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DOING THE RIGHT THING IS NOT ALWAYS EASY

Jim Jeffords announced that he had run his last political race. A successful politician in Vermont long before most Vermonters were born, he served during two centuries and five decades. Jeffords did the right thing for his state, his constituents, his family, and himself by his announcement to step down in early 2007 when his terms ends. Transition is never easy. Thanks.

IT IS OFF TO THE RACES

It will be worse than musical chairs, more like demolition derby. Who runs for senate? Sanders says that he is in, giving him a bigger stage and a larger purse to share with his family. Remember, charity begins at home. Soon he will be overtaking the Delay embarrassment in the family pocket lining competition.

THE SENATOR

Jim Douglas may run if it becomes a three-way race, less probable in a two-way race. The big question is: will the Democrats, waiting since Jeffords and Leahy were elected way back in the mid seventies, give flower to their ambition or allow the prize to go to the socialist from Brooklyn? Hard to imagine that they will sit on their hands.

If it is a three-way race, Sanders realizing that he cannot win, will do a Peter Clavelle and becomes a Democrat. In this scenario, there will be a knock down Democrat primary. May the socialist win; Douglas would have an easier time. If Douglas does not run, look for Senate pro tem Peter Welch, D-Windsor, to run for the Democrat nomination.

AMBIVALENCE

Why would Douglas want to run? He and his wife have deep roots in Vermont. He has the perks of an executive. He has a big voice in Vermont versus one lonely voice in a hundred in Washington. He has already ruled out running for president in his lifetime. Who needs the hassle?

Douglas did not stay in the Vermont House when he was majority leader in the 70’s. He chose instead to join the executive branch and then moved on to Secretary of State, Treasurer and now Governor.

When he ran for the United States Senate in 1992 against Patrick Leahy, he lamented having to make fundraising calls night after night. He was frustrated that after preparing himself on every issue, the only one which moved the polls was that Leahy had voted himself a pay raise. Petty stuff and Douglas is not a petty guy. Hard to imagine that it will be any more fun this time around.

The Governor’s office is being inundated by calls from the political whores whose greed is unsurpassed, aka political consultants. They are drooling over a $10,000,000 senate race. It will pale when compared to the $30,000,000 South Dakota senate race in 2004, but not bad. It will be no fun dealing with that menagerie.

Seeking a clue to his thoughts for the future, we asked him at his weekly press conference if he had sat for his official portrait. He said, “I hope that will be a long, long time from now.”

RIDING THE PINE

Chaffing on the bench is the five million dollar man and Boston Celtic draft choice, Richard Tarrant, head of IDX in South Burlington. He has let it be known that he will personally spend $5,000,000 to buy the seat and that only a run by Douglas will keep him out of the race.

We wish him well, but we expect an investment in Pan American Airlines might do better. We watched him not work the room at the recent VTGOP fundraising event in Burlington. Terribly shy, aloof, or inept for a political wannabe, he did not meet or greet. He was very engaged with Mrs. Tarrant, certainly a worthy trait, but she only has one vote.

THE CONGRESSMAN

The socialist has moved onto greener pastures. We do not wish him well. Senator Matt Dunne, D-Windsor, told us that he will run for the House seat vacated by Sanders. Dunne is formidable. He was a state representative in his twenties, went off to Washington for a Clinton appointment in the late 90’s, then returned when a Windsor County senate seat opened. He quickly raised a ton of money, and won going away. Smart, personable, cheerful, handsome, and hardworking, a chap who values a strong economy, he will be hard to beat.

Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie will not run for reelection and is a probable in the Congressional sweepstakes. Dubie is charming, successful at the polls, and well liked. Will Clavelle or Anthony Pollina make it a three way race? We can only hope the special Dubie luck continues; he’ll need it.

THE GOVERNOR

If Douglas moves on, Senator Peter Welch, D-Windsor, will run for governor. He not only just attended Franklin County’s 39th Maple Fest this weekend; he went on Saturday when big name politicians such as Douglas and Sanders would not be there, increasing his visibility while flipping pancakes.

Dubie could try to step up but unlikely; he has Potomac Fever. Walt Freed said that he would like to be governor, as has slimed down Treasurer Jeb Spaulding. Bearded Jeb looks like Abe Lincoln, having lost over thirty pounds on the Suzanne Somers Diet. Though Jeb loves his job, he would also have to consider taking a chance at the big prize if it comes up.

