Please note that there have been changes to the web site copy of our March 6, 2007 issue. Our original effort needlessly offended many. We could have made our points without such offense and have done so with a few edits. We apologize to our readers and the many senators, representatives, and members of the media whom we offended. We also embarrassed ourselves. We regret having done so.

THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES

Some folks smell blood. For the first time in years, Democrats think that they have a chance against Jim Douglas. And maybe they do. What has happened?

Douglas handled Scudder Parker, though it was not easy. It was a job well done by Douglas and his team of Neale Lunderville and Jim Barnett, the boys who combined to pull out a victory against the odds and beat Doug Racine in 2002. They rolled up Peter Clavelle in 2004 and Scudder in 2006. Now, the old gang has split; Neale is working hard fixing bridges and culverts as Secretary of Transportation and Jim Barnett is off to help John McCain grab the White House.

LEFT FOR OPPORTUNITY OR BECAUSE OF CRITICISM?

Barnett left because he felt overworked and under appreciated. An amazing workhorse, he put in a tremendous effort in helping to re-elect Douglas and Dubie, and yet he was blamed by many for the steady loss of seats in the house and senate, now at the lowest number of seats since James Buchanan was president. He began his tenure as the result of an in-house coup by Douglas who asked the elected chair of VTGOP Joe Acinapura to resign to be replaced by Barnett.

There are many constituencies for a chair to please: Douglas, the party faithful, house and senate leaders, and donors including key lobbyists. You can't please everybody.

In the recent race to replace Barnett as chair, each person Douglas anointed, openly or behind the scenes, lost. The grumblings in the party were such that they wanted their man/woman, not Douglas'.

WHERE IS THE LOVE?

This must be frustrating for Douglas. Other than Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie, he is the only star of the party. For 150 years, there has been a United States Republican senator or congressman, but none now. In the last fifteen years, there have been Republicans holding constitutional statewide offices, speaker of the house, and senate pro tem. Today, there is only Douglas and Dubie.

SLIPPERY SLOPE

Recently, there was a tragedy in Thetford. Kati Eaton, a twenty year old, tragically died in a snowmobile accident. Unknown to most, her brother Daniel is the troubled boy who took over the local Thetford Merchants Bank one day last August in order to gain the attention to talk with his mental health counselor. This tragedy ended peacefully with Eaton being sentenced to three to fifteen years in jail.

WHERE WAS THE COMMON SENSE?

The Eaton family asked Corrections for permission for Daniel to attend his sister's funeral. After some effort, Corrections said okay, but said that he would have to wear his prison uniform and be shackled. His former representatives heard of his plight and made calls to the Lieutenant Governor's office. In less than a day, Daniel was issued a 24-hour pass from prison to the custody of his family and allowed to attend his sister's funeral in civilian clothes.

Martha Hanson, Dubie's administrative assistant, told DPR, "I was very surprised by the reaction. We received so many calls and letters thanking Brian for his efforts." People close to the effort to change the position of Corrections noted with some satisfaction that only Dubie was called, not Douglas.

HEAD BANGER

Douglas must be very frustrated by all this. Douglas attends almost every GOP event in the state. He knows everyone by name. He appoints people from the "Blue Book", a listing of every member of every town, county, and state Republican committee, to the many boards and commissions of state government. Why would the members turn on him?

In the Capitol, the press has begun to badger him. There have always been the questions from Seven Days' columnist Peter Freyne, questions regarding the national and international policies of the Bush administration, tied to Douglas by Freyne as Douglas is the former chair of the Bush for Vermont Committee and a frequenter of the Lincoln Bedroom.

MEDIA NOT FREE AND FAIR

Lately, other members of the press, first Vermont Press Bureau's Darren Allen and now VPR's Bob Kinzel, have taken a very aggressive tone to their questions, needling really. Their questions appear to have been given them directly by the opposition. After Douglas would make a point, Allen or Kinzel would retort, "But they say that..."

The media is mostly liberal in Vermont. It is a shame that the media does not recognize how lucky they are to have an hour with the governor every week to ask any question of interest.

LIAR, LIAR

Senate pro tem Peter Shumlin appears committed to replacing Douglas as governor. Shumlin is a top drawer politician, smart and clever, and constantly sniping at Douglas, drawing blood as he goes. The Capitol hall wags have even dubbed Jim Douglas "acting governor" when Shumlin is out of the state.

Back when Jim Barnett ran the opposition research and the quick response team, one comment from Shumlin today would be compared to previous comments stating just the opposite yesterday. Take for example his comment about gay marriage, "It will not pass, we will not waste any time on it." Barnett with his amazing opposition research operation, would quote Shumlin's junior high school project on civil rights, his comments in 1996 that plaintiff Stan Baker deserved not just gay marriage but a Medal of Freedom from the President, and so forth.

