THE RACE FOR THE SENATE SEAT

There is only one state from 18th century America to the present which has never thrown out a sitting senator, Vermont. There is only one state from the 19th century to the present which has never thrown out a sitting senator, Vermont. There is only one state from the first half of the 20th century which has never thrown out a sitting senator. And now Hawaii has joined Vermont as the only other state which has never thrown out a sitting senator.

This is why the open senate seat in 2006 is important; this is only the second opening of this seat since 1970, and only the second opening for either seat since 1974. Why would the Democrats of Vermont bow down to Socialist Bernie Sanders for this once in two generations opportunity?

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY?

What has Bernie done for Vermont Democrats lately? This question appears to be on the lips of Senate pro tem Peter Welch, D-Windsor, and Vermont Democrat Chairman Peter Mallary. Good question. The answer is: nothing? Worse than that. His party, the Progressives, by running candidates statewide may have cost the Democrats the lieutenant governor seat in 2002, and in 2000 the Progressive candidate for Governor nearly forced Howard Dean's last race into the legislature.

Senator Harry Reid, D-Nevada and minority leader, has anointed Bernie. Reid to our knowledge did not interview the potential Vermont Democrats before crowning the socialist as his boy. What is best for Harry is not best for Vermont, or their Democrats.

SMOKE FILLED ROOMS

WCAX’s Andy Potter said the fix was in. If Bernie assured Reid that no Progressive would run in the Congressional race, then the Democrat Senate Campaign Committee would only give money to Bernie. Though WCAX went soft on this story, the nexus remains.

What have the Democrats done for the Progressives so that they would step aside? Nothing. In 2001 they redistricted the House to take a seat away. The Senate kept the six-member Chittenden County District, denying the Progressives two senators.

SKLETONS DANCING

Bernie the gadfly is one thing. Perhaps in the House, but it is less comforting in the Senate. Bernie has not had a real race since when? A run for senate will not be a $500,000 affair. It will be $5,000,000 at least. Money talks. With that kind of money, an opponent will do a bit of opposition research.

Already the crown is tarnished. Bernie, holier than thou, has been padding the family coffers by paying his step-daughter for what appears to be a seldom seen effort. Wife Jane has been knocking down big fees placing Bernie’s media campaign after campaign, even though Bernie has not required media to win.

In 2004 it appeared that if you wanted Bernie’s endorsement, you had to buy Jane’s services. Lieutenant Governor nominee Cheryl Rivers, Auditor Elizabeth Ready, and Burlington Mayor Peter Clavelle fell in line, lining Jane’s pockets to an estimated $50,000. Not bad for a socialist family representing the little guy. The endorsement did not help; they all lost.

DEMOCRACY 101

Bernie does graduations, preaching the values of democracy. Worthy. But he does not practice it. Agreeing to fix a House race and lock out Democrats in the Senate race would not be high up in the Theory of Democracy 101.

Just this weekend, Bernie was quoted in the AP, "They have the money. We have the people." Show us the last race in which Bernie ran where his opponent had more money. He is a fraud. A well funded campaign will expose that.

THE MESSAGE

Bernie’s message is clear: run against Bush. That Peter Clavelle tried that to no avail in 2004 does not seem to register. Clavelle did not outpoll Bush let alone his opponent Douglas. For example, what might Bernie do for Vermont? Though you will find public buildings named for former Senators Aiken, Prouty, and Stafford, and current Senator Leahy, you will not find those named for Bernie. He delivers outrage, not bacon. Bacon tastes better.

ANOMOLY

There is also something squishy about Bernie’s base. In 1998, Ruth Dwyer, outspoken Republican conservative, received 41 percent of the vote in her race for governor. Republican Mark Condon ran against Bernie and received 33 percent of the vote. Therefore, 20 percent of Ruth’s vote went to Bernie. In a real campaign where the issues and differences are made clear, this will not happen.

MONEY BAGS VERSUS FLY BOY

It appears that IDX millionaire Richard Tarrant may face off against Colonel Brian Dubie, a.k.a. lieutenant governor, for the right to represent the Republican Party in the Senate race. When asked about the primary, Tarrant said, "I am not sure that I understand all the pros and cons of a primary."

