffee holders, global positioning devices, and cell phones. With each level of distraction, accidents occurred. But now children are dying while trying to receive or send a text messages while driving way too fast as is their habit. Hence the legislature spent over a year crafting a law to protect teenagers. But like President Bush, Senator Shumlin was the decider, "If kids can lead by example, then why should they live by a different set of rules than we do?" Hello.

Inexperience maybe, lack of judgment, or teen pressure? Or data which suggests here in Vermont that children are dying because of cell phones, that people are crossing the center line with regularity because of distraction. As Representative Maxine Grad was quoted in the Times Argus, "It just does not make sense (for Shumlin to have stopped this bill)."

WHAT CAN WE DO?

The Democrats said nothing can be done about our economic plight. Vermont's business press said nothing can be done. But our hero, Governor Douglas, upon hearing the grim news from the state economist, directed his staff to develop economic stimulus ideas which might improve the economic outlook but which would not increase the budget.

He presented his new ideas including sales tax holidays, increased logging on state lands, tax credits to businesses in the "distressed" communities along the Canadian border, and a variety of home mortgage adjustments. He also improved his New Neighborhoods proposal to jump start new home construction.

As news leaked out that he was working on some economic package, the Democrats got their knickers in a knot, refusing to work as they said and believed that Douglas must have some money up his sleeve to pay for the stimulus. But he didn't; almost the entire package was cost free.

THE SAGE OF OMAHA SPEAKS

Though the state's economists predicted/hoped that Vermont recession would be "short and shallow", Warren Buffet, the world's richest man, said, according to Reuters, "My general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think. This will not be short and shallow. I think consumers are feeling gas and food prices, and not feeling they've got a lot of money for other things."

MONKEY SEE, MONKEY DO

Senate pro tem Peter Shumlin and Speaker Gaye Symington created a special committee to both look at the Governor's economic ideas and to create its own. Representative Mark Larson of Burlington chaired this Committee of Economic Recovery and Opportunity.

Before presenting its ideas, Senator Shumlin said, "The causes of our current economic pain are beyond our power to control: the high cost of gasoline and heating oil, the high food costs created by Washington's subsidy of growing corn for fuel, and the housing crisis created by greedy folks on Wall Street."

After Chairman Larson presented a list of ideas, Speaker Symington acknowledged, "It is true that this list includes much that we have already done or are doing to help those Vermonters suffering the most pain."

BUSINESS PEOPLE ARE FAILURES

When asked why there was little in his package to stimulate business, Larson replied, "We did not want to stimulate the economy which had already not been working. Vermont families' income has not been rising (so business has not been doing its job)," pointing to a graph prepared by the Vermont Tax Department.

It showed that Vermonters making under $60,000 have been taking home less between 2002 and 2006 while those earning over $100,000 have seen their incomes grow by leaps and bounds. Another member, Representative Gail Fallar of Tinmouth, added, "My recommendation is to take the money from those making over $300,000 and give the money to those earning under $50,000."

A STUNNED PRESS SECRETARY

The Governor's Press Secretary Jason Gibbs replied, "That system of government has been tried and failed. Those comments illustrate the fundamental and ideological difference between this governor and the people leading the legislature. Representative Larson's comment shows a disdain for employers and entrepreneurs. In answer to Representative Fallar's comment, where does she think money comes from? It doesn't grow on trees."

OLD NEWS IS BAD NEWS

After town meeting day, folks in Montpelier said that the property tax crisis was over as almost all school budgets passed. In Brighton, the school budget just passed on a second vote by eight votes. The Morgan school budget passed on a second vote. Milton's school budget went extra innings. The land is not as peaceful or as prosperous as represented.

WAL-MART VIRGINS

Wal-Mart virgins are the dwindling few who have yet to set foot in a Wal-Mart. In coastal Mississippi, only Wal-Mart has rebuilt. Whoops, gotta shop there now. According to the Financial Times, Wal-Mart's in "affluent areas" sales are increasing because of the recession.

Ironically, in Vermont liberals have held up the construction of Wal-Mart stores in Derby and Saint Albans for almost twenty-five years. Liberals say that they would do anything to help the poor, but the very store that saves poor people the most money on clothes, drugs, and food is made unavailable to them. And with the Canadian sales tax at eighteen percent and Vermont's at six percent, many shoppers of those two northern Wal-Mart stores would be Canadians who would leave large tax payments and yet create no state expense. Something for nothing, but still the libs say no.

WORLD NEWS

Conservatives win the mayoral races in Rome, Milan, and London. This on top of Germany, Italy, France, Canada, and most of Scandinavia. Is there hope for us?

IS THERE A SOCIALIST UNDER EVERY ROCK?

AP Reporter David Gram suggested to Governor Douglas at the press conference on pot holes that perhaps the Vermont ski areas should pay to fill the potholes as they were created by all those skiers rushing to ski because of all the snow which made the driving and thus the potholes worse.

WATER TO WINE?