Bang, bang, and the sniper is constantly sniped. Now the field is clear. New VTGOP Chair Rob Roper is just beginning to gear up his response team. But instead of Douglas' clear sailing, he is dodging bullets from his opponents. No fun.

HOUSE OF MIRTH

There is no discipline within the GOP members of the House and Senate, and there is no disciplinarian. From 1996 to 2002 there was Walt Freed and his consigliere George McNeil. But since then, wanderlust. The GOP legislators appear to have purchased the bill of goods from the Democrats: to do anything for your constituents, you must toe the Democrat party line.

Tom Edmonds commented regarding the national race for Congress that the Democrats won because they were not Republicans, and the Republicans lost because they too were not Republicans. Vermont Republicans cannot return to power being “Democrats lite.”
Republicans need to stand for opportunity, lower taxes, fairer taxes, and reforms of regulations, permitting, and workman’s compensation. These are issues which are important to keep Vermont attractive to its residents and would be residents. And they need to stand together.

TOWN MEETING DAY

Harsh stereotypes but as with any stereotype, there is usually an ounce of truth. Regardless, who is still on the team, who runs the team, and who is the disciplinarian? What was the message they carried home this town meeting day? All is well, we are all working so hard, we will fix the property tax? This is not a competitive message. This is a "peace in our time" message of capitulation.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

Douglas had planned on serving two "four-year terms, meaning" four two-year terms. He has one race left to run. But some of his party faithful have abandoned him, his trusted political advisors are gone, the media has become more aggressively antagonistic and partisan, and his potential opponents are real Democrats with solid constituencies and highly tuned political skills.

All this must be very frustrating, confusing, and disappointing for Douglas. From looking at another re-election and perhaps a chance to become a United States Senator if Senator Pat Leahy choose not to run in 2010, Douglas now is looking at ending his long career, having received more votes than any other Vermont politician, in a two year dog fight just to become a lame duck. This is an undeserved fate, but who said that politics is fair.

STAFF SHUFFLING

He is now somewhat isolated. He has had former VTGOP folks on his staff, Neale Lunderville, Jim Barnett, and Susie Hudson. Now there are none. He has Tim Hayward and Betsy Bishop, two former lobbyists who helped him win back in 2002. Douglas has told friends who have suggested that he might make some staff changes that you dance with the people who brought you.

Douglas has some decisions to make: run or not run. If he runs, how to rebuild his political staff? If he wins, what is his lame duck strategy? He has political capital; will he spend it? Dubie beat Shumlin in 2002, could he do it again? Will Speaker Symington brush Shumlin aside as have others?

BACK TO THE FUTURE

Jim Douglas obviously believes that enough is enough. He is taking his show on the road, appearing at two affordability gatherings this week. In the long run, Douglas does not have to worry lots about Shumlin. Shumlin, though a clear pain in the butt, cannot get to 50 percent plus one of the vote. Many people, especially women, are uncomfortable with him. The adage you can't fool all the people all the time applies.

THE JOY OF POLITICS

One would have hoped that the now two-month old legislature would have understood that their job was to solve the crisis of affordability, to reduce the overwhelming burden of the property tax, and to remove or reform the CLA, Common Level of Appraisal.

One might have suggested, okay boys and girls, we owe something to our constituents: we all promised a property tax/CLA fix. It will take many minds to root out this problem. Let's forsake for now gay marriage, assisted suicide, medical marijuana, gender benders, student scholarships, health care, drug pricing, and so forth.

But no. Assisted suicide is an interesting topic under the dome. It brings tears to harden chair people. Oregon has had assisted suicide for ten years. No other state has taken up the challenge since. Why Vermont? Because it is cheap, it is small, and a few dollars go a long way. If the suicide lobby can succeed here, they move on to bigger and better things. Just like civil unions. First in Vermont, then Mexico, Canada, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey and the world.

FOLLOW THE MONEY

According to the suicide lobby, the locals are raising $70,000 in Vermont to be matched by their national partners, the National Campaign for Care Management, almost five to one or $325,000 more. Such a bucolic name, care management so that we can kill off granny.

How has assisted suicide worked in Oregon? Over ten years, two hundred and ninety folks have asked for suicide drugs. They do not know for sure how many have pulled the trigger so to speak. For Vermont based on its population, Oregon's experience suggests that there would be three to five requests a year. Wow, all this testimony, money, news articles, television advertisements, and time spent to assist three people to kill themselves.