Whoa!! Maybe Tarrant should confer with two-time senate loser Jack McMullen and just quietly mention "Spread Fred". We are not talking about fertilizing the fields here. We are talking how millionaire McMullen went down to defeat in the 1998 GOP senate primary to Democrat farmer Fred Tuttle.

Back during the Fletcher Allen Hospital debacle when Tarrant was a board member, he called an IDX press conference. Then he called WCAX. He announced that this was an IDX press conference; there would be no questions about Fletcher Allen. WCAX’s Kristin Kelly asked the first question. She asked about Fletcher Allen. To quote the late WCAX icon Charles Lewis, "We make the news." Tarrant is not ready for prime time.

MISLABELING

Vermont’s press can hardly mention Dubie’s name without appending "right wing" or "very conservative." They might have been instructed by the Vermont voters who returned Mr. Dubie to office with 56 percent of the vote. In that Vermont is statistically the most liberal state in the country, Vermont voters have already decided that the press’s nomenclature for Dubie is inappropriate.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

For those who think that Doug Racine or Peter Clavelle might return successfully to the statewide political battlefield might review their last defeats. When you are a Democrat and receive 42 or 38 percent respectively in Vermont, you can assume that you political hurrahs are best seen in your rear view mirror.

WE LIKE DUBIE

In the end, Bernie is a hypocrite and a fraud; Dubie is sincere and the real deal. His French-Canadian roots and his practicing Catholic beliefs, each enhanced by his constant presence in Quebec, will help to win over conservative Democrats not aligned with liberal Bernie.

Vermont Democrats are being played for suckers by the national team. Their record of 0 for 12 in the last ten years should speak volumes. Why listen to, let alone accept, dictates?

RUN PETER RUN

Here’s a prediction for you: if Peter Welch runs for United States Senate, he wins. If he wastes this opportunity, it will be his last. And Brian Dubie will win.

In 2006 there will not just be the $5-10,000,000 supporting Dubie’s effort. There is the money and staff of Governor Jim Douglas combined with his graceful demeanor, moderate stance, and successful policies. Then there is the race for Congress.

RUN MARTHA RUN

General Martha Rainville may run for Bernie’s old seat. Her class, charisma, experience, mainstream views, and financial support will make her formidable. When was the last time Vermont sent a woman to Washington? Right, never.

Representative David Zuckerman, P-Burlington, says that he may run for Congress. Zuckerman, House Agriculture Chair, is a thoughtful, hardworking, and amiable fellow. He loves his job. If he runs, he will attract votes.

TECTONIC SHIFT

Such a shift created the Tsunami. Such a shift is happening in Vermont. Recall that from 1854 to 1962 all governors were Republican. Since, Democrats have ruled more often than not. From 1984, Democrats have ruled the House except for the four Civil Unions and Act 60 backlash years. The Senate is obscenely Democrat, 21 to 9.

In 1958 Democrat nominee for governor Bernard Leddy beat Bob Stafford in the city of Winooski, 2,229 to 163, that’s 93 percent to 7. Leddy lost statewide by only 719 votes. In 1962 Democrat Phil Hoff carried Winooski 1,949 to 188.

When Hoff beat the incumbent Governor F. Ray Keyser, the throng danced in the streets of Winooski while Hoff shouted from the roof of a car. Hoff, on the ballot as a Democrat, an Independent, and an Independent Democratic, won by 1,315 votes.

THE CASE FOR REALIGNMENT

Winooski is and was a working class city full of immigrants, French Canadians, and Catholics, and has been the heart and soul of the Democrat Party. It is still represented in the House by two Democrats. For the many years during the Republican rule, Catholics and French Canadians were discriminated against. They have never trusted Republicans. Over the last decade, the ruling Democrats have taken them for granted. They have moved far away from traditional conservative Democrat values.

In 2004, Democrats chose Peter Clavelle, Winooski native, for governor. Jim Douglas received 1,301 votes in Winooski, Clavelle 1,140. Franklin County in 1958 gave Leddy 63 percent of the vote and Stafford only 37 percent. In 2004, Franklin County gave Douglas 68 percent of the vote and Clavelle 29 percent.

