THE DWINELL
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THE DWINELL POLITICAL REPORT
 April 26, 2007   Vol. 8, No. 04 
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*** NEWS AND ANALYSIS ***

CRASH GOES THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM

For months, we heard from the media that their buddies in the legislature had a veto-proof majority, in each house; hooray, now we can march to socialism or maybe oblivion, you choose.

Clang, chink, crack, crumble, crash; the assumption shattered: the veto-proof majority wasn't. Governor Douglas vetoed the budget adjustment act; the house moved to override, but alas Jim Douglas knows how to count. And amazingly, the GOP caucus decided against being a group of potted plants and voted in unison to support their governor, all forty-nine reporting for duty, to support their governor, and an interesting trio joined them, an independent, a Progressive, and a Democrat followed suit.

The only fumble was from one who forgot he switched his jersey, from politico to policy wonk. In a confusing bridge too far, the Secretary of Transportation mortgaged his credibility to chat up a rejected intersection and a vote for his boss in the same breath. Representative Fitzgerald of Saint Albans was not amused, neither was the speaker. Calmer heads prevailed, the boys shook hands and buried the hatchet.


MEMORY LANE

Recall a decade ago when C&S Grocers of Brattleboro was one of the state's largest employers? They distributed groceries. It was a venerable company founded by Israel Cohen and Abraham Siegel in 1918.

President Roger Cohen was willing to build his own exit at his own expense just north of the last Brattleboro exit on I-91, an exit to keep his trucks out of Brattleboro's streets and neighborhoods while picking up groceries from his new distribution center. He designed and was ready build a "campus" for his corporate offices nearby his planned distribution center.

A war for the groceries took place. It was not a hundred years war, but it was too long, too bloody, and too personal, and in the end, Mr. Cohen took his campus just across the Connecticut River to Keene, New Hampshire and built hundreds of thousands of square feet of distribution in Massachusetts.

Some say that then Governor Howard Dean offered his first son in asking C&S to stay, and the Poohbahs of Brattleboro offered him the key to the city. Others say that the unwashed rabble, aka hippies, tormented C&S with delay, hostility, and lies. They complained about the noise, diesel fumes, and a lack of trust in the Cohens, a privilege offered them by Vermont's permitting process.

WHERE HAVE ALL THE JOBS GONE?

They moved, they built, and they prospered. They are now New England's largest and America's second largest food wholesaler.

Sales last year were $18,000,000,000, last year's growth was 18.4%, they employ 20,000, an increase of 11.1% over the previous year. Somehow, we ran them off. Think of the lost tax base: property tax for their warehouse and campus, fuel tax, registration fees, corporate income tax, personal income tax, and so forth. How many programs could those taxes have supported?

Now comes Speaker Gaye Symington writing in the Free Press that Catamount Health Plan will somehow inspire entrepreneurs and also create savings so that Vermont can re-build its infrastructure. And you just shake your head in amazement. "We can promote innovation and entrepreneurship if we secure health care access for all..."

WORKER'S PARADISE

We all know that Vermont is a worker's paradise. After all, we have America's only socialist senator, a socialist mayor of our largest city, the most liberal legislature in the county trying to impeach the president, strong public unions, universal health care, free heath and dental care for children whose parents earn less than three times poverty, the lowest teacher/student ratio in America, and on and on.

It was therefore a bit of a jolt to learn from AOL News that Vermont may well not be a worker's paradise. In Salary.com's 2006-2007 Employee Satisfaction and Retention Survey Vermont finished last. In the "least satisfied worker by state" category, Vermont is dead last. In answering the job retention question, only twenty-seven point three percent of workers said that they were "likely to stay." Meanwhile, South Dakota had the highest retention rating at seventy-two point seven.