Interestingly, the proponents say that polling has concluded that almost everybody loves the idea. Yet no poll question including the word "suicide" has ever had fifty percent support. But if you test questions, get the wording just right, you can ask a question relating to dignity and gain majority support.

WHAT'S IT ALL ABOUT?

We understand that we are all going to die. We understand that death is a topic of literature, poetry, paintings, ballet, and opera. There is lots of interest, lots of fascination, and lots of thought. Yet, what is all this about? Buckets of money, polling, television ads, and testimony from around the nation so that three people can ask for help. Do they just want to shove granny into her grave, take her money and run? Do they want to be able to control everything, just like your land?

Vermont in the last data we found ranked twenty-first in suicide. Folks already seem to know how to kill themselves. Firearms are the most effective, working over ninety-three percent of the time. Poisoning yourself as suggested here with too many drugs works only five percent of the time. For years doctors have been prescribing morphine for "pain management" while they know that morphine is used to hasten death. Hospice does a wonderful job of helping you cross the finish line.

Interestingly, we are already doing well with accidental death by drugs. Last year, accidental prescription drug fatalities were the second leading cause of accidental death after car accidents. Allowing advertising of drugs sure has worked out well.

DON'T BOGART THAT JOINT MY FRIEND

The Senate Health and Welfare Committee voted unanimously to broaden the medical marijuana bill. Why? Not enough people are smoking dope. Since the bill was passed in 2004, there were only eighteen applications in 2005 and eleven in 2006. One application was denied.

In that they were not sure whether the intent in 2004 was to allow marijuana for specific diseases or just to broaden its legal use, the 2007 legislature chose the later. They increased the number of plants you could possess from one to six mature plants, from two to eighteen growing plants, and from two to four ounces of ready to go pot.

They changed a narrow group of specific diseases which had some pain relief with marijuana use to a broad definition of, "any life threatening, progressive and debilitating disease or medical condition..." You chose, you feel pain, smoke a joint. Philosophy trumps science.

ALL WORK AND NO PLAY

Senate pro tem Peter Shumlin made the interesting observation that the legislature has made good progress on the property tax issue for the six weeks that it had been at work. Yes, but of course the legislature has been paid for nine weeks, the first three we not for work but for religion; global warming.

THE NEW VTGOP

In an interview with new chairman of VTGOP, Rob Roper gave us an idea of his priorities, saying, "We need to build a fundraising team, work on recruitment, and communicate broader themes. There is a lot of energy at the grass roots level. We need to tap into that."

Roper acknowledged some frustration within the party about its low numbers in the legislature. However, he said, "Jim Barnett did a terrific job. The statewide candidates worked hard. No one should come in for any criticism. There was a huge Democratic wave, and in Vermont the wave was much higher."

LOCK 'EM UP

For years Howard Dean played sheriff, locking them up and throwing away the key. Suddenly, he had no jail rooms left to lock up. So he built more jails. And still he had more prisoners. So he shipped them to commercial prisons hither and yon effectively cutting off visiting privileges.

Today, prisons remain crowded as Vermont has the fifth fastest growing con population. Up to eighty-five percent of offenders are there because of drug and alcohol abuse. No matter, no treatment, just lock them up. Now the bill has come due, maybe we cannot afford this policy. The legislature says that we cannot build our way out of the problem.

Juxtaposed to the prison story in the paper was a low-income academic progress story. Low income boys are not performing well. For example, in Randolph Elementary, low income boys scored a zero for the writing skills test. In Williamstown Middle School low income boys scored a seven. Low income kids perhaps need more structure in their lives, but that is not what Vermont prides itself on. We love open classrooms and the lowest student/teacher ratios in the country. Larger class sizes require more structure, more discipline, helping the low income boys, but that is not us. Jail costs $42,000 per year; cost per student is about $11,000. Philosophy 101 is expensive.

WHERE IS BERNIE?

Putting on the Ritz. Bernie and his dear wife have been frequenting the Naples, Florida Ritz, gathering with all the other millionaires. The loud anti-outsourcing king largely outsourced all of his campaign services to non-Vermont firms. Words and deeds are not one.

WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD

According to the National Taxpayers Union, Vermont has the worst congressional delegation in the country. Vermont's delegation voted with the National Taxpayers Union only eleven percent of the time. The closest competitor is the delegation from Massachusetts, which voted with the Union fourteen percent of the time.

WORDS ARE ALL I HAVE

President George Bush put the wood to us twice with only twenty words in his State of the Union address: "We must continue investing in new methods of producing ethanol...and double the current capacity of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve."