THE LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

Senator John Campbell, D-Windsor, “has it bad.” Has what? That would be Winooski Fever. Gotta be a bigger deal. Ego and all. He has all but announced. The Republican bench is thin. Auditor Randy Brock will stay put, the smart, aggressive and savvy four Musketeers in the senate, Republican Senators Kevin Mullin, Mark Shepard, Wendy Wilton, and Hull Maynard, are not quite ready for prime time. Minority leader Peg Flory and former minority leader Connie Houston are not either.

Notice that the entire Windsor County senate team is moving on. Gee, you would think that with no incumbents maybe the Grand Old Party could pick up a seat or two. Cheryl Rivers, Ben Ptashnik, and Dick McCormick are talking about ascending to their rightful spot in history. Rivers might be disappointed having worn out her welcome in 2004, running as an also ran in the light governor race.

THE SHARK POOL

Oh, quite the crowd here. The biggest fish is Peter Shumlin. Shumlin is the natural: talented, gregarious, hard not to like, a good fund raiser, and a great liar. He was going to run for Congress in 2000 but blinked. He was going to run for governor in 2002 but blinked. He lost the 2002 Lieutenant Governor Race in a three-way battle with Dubie, Pollina and his libido. We have not heard the last of the natural.

Attorney General Bill Sorrell is asking, can I? A talented behind-the-scenes politician, he has no competitive elective political experience. Though an FOW, (Friend of Waldo), it is hard to imagine that he can unseat any of the above.

Doug Racine is probably done. Believe it or not, he is working in the family business, Willie Racine Jeep Isuzu, Inc. He has even lobbied senators for workman’s compensation reform. Welcome to the real world.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

Howard Dean is too big for his britches to play in our tiny sandbox. That is something that we can be grateful for. Jack McMullen will not be back; twice a loser and made poorer financially and politically with each go, statewide elective office is not his milieu. Skip Vallee, gas mogul, former Chittenden County senate candidate and VTGOP bigwig, and current a Bush cowboy, ranger, minuteman, stallion or whatever, is rumored to soon be doing a “John Bolton.” If so, we predict that Senator Patrick Leahy will not lead the filibuster against his nomination.

Democrat Deb Markowitz told DPR years back that Secretary of State was merely a stepping stone. She now correctly thinks that her current position is the place to be. Having just double crossed the town clerks on instant voting, first promising them one election cycle under their belts with the new statewide voter list before instant registration takes over, she bowed to pressure to agree to implement instant voting before the 2006 election. Not wise.

Senator Ed Flanagan, D-Chittenden, who has run statewide eight times, is a wildcard. He seems to enjoy being a state senator. Former Auditor Elizabeth Ready seems done, put down for the count by her bicycle and her conduct. Former Chittenden County senate candidate Peter Freyne is expected to bet on the races, not enter the races.

Nor will your editor, loser for Auditor of Accounts in 1998. You and our children are too much fun. Former John Bloomer appears thrilled to have thrown off the yoke of legacy and be out of politics. Jeff Wennberg who ran for Congress in days of yore could be a wildcard.

General Martha Rainville, Commanding General of the Vermont National Guard, is being pushed by Senator Patrick Leahy to enter the senate race. But as Satirist Finley Peter Dunne’s Mr. Dooley said a hundred years ago, “Politics ain’t beanbag.” Few have successfully transferred military skills into political skills and then only when riding the back of the publicity brought on by huge military success.

But who knows? Senator Jim Condos closed this week’s Democrat Senate caucus by saying, “A future caucus will decide who runs for what.”

MY BUCKET HAS A HOLE IN IT

At the weekly Democrat Senate Caucus, Appropriations Chair Senator Susan Bartlett, D-Lamoille, hit the nail on the head, “We are facing a whole lot of very difficult choices; that is the financial box that we are in. This budget is going to have negative impacts and we are going to have a couple of years of that. This is particularly frustrating in that Vermont’s economy is doing okay and we are still in a crisis.”

Right. But does the legislature spend time asking why? No. When all around the world, countries and states work hard to craft tax policies, make infrastructure investment, and develop technology to attract investment, Vermont does none of these. Worse, they do things to impede and discourage investment.

SPEND MORE ANYWAY

You know the list; unsustainable spending on health care and education, high tax burden, a knotty permit process not competitive in the marketplace, the highest energy costs made higher by the so-called renewable energy bill, high workman’s compensation insurance, and so on. And these are the good times.