LEAST Satisfied Workers by State
Rank   State  % of Workers Likely to Stay
 1     Vermont       27.3%
 2     Kentucky      28.4%
 3     Alaska        28.6%
 4     North Dakota  28.6%
 5     Montana       33.3%
 

MOST Satisfied Workers by State
Rank   State  % of Workers Likely to Stay
 1     South Dakota  72.7%
 2     Oklahoma      56.6%
 3     Nebraska      50.9%
 4     Minnesota     50.2%
 5     Nevada        48.1%

Source: Salary.com 2006/07 Employee Job Satisfaction & Retention Survey

Summary and more rankings here: http://aol.salary.com/careersandwork/salary/articles/atcl_careeradvice.asp?atc=593


HAPPY HEN HEAVEN

Senator Hinda Miller, D-Chittenden, after seeing "stressed" chickens in an egg farm in Quebec, is demanding that Vermont hens be happy, via Senate bill S. 202 or house bill H. 311. She is not so concerned about Vermont's workers. "Only happy hens lay eggs for Vermont Law School" was a front-page headline in a recent Herald of Randolph story. Vermont's motto will be changed from "freedom and unity" to "unhappy workers but happy hens."

Go to: http://www.ourherald.com/news/2007/0405/Front_Page/f08.html for more.

For discussion of Senate bill S.202 and house bill H.311 go to: http://www.truenorthradio.com/editorials/editorial_04_17c_07.shtml


VERMONT IS FIRST ONCE AGAIN

CNNMoney.com recently listed the 2007 tax friendly states. Once again Vermont finished at the bottom, hitting up their citizens with more taxes per capita that any other state. They quoted two sources, The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Census Bureau and the Tax Foundation.

You can quibble with the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau and Tax Foundation's methodology, each now part of the right wing conspiracy, so maybe Vermont is fifth worst as Ms. Teachout of the Joint Fiscal Office says. In any event Vermont is a highly taxed state with very unhappy workers.

Just to help recruiting new business, read this dispatch about finishing number one in taxes: "Thursday, April 05, 2007, By Patricia Sabatini, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "Good cheese aside, be glad you don't live in Vermont."

Read it and weep: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07095/775243-28.stm


THAT GREAT METROPOLITAN AREA

Forbes.com published their 200 small metropolitan area survey this month. Greater Burlington with a "population" of 206,000 finished fifty-ninth. Though Burlington did well with the crime, education, and culture ratings, out of the 200 areas surveyed, they finished 167th in cost of doing business, 156th in the cost of living, 133rd in job growth and 105th in net migration.

For a chance to see the future of Burlington and Vermont, read the "Booby Prize" by Helen Coster from Forbes.com on Santa Cruz. Highlights include, "This kind of whimsical, lethargic atmosphere has cemented the image of Santa Cruz (pop. 250,000) as a bohemian utopia by the sea. But if this is paradise, how come no one is coming here to work?

"The cost of living is 41% higher than the U.S. average. Santa Cruz's citizenry is a squabbling, self-canceling mix of the rich, service workers from restaurants and hotels, and 15,000 navel-contemplating university students. (Courses in the UC catalog include 'Bob Dylan as Poet' and 'Politics of Obesity.') Everyone is an activist. Petitions are forever being drawn up, fists raised and shaken. To get to the barricades here, you have to take a number.

"Says Chamber of Commerce Executive Director William Tysseling: "People will suffer a lot to live here." There's your next Chamber of Commerce slogan."

Go to: http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2007/0423/089.html


UNHAPPY FEET

Governor Douglas said today that he had just learned that for the first time in Vermont's history more people are leaving the state than moving to the state. He spoke of a good friend of his who recently decamped for Arizona, explaining to him that it was the sunshine and low taxes that made him do it. People have voted with their feet.

Businesses are voting with their feet too. Recall the O'Neal Report's conclusion five years ago: there are no economic reasons to invest in Vermont (link here: http://www.thinkvermont.com/publications/pdf/brand_study.pdf. Three businesses this month appeared to confirm the obvious. The Weidman Company of Saint Johnsbury needed to grow. They studied their options, and did not choose Vermont. VP John Goodrich said according to the AP, "We are extremely busy. In Vermont companies are left in limbo; they don't know what is possible, and what is not. Vermont's corporate taxes are among the highest in the nation. It is critical for Vermont to re-orient to being a state with a modicum of competitiveness."