With those words the price of oil, which was just at or below $50 a barrel, jumped to over $60, and the price of corn jumped so high that many Mexicans could no longer afford tortillas.

HOW THE OTHER HALF LIVES

Leo DiCaprio told us how the Academy Awards are now green, having no impact on global warming. He of course did not include the hundreds of idling, very slow moving, and cruising limousines that had brought him and the others to the Academy Awards at a miles-per-gallon rate in the single digits.

Al Gore, the weather god worshiped by the thespians, has a global footprint big enough for Sasquatch, a mere twenty rooms for Al and Tipper to wander plus a pool and a pool house. Not to be out done, that tireless campaigner for the poor, presidential candidate John Edwards just moved into a 10,778 square foot hacienda with an additional 15,600 square feet of play space including a gym, pool, and Edwards' personal lounge.

CONGRATULATIONS DPR

We have been selected by http://www.redstate.com/StateBlogs to be part of their web listings. Their criteria is, "We have only listed those that we have reviewed and found to be regularly updated, focused on politics, and right of center."

STILL NO DPR! FYI

»» Daniel Foty: FYI, the DPR was sover.net filtered into the spam box again. I was looking at the header information about how it was getting a too-high spam score; apparently, many of the words which you used (in a "normal" way) were scoring points as possible pornography. It seems that spam filters have a better sense of the situation in Vermont than does the legislature....

Editor's note: Be sure to "whitelist" <MailGuy@DwinellPoliticalReport.com> so this won't happen to you! Also, if you forward the DPR, be sure to remove the "unsubscribe" link at the bottom lest someone else click on it...

THE GREAT EXPERIMENT

»» Martin Harris, Jonesborough, TN (formerly from Brandon): Kudos on one of the best-written pieces you've done. I think you're looking at pieces of what, in total, might be called "The Great Experiment", whether a small state can exist on the base of a trust-funder economy, with a shrinking middle class and a growing subsidized under-class and a passive-income or government-employed over-class.

In this model, capital formation, industry, and serious commerce aren't really needed, and business and commerce are needed only to meet the basic consumer requirements of a predominantly non-productive population, apparently wealthy and willing enough to pay the taxes for sets of services which in other States are far less expensive and also far more heavily subsidized by non-residential land uses and income sources. We shall see.

As for me, I'm now one of those oldsters you write about, who has fled. And yes, my property taxes are now $400 a year, about a tenth of what they were in Vermont, with a much larger village lot and a much smaller house.

One statistical anecdote: here in Washington County, TN, the local papers have just reported, all the public schools have accomplished the Annual Yearly Progress requirement of No Child Left Behind. I get the Vermont papers, and have read in them that most VT school districts have not, for all schools in the district, and have failed for various reasons, chief among them, a supposed under-funding.

Here the average class size is 20, almost twice what it is in VT, and the average annual per-pupil cost is just under $7000, compared to about $12000 in VT. Test scores (on the national NAEP tests, not the local easier ones preferred for publicity purposes by Vt edu-crats) in 4th grade reading, for example, are at 222 for the white cohort of the enrollment, not too far from VT's 228 for an all-white (statistically) enrollment.

In both states, as for the nation as a whole, about 2/3 of 4th graders can't make "proficient" which means they can't perform, academically, at the expectation level for the grade they're in. Vermont's under-performance costs the taxpayer there $5000 more per student per year than here.

VERMONT AS AN OLD FOLKS HOME

»» Pete Chagnon, Burlington: As the father of five and a native of this state, I can attest to the lack of a future for our youngsters up here. Back in the 50 and 60's, Vermont was being faced with the same issues of losing her youth out of state. While in Chittenden County, we had IBM and GE among the bigger employers in the private sector, the machine and tool shops in southern Vermont as the bigger employers, along with the State of Vermont (the biggest employer), our young people were still leaving the state.

Why? Back then it was wages and benefits offered by employers. While Vermont was doing well, especially in comparison to today, it was better elsewhere. Now, that is even more of an issue as Vermont has fallen behind the times in the "global" economy. You can compare our system of primary education to the dinosaur with its focus on "diversity" rather than academics, the regulatory process, which as you pointed out is extremely burdensome, and the lack of affordable health care (why does Vermont cost so much above the rest of the nation?).

But mainly, it's the nut cases who permeate this state, those rejects from the 60's who wish to turn this state into a nursing home for the aged radicals. The young people have seen through this charade, they have seen the impact on their future by these flashback radicals and decided it's time to get out of Dodge. No matter what Douglas may propose or work towards, until the mentality of this state is changed, we will continue to see a decline of the young and a burdening of the system by an ever increasing older population that is more intent on reliving the 60's than providing for this state's future.