REAGAN DEMOCRATS

British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said that the workingman is a natural conservative. True, think Reagan Democrats, think Winooski and Franklin County. Vermont’s liberal Democrat Party has left them behind. They await an accepting, rejuvenated Republican Party.

This is a Tectonic Shift. Democrats think that their sweeping victory in the House was an indication of support. The turnout in 2004 was 30 percent higher than the average of the previous five elections, 18 percent higher than the last two presidential turnouts. The Dems are there because of John Kerry and George Bush, not because their ideas are supported by or acceptable to the Conservative Democrat.

VERMONT DEAN OF THE PRESS

Not all agree with our assessment. Chris Graff, Bureau Chief for AP and dean our of local scribes, writes in his analysis of Douglas wishing to continue as governor, "With Douglas’ staying in place, Republicans no longer face the prospect of being shut out of major offices."

How does Governor Douglas, Senator Dubie, and Congresswoman Rainville sound?

JUST PUSH DELETE

Senator Jim Leddy, D-Chittenden and chair of the Senate Health and Welfare Committee, said that he is receiving four hundred emails a day. He does not have the time to read them. While he loves technology, if any of you want to offer advice, you best stop by for a visit. Hopefully you have a "complete, thoughtful, and comprehensive plan" in your back pocket.

DON’T SPEND YOUR TAX CUT JUST YET

Senators Bobby Starr, D-Northeast Kingdom, and Ed Flanagan, D-Chittenden, called for a progressive income tax hike to "generate enough money from those at the top who are saving money from Bush’s tax cut so that the rest of us do not have to bleed."

DREAMS DIE HARD

Senate pro tem Peter Welch, D-Windsor reported to his caucus that their "town meeting" in Windham County impressed all that "we were doing good work here." All except former Senate pro tem Peter Shumlin. Shumlin let it be known that "if he were in charge, we would really be getting something done," according to Welch.

UNINSURED FOR DUMMIES

According to Representative Harvey Smith, R-New Haven, Vermont has the best health care system in the United States. We have broader coverage and higher quality. We have the fewest without health insurance; we have the best coverage for children. And so forth. This does not satisfy the House ideologues locked in a 70’s time warp.

According to one reader, "The Vermont House passed health care lunacy. Looking at Vermont is like looking into an insane asylum. Those crazies may have the notion that somehow they ‘lead’ the country as the vanguard of ‘progressivity,’ but they are completely disconnected from the rest of the world and how it operates. They are elderly teenagers who never grew up.

"The reality is that these jarheads could not farm a window box. We need to concentrate on minimizing the collateral damage from their impending self-immolation."

THE PROBLEM

Vermont has about 62,000 uninsured. Twenty-seven thousand of those qualify for State financed coverage according to the State; however for whatever reason, they have just not signed up: pride, humiliation, too complicated, uninformed, or don’t care. Another fourteen thousand earn incomes above 300 percent of poverty (eight thousand earn more than 400 percent of poverty) and could afford to buy insurance; they choose not to. The final twenty-one thousand are the real "uninsured."

Everybody has access; if you are hurt or in need, just go to a hospital and you will be taken care of. The real challenge is how to control the unsustainable and dramatic cost increases in health care and still have a quality system. The Democrats plan is light on controlling the increasing cost of health care delivery.

VERMONT CHOWDER AND DEBATING SOCIETY

For this three percent of Vermonters without health insurance, the House wants to throw out our already best-in-the-nation system and socialize it. They forgot that every action has a reaction: when they took their trip to another dimension, they became irrelevant. As one insider told DPR, "The only people who do not know that the House Bill is dead are the Democrat House members." Even the House Republicans have more power: the Democrats cannot make laws. The Republicans can stop them.

Reportedly, Speaker Symington lost her cool at a recent conference committee meeting. She shouted at Senator Welch, "Why don’t you just join the Republican Party," and stormed out.

SEARS HAS THE ANSWER

When Senator Jane Kitchell, D-Caledonia-Orange, brought up yet another wacky House concept, Welch interrupted, "We can’t go near that."

Senator Dick Sears, D-Bennington, is a man of few words. Nonetheless, they usually suffice. "Why don’t we pass a unicameral legislature bill like Nebraska with only thirty senators." Senator Mazza, D-Chittenden North Hero and Grand Isle, and Senator John Campbell, D-Windsor, quickly seconded Sears.