According to Ms. Licie of Bellow Falls, "The Chamberlain Machine Company was in Rockingham for sixty-five years. They are now building a 40,000 square foot building in New Hampshire." Miguel's of Stowe thrived for thirty years, but has now shut its doors this month, citing "slumping sales and skyrocketing costs" according to the Stowe Reporter.

In the last few years, unemployment in Vermont has grown by about a third, from three percent to four percent. Under-employment measured by the Tax Department suggests that the working poor are making less. Under Governor Douglas, Vermont had moved to the most highly taxed state. Give the keys to the Democrats. Let them kill the Golden Goose quickly instead of bleeding it to death so that we can start over.


CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?

Speaker Symington wrote in the Free Press that Vermonters chose not to send a message to the legislature as they turned down only the same number of school budgets on town meeting day as last year. Thus voters have stopped asking for property tax reform. Of course the rates of increases were lots less this year than last, but that seemed to have been missed by the Speaker.

Just in the last week, Essex Junction turned down its school budget, the state's largest. Windsor voters rejected both the town and school budgets for a second time this year. In Pittsfield, they turned down an $850,000 bond issue. In Enosburg, they turned down a $1,300,000 town office. In Plymouth, the school board chair quit in frustration. But the Speaker says the voters are happy, no reform is necessary.

THE CRAZIES ARE RUNNING THE ASYLUM

So what is the legislature's response: more taxes, fees, and surcharges. As the Governor said today, "After meeting with the Speaker and the Senate pro tem at the beginning of the session and agreeing that Vermonters could not afford more taxes, we heard about the property transfer tax increase, the gas tax increase, the new car sales tax increase, and the fuel tax increase. Now we hear about the trying to raise money from Vermont Yankee/Entergy. As one of their executives said, "When is a deal a deal?"

"They say that extracting more money from Entergy will not affect ratepayers as its rates are locked in. True, but only for the next five years. Then Entergy can pass those costs on to Vermont's ratepayers."

GOVERNING COALITION

Here is the problem. According to the Census Bureau, Vermont's per capita income is $38,306. Look in the paper. Most of the jobs on offer are in government, education, or health care, all government supported. But the state is asking people making only $38,000 to support people making $47,000. It can not last.

The average income for teachers is $46,000 plus benefits of health care, retirement and much more, effectively over $60,000 per year. The mainstay of the Democratic coalition is the teacher's union, endorsing zero Republicans in the one hundred and eighty-nine chances in each and every election. In thirty-eight years of brilliant effort, VT-NEA has effectively raised teacher's pay from lower middle class income to upper middle class income. The union will resist any effort to lower its members' pay and benefits, thereby making true property tax reform impossible.

Another pillar of the left is the Vermont State Employees Union. The average income for state employees is $47,000 plus benefits of health care and retirement. The state employees union has done well for their members. The Union protects its members' interest and therefore there will no meaningful workman's compensation reform for Vermont business.


THE HOUSE THAT JACK COULDN'T BUILD

Part of the original theory of property taxation was to keep property in use. With the property tax, you would not be able to horde property. You had to put it to work, earn a return from it. Otherwise the taxes would kill you. No aristocratic hoarding of land in the New World. In Vermont there are three strategies to avoid that intent.

Affordable housing is not available in part because so much developable land and/or its development rights are bought up by tax deductible dollars donated by the well-to-do who wish peace and quiet. Therefore, the supply of land is artificially reduced by the Vermont Land Trust and other land trusts, partners in the Democratic coalition. The law of supply and demand prevails, less land available, higher prices for land that is.

In addition is the current use tax coalition which works to keep the current use plan in effect for larger pieces of land: if you keep your land in current use, the state defrays the taxes. For example, this year if you owned land appraised at $351,000 without current use, your taxes would be $4,800; with current use your taxes are $421.

Who owns the large pieces of land; the upper class whose incomes are increasing in a double digit fashion according to the state economists, yet are subsidized by middle and lower income people whose incomes are decreasing according to the Vermont Department of Taxes. As many of the wealthy landowners are part of the Democrat governing coalition, there will be no current use reform.

Affordable housing is not available not just because the normal supply and demand model has been interrupted by the conservation folks; once you find land zoned for housing, the permit process is years long. In that the Conservation Law Foundation and the other stop-and-delay folks are part of the Democratic coalition, there will be no permit reform.