I know because that has been told to me by my son in Maryland. He left because he saw no future here 10 years ago. He now has his own production studio, works in radio, is shifting into television, has had opportunities that he would never have had if he stayed here, not to mention the good college education he was able to afford out of here. That is the reality and nothing any politician says up here will change that.

CUT AND RUN AT 71

»» Bob (Sam )Houston: I agree with you that Vermont is not generally the place to be if you are young, making an income (small or large), etc.

However, you have not given their due to retirees who have made their money (probably elsewhere), and are young enough to not be taking their minimum required distributions yet (from IRAs probably acquired elsewhere). For this select group (I am proudly a member), Vermont is not too bad: quiet, progressive, and very kind about real-estate tax refunds. I ignore the "blue state" trivia, and take maximum advantage of being a moderately high net-worth, but low income individual. Is this behavior wrong?

This situation will (unfortunately) end when MRD time (age 71) rolls around and my income (Vermont style) bumps up. Then, I will have to think about leaving God's country (Vermont), and going to a more tax-friendly state. It will have been a wonderful 15 years.

...OR LEAVE SOONER

»» David Jardine, Tunnel Hill, GA (formerly of Lyndonville): You made mention of Georgians talking about $400 property tax bills. I live in a scenic area of northeast Georgia, near Lookout Mountain and Chattanooga, TN. My property taxes this year were $830 on a house probably worth $200,000 in Vermont. Our teachers are paid above the national average and Georgia also sends kids to Georgia colleges tuition-free if they maintain a B average. As I am now retired I will be paying nothing for state income taxes; Our sales tax is 6%. I cannot believe Vermont keeps sending these lefties to Montpelier and Washington, but at the same time hear many natives say that they never vote anyway.

I lived in Lyndonville for over 50 years, left when St. Johnsbury Trucking went under, first to North Carolina then Tunnel Hill, GA. Still own a camp on Shadow Lake in Glover we use in the summer but probably will sell it soon as taxes are around $2000 NOW and who knows what next year. (The "camp" is just that, no central water or heat.) Sad to see Vermont go the way it has. I think we would have moved back to be closer to the kids, in spite of the weather, but I figured it would cost me a minimum of $500-700 more a month to live in Vermont.

THEY LIKE US

»» Rich Heurtley, Richford: The excellence of the Dwinell Political Report compels me to do something difficult; write a check.

»» John McClaughry, Kirby: I always find James stimulating and very well informed, and recommend becoming a subscriber to his e-letter

WHO ARE YOU WORKING FOR?

"You either write for the government or you write about the government. As a columnist, you do not do both - or certainly not without disclosing your lucrative conflict of interest." --Andrew Bolt, Sydney Herald Sun, 2/22/07

PROFILES IN COURAGE

"Swing voters want Congress to stand up to President Bush more aggressively regarding Iraq, according to new focus groups sponsored by Democrats. 'People are angry,' says a Democrat with access to the research. These findings, more anti-Bush and anti-Iraq war than public surveys, help explain why Democrats seem so eager for a showdown with Bush over the war." --US News and World Reports, 2/25/07

TO KNOW MONTPELIER

"Key Lawmakers Complain of Weak Intelligence" --Headline from the Washington Times, 3/5/07

JUICED IN DAYS OF YORE

"In George Washington times, the average American consumed five gallons of distilled spirits per year; today we consume only one point eight gallons per year." --The Wall Street Journal

PEACE LOVE AND TIE-DYE

"Only fifty-seven percent of Democrats questioned would support the deployment of American troops against a known terrorist camp." --The New Yorker, 1/15/07

THE LOSERS

"The Democrats won because they were not Republicans. The Republicans lost because they were not Republicans either." --Tom Edmonds, Campaigns and Elections, 2/07

THE MARKET WOULD SOLVE THE PROBLEM

"Trying to save his job, first and second grade teacher Henri Moser proposed forgoing both health insurance and a pay raise for the next school year." --Stowe Reporter, 1/18/07

Do you enjoy the Dwinell Political Report? Think of a voluntary subscription. For $25, you can receive the newsletter for a year and help offset the costs of production. Make checks payable to JDLS Publishing, LLC and mail to 610 Mason Road, Randolph, VT 05060.

The Dwinell Political Report is published weekly by JDLS Publishing, LLC.
Portions of the Dwinell Political Report may be reprinted with attribution.

Contact the Editor with news & comments at: dwinell@comcast.net or 802.728.4793

The mission of the Dwinell Political Report is to give readers another view of the news that is refreshing, provocative and sometimes irreverent.