A reader wrote, “Politics here consists of competing visions from 1974. You would expect that from the paleo-left; but the right is throwing away its biggest advantages in trying to compete and offer something better.” Maybe the best strategy is to let the Democrats do all they wish and quicken that moment when all those chickens come home to roost. Let the unsustainable spending grow till total meltdown and start over. Instead of the GOP trying to make legislation less bad, why not help make it really stink up the place. The risk is: who would still be here? The halt and the lame.

To paraphrase Mark Steyn in the April 30th Spectator, “Vermont’s Democrats sound a bit like those Japanese still holed up in the jungle forty years after the war ended. It’s over. What is happening around the world these days makes it very hard to pull up the drawbridge, unless you are already fenced off, starving and sitting in the dark. Like North Korea.”

RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY

Instant Voting, which has passed the Senate, may provide the answer. On Election Day, November, 2006, if you can provide a local utility bill or a local bank statement, you can vote. Wow! Is that great or what? Don’t fight it.

Finally, taxation with representation. For the thirty odd percent of our non-resident property tax payers, you can now vote. At least those who have electricity wired into their second home or condo. VTGOP, start your engines, turn out that vote.

DO YOU KNOW THE SECRET HANDSHAKE?

A couple of weeks back, we wrote of the abrupt change in the nature of the Vermont Democrat Caucus, from open to guarded, from revealing to conspiratorial, from consequential to entertaining. “We are not going to talk about that here, let’s talk amongst ourselves.” When and where, we asked ourselves?

Years ago under Walt Freed’s leadership and while in the minority, the Republican House Caucus began meeting in private, not in the Capitol or in Montpelier, but in the privacy of Berlin’s finest watering holes. The press howled, tried to crash the party, gave up but always lamented the secretive ways of VTGOP.

Senate Democrats now are meeting privately in the evenings too, “by invitation only,” within the walls of the Capitol. The problem with their meeting is not just that the press is not invited; the problem is that meetings in our state capitol building are to be “open to the public” according to Sergeant-at-Arms Kermit Spaulding. The mainstream media has yet to complain.

IT AIN’T EXACTLY SO

“Number crunchers joke that economic statistics are like bikinis: What they reveal is important, but what they conceal is vital,” wrote Alex Fax recently in the Moscow Times.

We wrote that the Treasurer’s office was a bit non-competitive in the abandoned property sweepstakes. Though true, there are reasons. In past few years, some mutual insurance companies have gone private. In doing so, they had to divide up their assets among the former stakeholders, the policy owners, and reimburse them. Many were long gone from their records so they made a less than exemplary effort to find them, turning over that task to state treasurers from coast to coast.

Secondly, the legislature changed the holding period for lost property from five years to three years. These two events created a one time 660 percent increase in unclaimed property at the Vermont Treasurer’s office in fiscal year 2004. Their 2005 fiscal year returned property is up almost 300 percent.

Vermont has joined thirty-three other states in a national web site for unclaimed property. Go to http://www.missingmoney.com to find out what you are owed.

HUNTING WITHOUT A LICENSE

Senator Matt Dunne, younger by a generation than any of his Democrat colleagues, went hunting in Texas recently without leaving Vermont. Going online with credit card in hand, he used the joy stick to move a stationery rifle in Texas, placing the cross hairs on a wandering deer, “pulled” the trigger, and alas, has “enough meat in the freezer for at least a month,” according to the proud marksman.

Do you believe that tale? Check out http://www.live-shot.com

THE RAIL OUT OF TOWN

Representative Tom Delay is sitting upon the rail out of town. Who knows if and when the train begins to move? One of the complaints is about Traveling Tom. The facts belie the charge. For the period 2000-4, the top five “travelers” were all Democrats, Senators Breaux and Biden, Representatives Ford, Waters, and Frank. As James Watt would have said, throw in a Republican and they would have a quorum. Delay is a piker, ranking only 114th on the lists of abusers.

THE TRUTH WILL OUT

It was an interesting phenomenon. The Jeffords resignation story began with our reporting his confused appearance on Switchboard, broadcasted live on Vermont Public Radio on March 22nd. Listening to that program twice, we believed that something was seriously wrong with Jeffords’s health prohibiting him from well representing Vermont and Vermonters for the next seven and half years. We so informed our readers.

Jeffords’s health quickly became a national issue, the power of the Internet. The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN and New York Times all weighed in, expanding the Switchboard appearance to include an incident whereby Jeffords had gone to the House Chamber thinking that he was in the Senate Chamber, was clearly lost, and was led to his Chamber.