The wilderness lobby is part of the Democratic coalition. They remove land for hunting, fishing, logging, snowmobiling, and four wheeling. Not only does this hurt the logger, it removes the working landscape folks talk about.

SHOOTING OURSELVES IN THE FOOT

Losing GOP house candidate from Pomfret Scott Milne told us, "I think that Vermont is missing out on the economic prosperity that much of the rest of the country enjoys. We are losing the middle class. There are many good jobs in Vermont which go unfilled, often because people cannot find affordable housing."

Governor Jim Douglas tells the same story; business people are constantly telling him that they lose good recruits as folks cannot find suitable and affordable housing. It is so bad that Douglas proposed a streamlined Act 250 permit process for the state to develop housing. All developers would like that, need that.

STICK IT TO THE MAN

The saying used to be "stick it to the man." In Vermont, the saying should be "stick it to the little man." For lack of property tax reform and current use fairness, many lower income homeowners are seeing their property disappear and their traditions and way of life taken away from them.

The beer tax sticks it to the little man. The fuel tax sticks it to the little man. The cigarette tax sticks it to the little man. The property tax, either directly or via the landlord, sticks it to the little man. Non-progressive vehicle registration fees stick it to the little man. The current use program sticks it to the little man. The state employees' contract sticks it to the little man. The teacher contract sticks it to the little man. Land conservation sticks it to the little man. The wilderness folks stick it to the little man.


DEMOCRAC...............Y

Someone said that democracy works until the majority figures out that they can take the money from the minority. Vermont has arrived in the place where democracy is not working. Recall the democracy sculpture between the court house and Kinko's in Burlington. The "Y" is placed atop DEMOCRAC. Democracy is broken.

It is not sustainable to pay public workers twenty-four percent more than the private market workers who support them. But that is where we are, and the gap is growing. And no effort is being made to increase the take of the worker or to reduce the take of the civil servant.

THEY WILL SAVE US OR BANKRUPT US

The Republicans cannot fix this problem today. Only the Democrats can. The members of the Democratic coalition have no place to go. The Democrats do not constantly have to give in to them. What, the teacher's union is going to get mad and switch to the Republicans? Fat chance.

Why do not the Democrats read the tea leaves? Why do they never talk about growing the pie, only dividing the pie? What are the Democrats doing and saying so far in this legislative session? They give us Pre-K and Pre-K-K, raising further the property tax that everyone is complaining about and that they promised to fix. They spend time on global warming, the Iraq resolution, and impeachment. They try our patience.

IN MY HAND, I HOLD...

Jim Douglas promised to get us wired, for sound, words, and data. It was therefore surprising to read in the Free Press that in the $4,700,000,000 state budget, just $450,000 was included for wireless and broadband expansion. Senator Pat Leahy's office crowed about finding $50,000 to help broadband in Greensboro and surrounding towns. This is not a serious effort to build the next superhighway.

It is not just that the Vermont economy is nowhere in e-commerce in America. According to Business Week, the United States in networked readiness fell from number one in the world in 2005 to number seven in 2006. Amazing. And Vermont is ranked only thirty-seventh in providing e-government according to a study by Brown University. The Telecommunications Bill sailed through the House one hundred and thirty-two to two, but it calls for the super highway authority to borrow money to build it so they will come. We hope that they do, we hope that they prosper, we hope that the money invested returns us a high dividend.

For more on the Brown University study, go to: http://www.brown.edu/Administration/News_Bureau/2006-07/06-006.html


THE CHEESE STANDS ALONE

Our poor junior senator is the socialist of the Scandinavian model now that the Soviet model is in the dustbin of history. The headline read, "Sweden plans to axe the wealth tax in move 'to become a normal country.'" Competitive too, which of course Vermont is not. The wealthy were not paying anyway as they had set up overseas foundations to control their wealth. Or they had become legal residents of countries without wealth taxes. Now only in Vermont, Caracas, and Santa Cruz can Sanders find a fellow traveler.