»» Jim Mulligan, Barre: Per usual, I read yours of April 17th with great interest with particular emphasis on the closing quote identifiable with the Emergency Board; "However, we think that this recession will be short and shallow. Your questions please"

My question: Are we going to have a reenactment of the loaves and fishes????

Then this morning (April 19th) I was greeted with the Times-Argus headline "Vermont Castings files for bankruptcy." This could not be any closer to home considering your venue and needless to say contrary to expectations for some 170 employees.

EVERY ACTION HAS A REACTION

»» Michael Seely, Dorset & Palm City, FL: Another good letter. Your despair is palpable. I felt the same until we moved our official domicile to Florida this winter. It is a great remedy and it comes with large financial benefits--as you know. No more daily accounts of Vermont politics and the grotesque masquerade of the Lefties' latest ill-informed nostrums. The only downside is that you can't totally eliminate reports of Vermont's Washington reps; e.g., Bernie serving Vermonters by going to Central America to fight free trade (obvious benefit there, heh?), Leahy blocking judicial appointments to an unprecedented degree (slowing our court system) and Welch voting however he is told by the Demo leadership. In my old southern CT district, it looks like Christ Shays will be defeated this fall. That means that all 26 New England Congressional seats will be held by Democrats. The long-awaited breakdown is at hand. Then, we can hope for a breakthrough.

MR. FREYNE

»» Kevin Blier, Brandon: You could not be more right about Freyne. He was not only a bully, but like a typical bully, he didn't enjoy getting punched back!

I sent him an email a couple years back calling him some names and telling him that my advice to anyone who would listen that the best thing they could do was to stop talking to him and giving him fodder. And because of the bully in him, I knew he wouldn't be able to resist printing the email verbatim in one of his columns. He probably thought by doing so that he would embarrass me, but what he didn't know is that I knew he would print it, which allowed me to give the open advice, with his complicity, to everyone who read his column. Peter made getting the advice out to shut him off much easier. The irony of his complicity was especially satisfying.

Because most of the Vermont political press corps that I used to deal with, at one point or another, told me off the record how much they despised him, there would be no circling of the wagons by the press corps in defense of "one of their own".

I admit that antagonizing Freyne was especially pleasurable, almost therapeutic, since I was merely giving him a taste of his own medicine. I wouldn't mind giving him a few more of his just desserts. While Freyne will still be with us, "Inside Look" can RIP! All that is wrong with our politics and our discourse was crystallized in the persona and writing of Peter Freyne. He was not only a reflection of the nastiness, but he was also a purveyor of it.

TAXING SALES

»» Steve Klein, Montpelier: I think the kavet/Carr projection of estimated sales tax revenue was $2.8 million not $28 Million. We generally estimate total value of checks $225 million with about 20% taxable by sales tax... even this is not exact as the education fund will get some.

THEY LIKE US

»» Inge and Henry Schaefer, South Burlington: Thank you for your excellent newsletter.

»» Dick Strifert, Danville: Thanks for your good work and insightful analysis. It is always right on! I long for the days when Cal Coolidge spoke plainly, simple, and truthfully. I get angry when I see how Vermont has become a joke.

»» Kimberly Holmes Lanier, Essex Jct: Thanks, always informative.

»» Tom Licata, Burlington: Both James Ehlers and Dave Usher forwarded your piece on Vermont's economy. It was very good.

»» Bernier Mayo, St. Johnsbury: Welcome back! A good read, as usual. Libby Sternberg's letter was especially good. Her move to Pennysylvania was truly Vermont's loss and their gain. I worked with her in her education commitments. She was the personification of the adherent to "illegitimi non carborundum."

OUR FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT SPEAKS

"Clinton posited the mysterious theory that Obama had played the race card against him. 'I don't think that I should take sh*t from anybody on that,' he said." --The New Yorker, May 5, 2008

YOU CANNOT REPEAT THIS LIST TOO OFTEN

"You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.
You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down.
You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.
You cannot build character and courage by taking away men's initiative and independence.
You cannot help men permanently by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves."

--Abraham Lincoln, Republican, Illinois, soon to be carved on the pedestal of his statue in Vermont's State House (just kidding folks!)

THE HILL

"We keep talking as if it doesn't matter that Obama gets 92 percent of the black vote, because since he only got 35 percent of the white vote, he's in trouble. Well, Hillary Clinton only got 8 percent of the black vote. . . It's almost saying black people don't matter." --Representative James Clyburn (D-SC), Washington Post

THOSE CRACKERS

"I have a much broader base…Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening, whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me." --Hillary Clinton, May 7, 2008, USA Today

GONE BONKERS

"Mr. Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter, said that the Democrat Party could not win in November with just 'eggheads and African-Americans.'" --New York Times, May 7, 2008

HILLARY'S HOW-TO FUNDRAISING MANUEL

"It was only $607, but I am a small guy; I could have used that money." --Jim Philips, Ohio event organizer and one of several businessman stiffed by the Clinton Campaign. Politico.com

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