Nebraska does have a unicameral legislature, the senate, with forty-nine current members.

POLITICS AND NUMBERS DO NOT ALWAYS MIX

Wannabe Matt Dunne, D-Windsor, made great political talk. "The Governor’s plan to raise money is unfair. Why tax insurance premiums? It is a double tax as these folks are already paying for health insurance. Why should they pay for folks who do not have health insurance. Why does he not accept the six percent payroll tax on those companies who don't provide health insurance to their employees?"

A look at a recent annual report of a Vermont company shows that payroll exceeds insurance premiums by 2,000 percent, payroll being $4,900,000 and insurance premiums being $242,000. The Republican plan is a three percent fee on premiums to be paid by insurance companies which in this case would be only $7,260. The Democrat plan is for a six percent payroll tax which in this case is $294,000. Yet the Democrats maintain that $294,000 paid by employees and employers is less harmful to Vermonters than $7,260 paid by insurance companies.

HISTORY 101, DRY CASK STORAGE

In the 1970’s the federal government promised nuclear waste storage facilities, one east of the Mississippi and one west. They came to Vermont checking out abandoned granite quarries in the Northeast Kingdom. Ever the environmentalist, Chair of the House Natural Resources and Energy Committee Jim Douglas created legislation to forbid any nuclear waste storage in Vermont except for Vermont Yankee.

When Entergy bought Vermont Yankee, they assumed that the waiver passed to them. Mike McShane of the Vermont Attorney General’s office disagreed. He gave the legislature the opportunity for a stick up. Entergy has agreed to a fixed price below market contract with Vermont’s utilities so they cannot pass on any fee the legislature extracts to you.

Senator Welch said regarding the extortion, "The House is determining the potential cost/risk assessment of dry cask storage to the community to determine what Entergy should pay." So how’s that? The place leaks, thousands die, what a life is worth times the probability of the leak? Now, go figure.

This is of course Democrat spin, which most Vermonters would call a whopper. The governor says that dry cask storage is safer than the current storage of spent fuel in cooling ponds.

FREEDOM WORKS

Senator Don Collins, D-Franklin and Chair of the Education Committee, introduced us to Freedom Works at their weekly caucus, "I do not know what Freedom Works stands for, but it does not stand for the truth."

Freedom Works is a month old in Vermont. Its executive director is Rob Roper of Stowe. Freedom Works sent out a post card to a list of approved day cares suggesting that it might be in their interest to check out the Legislature’s plan to provide taxpayer funded day care for three-year-olds and up. If day care is now “free” then why would you pay to send your children to daycare?

Not surprisingly, day care providers began to ask some questions. Not fair of course. Here’s clip from the Brattleboro Reformer:

Conservative (evil) group attacks child-care bill. Senate Bill 132 clarifies the early education funding process (the bill creates funding for statewide three-five year old day care).

Kim Friedman, organizing director for Kids Are Priority One, a statewide early education advocacy group, said, "Hundreds of people have worked on the Senate bill for 4 1/2 years. No one even knows who Freedom Works is. For them to pop up at this point of the debate is at best disappointing and worst, cowardly." (Who are they to question our wisdom and let those impacted know what we are doing?)

"I would have a lot more respect for them if they contacted me," Collins said. (He would not want to talk with voters or day care providers, only lobbyists.)

Article: http://www.reformer.com/Stories/0,1413,102~8862~2861288,00.html

THE PERFECT WIFE

President George Bush described his wife Laura to author Ann Gerhart, "I have the best wife for the line of work that I am in. I find her to be the perfect wife of a governor."

Gerhart exposes the twice told tale of "Jim Beam or me." In Election 2004 written by Evan Thomas, "It had been Laura who many years earlier had delivered an ultimatum to her husband when he was drinking heavily: ‘It’s either Jim Beam or me.’"