CALIFLOWERED EARS

Pat Leahy tried to sneak a $2,000,000 earmark onto the emergency war funding bill to honor Jim Jeffords' thirty-two years in Congress with funding for a Jeffords center at UVM. He said that there was a sense of urgency because of Jeffords' failing health. "I am sad to note that his health issues continue."

Just two years ago this week we predicted that Jim Jeffords would drop out of his re-election effort because of failing health. We were chastised at the time. Jeffords' press secretary, Erik Smulson said of our prediction, "'Turncoat Jeffords' clearly did not work for them. Now they have sunk even lower. Senator Jeffords is in excellent health." Right.


KIDNAP AND EARN BILLIONS, HERE'S HOW

The Iranian government, pressed for cash from a demanding citizenry, found an old and dependable revenue model, kidnapping. They arrested, detained, and kidnapped fifteen British soldiers. The price of oil promptly climbed twenty-five percent enriching the bad guys with billions of unjust income.


ALL FOR THE UNION -A BOOK REVIEW

This book is amazing. It holds dozens of letters from Elisha Rhodes to his family in Rhode Island written from the front during the American Civil War. It was sent to us by Robert Rhodes, a great grandchild of Elisha's, a reader of DPR, and a resident of Walpole, NH.

Elisha began service in May, 1861 and served until July, 1865. He began as a private and finished as a twenty-three year old Lieutenant Colonel. He saw action in every significant battle in the Virginia-Maryland theater: Bull Run, Williamsburg, Yorktown, Antietam, Fredricksburg, Gettysburg, Cold Harbor, Spottsylvania, Petersburg, Appomattox, and others.

The letters detail the intimacies of our Civil War, unlike the civil war in Iraq. "June 15, 1862, Mechanicsville, VA. A carriage containing Mrs. General Robert E. Lee of the Rebel Army with her daughter and two other ladies passed our camp escorted by Union Cavalry. She was sent South under the flag of truce.

"February 10, 1863, Falmouth, VA. As firing at pickets is forbidden by each side, the men were allowed to go down to the river banks. We did not allow our men to talk to the Rebels, but they keep up a stream of questions. It seemed queer to see them only a few yards away in their gray clothes. One of their bands played everyday, and we enjoyed the music with them.

"April 14, 1863, Rappahannock River, VA. General Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson came down to the river bank today with a party of ladies and officers. We raised our hats to the party and, strange to say, the ladies waved their handkerchiefs in reply. Several Rebel sentinels told us that it was General Jackson. We could have shot him with a revolver, but we have an agreement that neither side will fire, as it does no good, and in fact is simply murder.

"June 8, 1864, Cold Harbor, VA. The Rebel line is only about two hundred yards from us. Today, we had a flag of truce sent into our line to bury the dead. This gave us a chance to get out of our holes and look at the Rebel works. The Rebels who came with the flag were good natured and ready to talk with us."

And some things do not change. "October 8, 1862, Downsville, MD. The war will not end until the North wakes up. As it is now conducted, it seems to me to be a grand farce. When certain politicians (Bush), Army contractors (Halliburton) and traitors in the North are put out of the way, we shall succeed."


*** THE ROAR OF THE CROWD: EMAIL ***

LEGISLATURE DEBATES EVERYTHING BUT COMMERCE

»» Sandy Albright, Jeffersonville: The timing of your current issue could not have been better planned, as I returned yesterday from a visit to my children and their families. My children, eighth generation Vermonters, had to find jobs outside Vermont in order to earn a living and use their skills. Our eldest is in upper management in the Great Lakes Division of Nationwide Insurance (hmmmm, insurance and banking - green industries) and our youngest is the manager for the Public Safety Division of a Ford Dealership that provides and outfits emergency vehicles for the state and local fire and police agencies (sounds green to me).

"Being moved to work" as I call it, was necessary because of Vermont's unwelcoming and cold business environment. It is easy to see that "moving away to avoid the cold" is not just something Senior Citizens do - it is a business paradigm as well.

Keep up the great work - this issue was especially good reading. By the way- the check is in the mail!


ARE THEY OUT OF THEIR MINDS?