In his speech last week announcing the dropping of his reelection bid, he acknowledged his health problems. “There have been questions about my health, and that is a factor as well. I am feeling the aches and pains that come when you reach seventy. My memory fails me on occasion...” He took no questions and was escorted from the room in a bubble of staff.

THE MEGAPHONE

National media acknowledged our role in moving the story. This from Fox News, Brit Hume’s Political Grapevine:

Predicting Retirement: Vermont Independent Senator Jim Jeffords's retirement announcement this week came as no surprise to Vermont pundit James Dwinell, who predicted earlier this month that Jeffords would not seek re-election in 2006 due to health concerns. But it was apparently a big surprise to Jeffords' own staff. A spokesman for the Senator attacked the rumors as partisan bitterness from Republicans still angry over the Senator's defection from the party in 2001.

Link: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,154368,00.html

The Wall Street Journal’s Best of the Web wrote:

Green Mountain Sage: Senator Jim Jeffords's retirement announcement did not come as a surprise to everyone. James Dwinell, a Vermonter who publishes the Dwinell Political Report, ran an item on April 3 titled "Jeffords Will Drop Out of 2006 Race.”

”That is an opinion, not a fact. Something is wrong with Jim Jeffords’s health. That is an opinion, not a fact. Listen in to his appearance on Vermont Public Radio's Switchboard program...”

We noted that interview in the Best of the Web on March 24. The Valley News subsequently quoted Jeffords spokesman Erik Smulson, who lashed out at Dwinell:

“Smulson dismissed Dwinell's prediction and said efforts to question Jeffords' health are motivated by Republicans still bitter over Jeffords' decision to leave the party. Turncoat Jeffords clearly did not work for them. Now they've sunk even lower," Smulson said. "Senator Jeffords is in excellent health, and he is looking forward to waging a spirited campaign."

Dwinell stood his ground, declaring on April 11 that with Smulson's defense, "spin became lies." Nine days later, Jeffords announced that he was retiring for reasons of health, including mental health. A tip of the hat to Dwinell for getting it right.

Link: http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110006587

SENATOR JEFFORDS

»» James Gregoire, Fairfield: You were right on in predicting Jefford's retirement. Now the GOP needs to find a charismatic candidate that will have a fighting chance of winning the seat in '06. In my opinion, we can't afford to lose Douglas as governor so other than my favorite Republican, Brian Dubie, who do we have that fits the bill? I sense an ego fest in the works as the upity ups throw their hats into the ring. We can't win a Senate seat with 25%.

»» Anne McClaughry, Kirby: I think congratulations are in order for your prescient, bold reporting about Jim Jeffords. You accurately saw ahead to this week's headlines. You predicted it, took the rash of criticism that followed, and now can feel justifiably proud of having seen the truth of things and revealed it.

»» Stewart Skrill, Randolph Center: It was sad to learn about Sen. Jeffords’ wife being ill with cancer. It is commendable of him not to seek re-election in order to be with her. However, isn't it strange that the Senator, who is so concerned would wait eighteen months before spending time with his ailing wife?

Sen. Jeffords, as we all remember, abandoned the Republican Party based upon his principles. His actions caused considerable disruption and expense to the United States and disappointment to those loyal supporters who financed his re-election in 2000.

Sen. Jeffords should resign now, spend more time with his wife and family, while he still has the ability to do so. Why punish us Vermonters any more by staying in office?

HOUSE SINGLE PAYER HEALTH SCHEME

»» William E Minsinger, M.D., Randolph: A more appropriate name for the Democratic Health plan is "Universal Medicaid" - What is being offered is not much different than forcing taxpayers into Medicaid. As the costs go up and the deficits appear health care will be rationed as is done every year to solve the present day Medicaid budget crisis. Of course teachers and state workers can "opt out" so the average Vermonter will be paying more and more for less care than they now get while still supporting excellent insurance benefits for those "public" employees. The Democratic plan has the potential of worsening the present "crisis" while bankrupting the state.

»» Francis 'Shep' Jones, Bennington: I am most distressed by the concept promoted in this Health Care bill. I can find little, if any, credible suggestion that health care will be improved for anyone, and no one has claimed that it will cost less money than the present system. On the other hand, I see the destruction of the superb health care infrastructure now present in the state. Socialized medicine has in all cases led to loss of choice and freedom. Determination of what services will be delivered, and even more critically when they will be delivered becomes a bureaucratic decision with little consideration of individual patient needs.