Not true says Laura. His abstinence began shortly after his DUI in Kennebunkport. He had a long conversation with Reverend Billy Graham. Weeks later, family and friends gathered at the Broadmoor Hotel in Colorado Springs to celebrate his birthday. The alcohol flowed. "Bush woke up for his ritual run feeling pretty rotten. Bush quit drinking without any fanfare. ‘I don't remember any announcement.’ Laura said. ‘We joked later, saying that he got the bar bill and that is why he quit. There were jokes that I said it was either me or Jack Daniels. I didn't say that. I think George said that. He made it into a funny story.’"

The 188 page book is a quick and easy read, opening a window into the President, the First Lady, and their romance. All of Laura’s friends from Midland are Democrats and according to her friends Laura is a liberal Democrat herself. The only imperfection according to Gerhart is that Laura is a permissive parent.

HOW ADULTS BEHAVE

One of Laura’s contributions was the Texas Book Festival. It was "an annual free weekend of readings and author appearances. The first festival generated more than $260,000 from the sales of books and stuff. Each year the festival has grown, and is now considered one of the premier literary events in the Southwest. By 2002 more than seven hundred authors had participated and the event had contributed $1,430,000 to Texas public libraries."

"Laura was very involved with author selection, she signed all the letters inviting them, she came to every meeting. The authors were stunned that she had read their works and could discuss them. Yet the writers’ attitude was sort of a deer-in-the-headlights quality. A Republican first lady? Should I go to that? Is it right? Such a thing had never happened before. Even Democrats did not invite writers to the mansion.

"Novelist Sarah Bird stood and said, ‘I just have to say how impressed I am that you all would invite a raging liberal like me.’"

HOW CHILDREN BEHAVE

When she moved to Washington, Laura continued supporting writers, holding three literary symposiums. "She chose authors who represented a diversity of gender and race."

She organized a National Book Festival drawing 25,000 to the National Mall creating the world’s largest bookstore. Organizing her fourth symposium, she intended to highlight poetry as poetry had comforted her during the fighting in Afghanistan. The invitations went out to poets.

An obscure Washington poet, Sam Hamill, decided that an in-your-face protest was the best answer to Laura’s invitation. Upon learning of his protest, her office offered the following: "While Mrs. Bush respects and believes in the right of all Americans to express their opinions, she too has opinions, and believes that it would be inappropriate to turn what is intended to be a literary event into a political forum." And thus cancelled this and all future literary events during the Bush presidency.

SO PROUD TO BE A VERMONTER

Writers for millennium who wished to make a political point have used satire, irony, and subtle misdirection, producing volumes which have made it pass the censors. Think of Marc Anthony’s speech praising Brutus or works of Pushkin or Bulgakov. Our poets had no such skills or were too puerile to use them. Denied the White House, they of course repaired to Manchester, Vermont to read their works to nobody.

In doing so, they deprived writers of a patron at the highest level, readers a chance to hear and meet authors, and booksellers the opportunity to sell thousands of books. What a tragedy. We are so proud that Vermont could have played such a critical role.

SENATOR JEFFORDS

»» Suzanne Butterfield: Regarding Senator Jeffords, you said what many of us had suspected. I do think that the observations shared by the DPR made the difference in the timing of his announcement (which would have come later rather than sooner).

»» Laura Brueckner, Waterbury Center: Are we sure Jeffords ISN'T running? Wait a while -- he may change his mind! Will you write about Jeffords' Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993? Or, will you join the rest of Vermont's media - telling us how wonderful his service has been? "The proof is in 'da puddin!"

A VERMONT SENATOR FOR VERMONTERS PLEASE

»» Bill Adamson, Charlotte: The fact that Sanders first move is to crank up the out-of-state hard left funding machine should be seized upon as an issue by whoever becomes the GOP nominee. We can't count on the fawning, groveling, ideologically sympathetic mainstream Vermont media to point out the Brooklyn native's aversion to campaigns funded by Vermonters.

FINALLY A VOICE?

»» L.A. Leonard, Rutland Town: According to the Dwinell Report, instant voting passed the Senate. On election day 2006 if one can provide a local utility bill or bank statement one can vote. Does this mean Vermont residents can also vote on local issues in Vermont town's where they may own a second home even if they have voted in another Vermont town where their permanent address is? This would be a major step in fairness.