»» Anonymous, Vermont: Who will call the Vermont Senate to the table to justify their waste of time and public monies on such a useless action as impeachment. As a taxpayer I am outraged and disappointed in the system. Several classmates from business school emailed me about this wondering what Vermont is up to and the Financial Times reported on it as well; another step towards "promoting" Vermont.

You would almost think that some of our legislators are proud of their actions just to make their point, and not to do what is best for Vermont: successful businesses creating jobs generating tax revenues to fund programs that will help every Vermonter and not just to feed the ideology of a few dreamers that want to make a name for themselves.

To add insult to injury Senator Shumlin's latest move to hit Vermont Yankee with a $35 million gratuity really tops it. Welcome to our friendly business environment: please invest here and we may just have a nice surprise for you some day!


TIMES SUNDAY (MAD) MAGAZINE

»» Morgan Nields, Englewood, CO: Is this why I really don't believe anything I read in the NY Times? I thought reporters were supposed to vet Looney tunes? GEE, ANOTHER APOLOGY PUNCH!


NOT OOPS - UUPS

»» Ralph Colin, Dorset: You got one wrong. It was Edward R. MURROW [not Morrow]. He was a very close friend of my father and, in fact, I met him on several occasions. He was my idol when I was ten years old and planned to be a radio newsman. Ed was one of the very first journalists to enter Berlin when in was captured by the Allies. He walked into the Reichstag, freely roamed about and on one desk, found a Luftwaffe ceremonial short sword which he "liberated." Subsequently, when he returned to New York, he presented it to my father and said, "Give this to Ralph." I still have it; it’s one of my prized possessions.

* * *

»» Bruce Shields, Eden: It's George Weightman [Ready, Shoot, Fire], whose family live in Eden (my town).


PRE-K

»» Wes Hrydziusko, North Windsor: Smith is off her rocker on pre-K and pre-pre-K or whatever. The whole world is going nuts.

* * *

»» Mary Barrosse Schwartz, East Dorset: Hey, no fair on the dead blond pharma rep bit! The NIH study shows that kids in poor quality child care have poor outcomes. It makes the case for kids, who need care while their parents work, to have access to high quality prek that teaches positive social interaction. The bill under consideration allows a 20 year old practice of funding 10 hours per week of prek to continue with high quality standards. Business people like this bill - for short and long term work force issues.

Editor's note: Under Federal law, Special Ed kids & peer models in Early Essential Education programs were funded by the state 18 years ago. Period. Obviously the state wasn't paying for general pre-K education before Act 60 in 1997 - the towns handled whatever programs their citizens endorsed. The state started letting schools siphon off money to expand pre-K after Act 60 was in effect, and (some say illegally) established "rules" in 1999.


THEY LIKE US

»» Mark Shepard, Bennington: I have really enjoyed and appreciated your last two reports.

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*** QUOTABLE ***

TO TELL THE TRUTH, THE WHOLE TRUTH

"Kerry said his decision not to run for president in 2008 allowed him to speak the truth on environmental issues." --Associated Press, April 8, 2007


WHITE BOYS SHOCKED

"This entire experience has opened my eyes up to a tragic world of injustice I never knew existed. If police officers and a district attorney can systematically railroad us with absolutely no evidence whatsoever, I can't imagine what they'd do to people who do not have the resources to defend themselves. So rather than relying on disparaging stereotypes and creating political and racial conflicts, all of us need to take a step back from this case and learn from it." --Duke lacrosse player Reade Seligmann, New York Times, April 12, 2007


TALKING THE TALK

"Political Correctness is a doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical liberal minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end." (--circulating via email)


VERMONT'S ECONOMIC PLAN

"For example, Ms. Segolene Royal's idea about how to reduce France's 8.5 percent unemployment rate: Create 500,000 new civil-service jobs. These will be most entry level jobs for kids, but in a bureaucracy like France's all things remain, even as they float." --Denis Boyles, National Review, April 23, 2007


BYE BYE IBM

"Intel is to build a $2.5 billion advanced chip-making plant in China its first major production site in Asia." --New York Times, March 27, 2007

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James Dwinell, editor-in-chief of this newsletter, is available for speaking engagements on a variety of political topics. 
Contact: dwinell@comcast.net for more information.



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