The economic impact of the proposal will be disastrous. Businesses locate where they can find the skilled workers they need at a reasonable cost. Skilled workers and executives will not move to or stay in a place where their families have to settle for a "one size fits all - when the state gets around to letting us schedule it" health care system, even if they did not mind the confiscatory tax rates. And we already have trouble recruiting the jobs and doctors we need. These observations only scratch the surface of the minefield encompassed in this legislation. Please grant it an early and merciful death.

»» D. Jacobs, Guilford: I've been receiving your newsletter for years now and have been glad to get a different take on issues in our government than what is represented by the media. However I have noticed a change in your presentation of information.

Wasn't it as repugnant when the Republicans 'used' Terry Schiavo as it is for Howard Dean to do the same? If we lose one Republican representative are we really going to fall into an 'abyss'? You seem to be focused more on inflaming than informing. Perhaps you feel that it is necessary, but you've just added one more match to the collection that seems intent on polarizing people instead of helping develop informed citizenry who can hold conversations about issues, not shouting matches. We get too many one-sided 'sound bites' as is (from both parties). I want to act on facts not fear and I'll feel more secure if I know my fellow Vermonters are doing the same.

VERMONT BEING RIPPED OFF

»» Martin Harris, Addison: Having the lowest student-teacher ratio in the galaxy doesn't make Vermont the best, it identifies us as the stupidest. Look in your National Digest of Educational Statistics for all the states which achieve the same poor NAEP test scores (typically, 230 out of 500) and do so at far less cost. Utah, for example, has an annual per pupil cost half of ours, and tests scores, adjusted for minority presence (a lot there, almost none here) are about the same. The reason? Their average class size is 22. Duh.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

»» John McClaughry, Kirby: Regarding putting legislators on the state board of education: This is a very bad idea, but this [putting legislators on state boards] was common practice before 1972, especially the Highway Board. Gov. Davis got rid of it. I can't see that it is unconstitutional. I am almost certain that members of Boards are not "Officers". Neither are legislators. Executive branch employees (at least including tax department collectors, determined in a famous case involving Buck's Furniture) and judges, are officers.

DPR MAKES "BEST OF THE WEB" AND FOX NEWS

»» Bill from Massachusetts (another socialist paradise): I enjoyed your newsletter after seeing it cited in Best of the Web. Keep up the good work, you'll never go wrong with the truth...

»» Howard Dachs, Westford: Congratulations! You made the show "Opinion Journal, Best of the Web! Thank you for doing a great job.

»» Scott Berkowitz, Washington, D.C.: Dear Mr. Sage, Very nice write up [in Best of the Web]. Congratulations.

THEY LIKE US

»» Chris Robbins, Saint Johnsbury: Your newsletter is still the most reliable source of political news in Vermont. Keep it up.

»» Bernier Mayo, St. Johnsbury: My DPR is finally arriving, and I can breathe, again. Keep up the tell-it-like-it-is reporting and analysis. Subscription following by hard mail.

*** QUOTABLE ***

THE CANADIAN SOLUTION

“Quebec's Health Department announced this week that in the last year some 600 Quebecers had died from C. difficile, a bacterium acquired in hospital. In other words, if, say, Bill Clinton had gone for his heart bypass to the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, he would have had the surgery, woken up the next day swimming in diarrhea and then died.

”One thousand Americans are killed in 18 months in Iraq, and it's a quagmire. One thousand Quebecers are killed by insufficient hand-washing in their filthy, decrepit health care system, and kindly progressive (Vermonters) can't wait to bring it south of the border.”

-- Mark Steyn, Chicago Sun Times, October 24, 2004

Still available here: http://washingtontimes.com/commentary/20041024-110608-1806r.htm

MEMORY LANE

“In Britain, they talk of colonial administrators ‘going native’. Jim Jeffords has made the journey in reverse: he’s a Vermont native who’s gone flatlander. The old-time Yankee virtues that enabled his forebears to carve out a home in these hills 200 years ago were long ago abandoned by Jeffords: he favors the federalization of education, big-time entitlements, a heavy regulatory hand on almost everything. The pundits say that just demonstrates how in tune Jim is with the new, ‘liberal’ Vermont. But even Vermont isn’t that liberal. If he were to distance himself any further, he’d be campaigning from Bermuda.”

-- Mark Steyn, The Spectator, June 6th 2001

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The mission of the Dwinell Political Report is to give readers another view of the news that is refreshing, provocative and sometimes irreverent.