HOUSE SINGLE PAYER HEALTH SCHEME

»» Dr. Charles Ian Robinson, Iowa City, Iowa: I enjoyed the latest addition more than any in quite a while, it was more focused and less cute. Recent editions lately have tended to lose me. I agree with the writer who suggested more factual reporting and less inflaming rhetoric.

I was reading the Free Press reporting on the health care bill and I kept wondering what the actual details were, what the funding was, how it would be distributed. Finally, they reported the reality, the bill HAS no details, it just sets up public comment and then a huge new state bureaucracy. Well, that's all well and good but the issue is clearly not even possible to address at the state level because all the real culprits are organized at the national and international level and our 630,000 population is non-existent to them.

California is full of liberals too, but large as they are, they don't try anything as stupid as state run single payer medicine. The Vermont House may as well write a bill which sets up public comment and a state bureaucracy to solve our energy problems with cold fusion, the results would be the same, the problem cannot be solved by public comment and a new bureaucracy.

If Vermonters realize how far removed from reality their new crop of legislators is and how much chaos they would cause without a Governor's veto, they might regret their legislative votes.

Douglas started sounding more and more liberal. I'd rather have a moderate Democrat governor who shares common ground with Republicans than a liberal Republican who likes or accepts Act 60, thinks Jeffords and Sanders are great and useful public servants, and that Teddy Bears manufacturers are worthy targets for political assassination. I hate liberalism even more when it flows from Republican moderates.

GMO CAUTION

»» Lyle Edwards, Westfield: As a farmer in this state who supports The Farmer Protection Act, there's nothing wrong with not supporting genetically engineered seeds. The jury is not out on GMO's.

THEY LIKE US

»» Ed Wilson, Morrisville: Nice call on Jeffords, now maybe you will do some stock market picks? I really look forward to the Report, thanks for all the work that you do.

»» State Representative Daryl Pillsbury: Thanks for the report and your thoughts. I liked it.

»» Michael Seely, Dorset: Very enlightening. Enjoyed your (informed) speculation on the upcoming elections. Thanks for both.

»» Lang Durfee, Bethel: Great Newsletter. Keep it up.

»» Lew Burridge, Ripton: Thanks for doing such a great job. No better way for one to keep informed.

»» Margaret Dwinell, Montpelier: Great report. Of course the part I liked the best was why you were not running for office.

»» Kevin McCarthy, Shelburne: Keep up the great work. Hope that we can find some good electable candidates!

»» Corky Nielsen, Montpelier: Good work.

RIGHT TO LIVE

"Personally, I'd rather live in a country that goes into an anguished national debate over pulling the plug on a lone woman than one that blissfully vacations on the beach oblivious to 15,000 elderly cooked to well-done back in Paris." --Victor Davis Hanson, NRO, April 29, 2005

PARLEZ VOUS FRANCAIS?

"Waking up from anxious dreams, I discovered that I dreaded going to work. All I wanted to do was cheat on my perfect wife, ignore my children, stab my oldest friend in the back, and smoke a cigarette. I realized that I was slowly becoming French." --Denis Boyles, National Review, April 29, 2005

GROWTH, HOPE AND OPPORTUNITY

"The favorite Democratic explanation is that the red staters are hicks who have been blinded by righteousness. But middle-class Americans don't simply cast ballots for Republicans. They also vote with their feet, which is why blue states and old Democratic cities are losing population to red states and Republican exurbs. People are moving there precisely because of economic reasons -- more jobs, affordable houses and the lower taxes offered by Republican politicians." --John Tierney, New York Times, May 2, 2005

IF HE IS FOR IT, I AGIN’ IT

"We are at one of those phases in our national affairs where, if President Bush sauntered outside and commented on the blueness of the sky, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid would call a press conference and score the president's appalling sense of color!" --Bill Murchison, Townhall.com, May 3, 2005

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/billmurchison/bm20050503.shtml

SAY IT AIN'T SO

"The N.E.A. [teachers' union) has misrepresented the [No Child Left Behind] law to the public from the start, and the primary aim of its suit is to throw out the baby with the bath water. The union doesn't want a better No Child Left Behind Act; it wants to make the law disappear entirely." --New York Times, Editorial, 4/22/05

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/22/opinion/22fri2.html?ex=1271822400&en=2346d8c24c673a93&ei=5090

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